Search this site

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Instrument : Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Sector : CRYPTOCURRENCY / DIGITAL ASSETS Closing Price : $92,466 1D Change : +1.05% Multi-Frame Action : 🟢 Rebound (D) 🟡 Stabilization (W) 🟢 Bullish (M) Technical Upside : Resistance at $98,000. Target: $100,000 (~8%). Psychological Reclaim. Momentum Signal : Extreme Impulse (Short Term Overheated) Risk / Invalidation : Close below $84,000 Valuation : Risk-On / Monetary Network Primary Driver : Global liquidity cycles & Spot ETF inflows. MARKET STRUCTURE & VOLUME VALIDATION Volume Profile : Volume remains relatively muted (833.99) compared to the capitulation spikes seen during the drop to $84,000. This suggests a "supply shock" recovery where prices are drifting higher due to a lack of sellers rather than aggressive new volume—caution is warranted until volume expands. Liquidity Zones : A significant base has formed at the $84,000 – $86,000 level, creating a structural floor. The price is currently grinding upward through a low-liquidity vacuum. The primary overhead target is the psychological $100,000 level, which coincides with previous structural support turned resistance. Divergences : A potential "Hidden Bullish Divergence" is playing out. The momentum indicators have snapped back aggressively while price is still recovering, indicating internal strength is building faster than price action reflects. RELATIVE STRENGTH (SECTOR & INDEX) vs. Altcoins : Dominant. Bitcoin continues to lead the recovery, likely sucking liquidity from smaller caps as confidence returns to the sector. vs. Nasdaq 100 : Correlated. The recovery aligns with broader risk-on sentiment in tech equities, suggesting macro tailwinds are assisting the move. SCENARIO ANALYSIS (RISK MANAGEMENT) Bull Case (Primary) : The momentum indicators are screaming "Impulse." If buyers can push through the $95,000 local resistance, a squeeze toward $100,000 is highly probable. A daily close above $93,500 validates the current impulse. Bear Case (Alternative) : The momentum is extremely heated (Yellow/Red lines > 90). If price stalls here without expanding volume, a "mean reversion" pullback to retest $88,000 is likely. A close below $84,000 invalidates the entire recovery structure. MOMENTUM PROFILE : BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Daily Chart (Standard) Outlook : Violent Reversal / Impulse Ultra Short Term : Extreme — The yellow line (2-period) is pinned at 98.17, a near-maximum reading. This indicates panic buying or a violent short squeeze is effectively in play right now. Short Term : Extreme — The red line (3-period) is at 93.69, confirming the intensity of the short-term move. Mid Term : Strong — The green line (78.32) has surged into the upper tier, pulling the medium-term trend out of neutral. Base Term : Bullish — The blue baseline (61.85) has successfully crossed the midline, signaling that the broader trend has shifted back to positive despite the recent correction. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range  high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range  may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Instrument: Spot Gold (XAUUSD) Sector: COMMODITIES / PRECIOUS METALS Closing Price: $4,406 1D Change: +1.70% Multi-Frame Action: 🟢 Bullish (D) 🟢 Bullish (W) 🟢 Bullish (M) Technical Upside: Resistance at $4,550. Target: $4,650 (~5.5%). Trend Resumption. Momentum Signal: Aggressive Rebound Risk / Invalidation: Close below $4,300 Valuation: Safe Haven / Hedge Primary Driver: Central bank accumulation & Lower real yields. MARKET STRUCTURE & VOLUME VALIDATION Volume Profile: The bounce from the $4,300 lows is supported by average to rising volume, validating the rejection of lower prices. The price action shows a clean "V-shape" recovery, reclaiming the $4,400 level immediately. Liquidity Zones: The $4,300 level has confirmed itself as a significant short-term floor (demand zone). Price has rotated sharply off this level. The immediate overhead target is the liquidity pool sitting above recent highs at $4,500 – $4,550. Divergences: No bearish divergences. The rapid snap-back in the momentum indicators (Yellow/Red lines) confirms genuine buying pressure rather than a weak dead-cat bounce. RELATIVE STRENGTH vs. USD (DXY): Strong. Gold is rising despite potential dollar fluctuations, showing clear idiosyncratic strength. vs. Commodities: Leader. Gold continues to outperform the broader commodity complex (Energy/Base Metals), acting as the primary defensive capital flow destination. SCENARIO ANALYSIS (RISK MANAGEMENT) Bull Case (Primary): The rapid reclamation of $4,400 suggests the correction is complete. If the daily close holds above $4,400, the path is open to retest the ATH at $4,550. A break there targets trend extension to $4,650. Bear Case (Alternative) : Rejection at $4,420 could see the price rotate back into the $4,350 – $4,300 range. A close below the swing low of $4,300 would damage the immediate bullish structure and expose $4,100. MOMENTUM PROFILE: Daily Chart (Standard) Outlook: Aggressive Recovery Ultra Short Term: Strong — The yellow line (2-period) has spiked aggressively to 82.38, indicating a powerful surge in immediate buying pressure. Short Term: Bullish — The red line (3-period) has crossed back into the "Strong" tier (66.21), confirming the bounce has legs. Mid Term: Neutral/Bullish — The blue trend indicators are curling upward from the midline (~60), suggesting the medium-term trend is realigning with the primary uptrend. Base Term: Bullish — The baseline remains well above the 50 level (58.01), confirming the macro bull trend was never threatened by the recent dip. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range  high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range  may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Short term traders, consider taking full or partial profits on the share. Medium term traders = hold, with a trailing stop-loss. Previous Post (02 December): Investec Ltd: Early Buy Re-Entry Trigger + Probability of Small Rebound on Higher Time Frame Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za During December 2025, Absa exceeded our long term target of R220, reaching a high of R240 by early January 2026. The most recent significant chart pattern for Absa was the pennant format just below multi-year highs, which saw the share produce a multi-week advance from below R200 to above R240. Now, a similar pattern is emerging on another JSE listed share. Following a multi-year consolidation and several weeks of tight consolidation, we are stalking the price for a breakout. The most recent highs were 2981c, 2919c and 2752c while we have also seen a series of higher lows. The share has also developed a multi-year base since 2017 from which the price is now attempting to emerge. So, what is the trigger? A break and close above the upper boundary of the pennant and (for now) a weekly close above 2850c would be an early trigger of a bullish momentum thrust. What could invalidate the thesis? A violent break and close below 2370c. What is the potential upside target? 3200c to 3300c What is the share? Pepkor Holdings (PPH) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Sell re-entry reached with bearish reversal + downside follow-through. Previous Post (05 November): British American Tobacco: Momentum Analysis + Key Levels + Actionable Areas Further update: Previous Post (28 September): British American Tobacco: Failure To Hold Prior Highs + Weekly Momentum Lost + RSI (14-Week) Breaking Down BTI Weekly Chart Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The share traded into the buy re-entry range (R148 - R151) with a strong rebound a high of R172 on the first trading day of 2026. Well done short term traders. Previous Post (12 December): 2x Opportunities: One Sell. One Buy. Same Share MTN has given clients opportunities on both the Sell (Short) and Buy (Long) side. Intraday Traders: Take Profits on this MTN Group rebound out of the buy re-entry range. Strong rebound from 14950c to above R158. Ultra Short Term and Short Term Traders: Hold Previous Post (30 November) MTN Group: Shorts in the Money + Where to Buy Next (Short Term Traders) Update on 30-Nov: MTN is now R18 lower from the sell re-entry range, with the share having sold off further on Friday (-2.61%). The candle structure continues to deteriorate, reflecting aggressive selling pressure. For short term/active traders, the next best provisional buy re-entry range (for a small rebound) is 14800c - 15100c. The updated chart, as of Friday's close is shown below: Previous Post (Friday, 28 November, Pre-Market): MTN Group: Shorts in the Money + Where to Buy Next In the previous note, our CORE THESIS was that the share was 'Structurally Bullish, But Extremely Overbought' with 17160c to 17500c was marked as a key resistance level. Since then the share was rejected off this range on multiple occasions with a new multi-week low of 16105c being reached during yesterday's session. The 8 and 21-day EMA has been breached while the price close the session below a flat to rising 8-week EMA. The next best provisional buy re-entry range is marked at the rising 21-week EMA which is roughly in line with the previous breakout level (14867c to 15128c but subject to change as the news flow and price action develops. Trading Notes (Where Applicable): READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. Previous Post MTN Group: Sharp Pullback (-1000c) From Exhaustion Zone (In Line With Note As discussed (exhaustion zone circled in red). 🎥Watch Video: MTN Group - Bullish Reversal From 21-Week EMA (+24%) + Updated View Previous Post (03 September) 🎥Watch: Discussing MTN Group (21-Week EMA Strategy) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Instrument:  NTC (Netcare) Sector:  HEALTHCARE Closing Price:  1,584c 1W Change:  +0.25% Multi-Frame Action:  🟢 Bullish (D) 🟢 Bullish (W) 🟢 Bullish (M) Technical Upside:  Resistance at 1,650c. Target:  1,750c (~10%). Trend Extension. Momentum Signal:  High Bullish (Overbought Watch) Risk / Invalidation:  Close below 1,480c Valuation:  Value / Recovery Primary Driver:  Operational leverage from digitization & share buybacks. MARKET STRUCTURE & VOLUME VALIDATION Volume Profile:  Volume has remained healthy during the ascent, supporting the breakout above the 1,500c level. There is no sign of exhaustion yet, though the pace of buying may slow as it hits overhead resistance. Liquidity Zones:  The 1,450c – 1,500c zone is now a critical demand floor (support). Price is extending away from this base. A sustained hold above 1,550c keeps the path open toward the 1,650c – 1,750c liquidity pools. Divergences:  No major bearish divergences on the daily, but the weekly indicators are becoming stretched (approaching overbought). This suggests a strong trend that may need a brief consolidation or "flagging" period before the next leg higher. NTC Monthly Chart RELATIVE STRENGTH (SECTOR & INDEX) vs. JSE All Share:  Bullish. NTC is outperforming the broader index, showing relative strength as the market rotates into defensive growth/value plays. vs. Healthcare Sector:  Strong. Netcare is leading or performing in-line with the sector recovery, driven by specific internal efficiency narratives. SCENARIO ANALYSIS (RISK MANAGEMENT) Bull Case (Primary):  The trend is undeniably up across all timeframes. A daily close above 1,600c would clear the last local hurdles, opening a vacuum move toward 1,700c – 1,750c. Bear Case (Alternative):  The overbought weekly signals warn of a potential pullback. If price slips back below 1,550c, we could see a rotation down to retest the 1,480c breakout level. A close below 1,480c neutralizes the immediate bullish bias. MOMENTUM PROFILE:   Daily Chart (Standard) Outlook:  Bullish Continuation Ultra Short Term:  Neutral — The 2-period volatility gauge is centering within the neutral band (61.17), allowing price to catch up to the moving averages without breaking the trend. Short Term:  Strong — The 3-period indicator is maintaining its position in the “Strong” tier (61.38), confirming active buyer interest on dips. Mid Term:  Strong — The 7-period trend is firmly established in the upper bullish zones (64.10). Base Term:  Strong — The 14-period baseline (62.04) is rising, supporting the trend. Weekly Chart (Slower / Macro) Outlook:  High Momentum / Overbought Tactical Momentum:  High Bullish — The indicator is elevated in the “High Bullish” tier (91.16), approaching the overbought ceiling. This implies aggressive momentum but limited immediate runway. Fast Weekly:  High Bullish — Momentum is exceptionally strong (84.94), sitting in the “High Bullish” zone. Structural Trend:  High Bullish — The 7-period structure (76.05) has accelerated into the high momentum bands. Primary Trend:  Strong — The long-term baseline (67.87) has crossed into the “Strong” tier, confirming the macro recovery is real. Monthly Chart (Long Term / Secular) Outlook:  Secular Recovery Quarterly Pulse:  Overbought — The ultra-fast monthly pulse (97.63) is maxed out in the “Overbought” tier, reflecting the sharpness of the recent quarter's rally. Fast Monthly:  Overbought — Approaching the upper limits (90.02), signaling extreme strength. Secular Cycle:  Strong — The 7-period cycle (70.51) is rising through the “Strong” tier. Core Baseline:  Strong — The 14-period baseline (59.69) is recovering from the lows and pushing into positive territory. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za For the expanded view, beyond the Top 10, become a client of Unum Capital today. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za US Sector Rotation The US market closes 2025 with a distinct shift in character. The "Mag 7" dominance represented by Technology is showing signs of fatigue, entering a consolidation phase. Meanwhile, capital is aggressively rotating into Communications and Healthcare. Conversely, the "Defensive" sectors are under severe pressure, showing signs of capitulation. Here is the breakdown of the current US sector rotation dynamics. 1. IMPROVING / LEADING (The New Leaders) Neutral Long-Term Trend + Strong Short/Medium Momentum These sectors are currently generating the most alpha. They are actively climbing the curve and attracting the bulk of tactical flows. Communications (XLC) vs SPY Status:  Neutral (Long) / Strong (Medium) / Strong (Short). Analysis:  This is the strongest sector on the board right now. With both Medium and Short-term momentum reading "Strong," XLC is aggressively moving from the "Improving" quadrant potentially into "Leading." It appears to be taking the leadership baton from Technology. Healthcare (XLV) vs SPY Status:  Neutral (Long) / Strong (Medium) / Neutral (Short). Analysis:  Healthcare is waking up. The "Strong" medium-term signal suggests institutional accumulation is underway, rotating capital out of other areas into this defensive growth pocket. 2. WEAKENING (Consolidation) Strong Long-Term Trend + Neutral Momentum Technology (XLK) vs SPY Status:  Strong (Long) / Neutral (Medium) / Neutral (Short). Analysis:  The long-term bull trend remains "Strong"—the structural thesis is intact. However, the drop to "Neutral" on shorter timeframes confirms a pause. Tech is no longer driving the daily gains; it is digesting its massive run. This is a classic "Weakening" quadrant setup: time correction rather than price destruction. 3. LAGGING (The Drags) Weak/Bearish Trend + Weak/Neutral Momentum The "Defensive" cohorts are being liquidated. Consumer Staples (XLP) & Real Estate (XLRE) Status:  High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold. Analysis:  These are toxic charts. The "High Bearish" tag combined with "Weak" medium-term momentum indicates aggressive distribution. They are approaching "Oversold," which might spark a bounce, but the trend is broken. Utilities (XLU) Status:  Weak across Long and Medium terms. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Status:  Neutral (Long) but Weak (Short). Analysis:  This is concerning. Unlike Tech which is resting, Discretionary is actively losing short-term momentum, sliding towards the Lagging quadrant. 4. THE CENTER (Stabilizing / Neutral) Weak/Neutral Trend + Neutral Momentum Financials (XLF):  Neutral across all timeframes. Energy (XLE), Materials (XLB), Industrials (XLI):  Weak Long-term trends, but Neutral short-term. They have stopped falling but haven't started rising. They are essentially "dead money" for now. MOMENTUM FLASH CARDS Here are the tear sheets for the key US sectors based on the data. QUADRANT 1: THE ACTIVE BULLS (Improving/Leading) MOMENTUM FLASH CARD: COMMUNICATIONS (XLC) RRG STATUS:  IMPROVING $\rightarrow$ LEADING PROFILE:  Accelerating Momentum. QUARTERLY PULSE (Long Term):  NEUTRAL. Analysis:  The long-term trend has repaired enough to leave "Weak" territory. It is ready to challenge for leadership. TACTICAL MOMENTUM (Short/Med Term):  STRONG / AGGRESSIVE BUY. Analysis:  This is the only sector with "Strong" readings on both Medium and Short timeframes. It is the current "Alpha Engine." THE PLAYBOOK: Action:   OVERWEIGHT. Strategy:  Momentum Capture. This is where the hot money is flowing. Buy dips aggressively. MOMENTUM FLASH CARD: HEALTHCARE (XLV) RRG STATUS:  IMPROVING PROFILE:  Institutional Accumulation. QUARTERLY PULSE (Long Term):  NEUTRAL. Analysis:  Stable. Not a drag, but not yet a structural leader. TACTICAL MOMENTUM (Short/Med Term):  BULLISH. Analysis:  The "Strong" Medium-term reading suggests a steady bid under the market. THE PLAYBOOK: Action:   ACCUMULATE. Strategy:  Rotation Trade. As Tech rests, money is parking here. QUADRANT 2: THE RESTING GIANT (Weakening) MOMENTUM FLASH CARD: TECHNOLOGY (XLK) RRG STATUS:  WEAKENING PROFILE:  Strong Trend + Fading Momentum. QUARTERLY PULSE (Long Term):  STRONG BULLISH. Analysis:  The only sector with a "Strong" long-term reading. The secular bull market is intact. TACTICAL MOMENTUM (Short/Med Term):  NEUTRAL / PAUSE. Analysis:  Momentum has neutralized. The sector is likely range-bound or consolidating. THE PLAYBOOK: Action:   HOLD. Strategy:  Volatility Compression. Do not chase highs. Wait for momentum to reset before adding new exposure. QUADRANT 3: THE DEFENSIVE DRAG (Lagging) MOMENTUM FLASH CARD: STAPLES (XLP) & REAL ESTATE (XLRE) RRG STATUS:  DEEP LAGGING PROFILE:  Bearish Trend + Oversold. QUARTERLY PULSE (Long Term):  HIGH BEARISH / OVERSOLD. Analysis:  Heavy liquidation. The trends are broken. TACTICAL MOMENTUM (Short/Med Term):  WEAK. Analysis:  No sign of buyers stepping in yet. THE PLAYBOOK: Action:   AVOID. Strategy:  "Oversold" implies a potential snap-back rally is possible, but it is high risk. The primary trend is down. MOMENTUM FLASH CARD: CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY (XLY) RRG STATUS:  SLIDING (Neutral / Lagging) PROFILE:  Losing Momentum. QUARTERLY PULSE (Long Term):  NEUTRAL. TACTICAL MOMENTUM (Short/Med Term):  WEAK. Analysis:  This is a warning sign for the broader economy. While Tech rests, the consumer is weakening. THE PLAYBOOK: Action:   REDUCE / WATCH. Strategy:  Caution. If the Long-term trend drops to "Weak," capitulate active positions. QUADRANT 4: THE STABILIZERS (Center) MOMENTUM FLASH CARD: FINANCIALS, ENERGY & INDUSTRIALS RRG STATUS:  CENTER / BENCHMARK HUGGERS PROFILE:  Flat. QUARTERLY PULSE (Long Term):  NEUTRAL to WEAK. TACTICAL MOMENTUM (Short/Med Term):  NEUTRAL. Analysis:  "Neutral" across the board (especially Financials). These sectors are providing no direction. THE PLAYBOOK: Action:   MARKET WEIGHT. Strategy:  Ignore for now. Capital is better deployed in Communications (Long) or Cash (avoiding Real Estate). MACROECONOMIC SIGNAL INTERPRETATION Based on the data provided, specifically the rotation out of Defensive/Bond-Proxies (Utilities, Real Estate, Staples) and into "Value" Growth (Communications) and Defensive Growth (Healthcare), here is the signal interpretation. This specific constellation of sector movements points toward a "No Landing" / "Higher-for-Longer" macroeconomic environment. 1. The "Higher-for-Longer" Interest Rate Signal The most glaring signal in this report is the capitulation of the Real Estate (XLRE), Utilities (XLU), and Consumer Staples (XLP) sectors. The Signal:  These three sectors are "Bond Proxies"—they are heavily owned for their dividends. When they crash (High Bearish/Oversold), it is a classic signal that Bond Yields are rising (or expected to stay high). Macro Takeaway:  The market is pricing out aggressive interest rate cuts. Investors are terrified of duration risk. If a recession were imminent, investors would be buying Staples and Utilities for safety. The fact that they are dumping them suggests they do not fear a recession; they fear the Federal Reserve keeping rates high to fight sticky inflation. 2. The "Defensive Growth" Pivot The rotation into Healthcare (XLV) is highly significant. The Signal:  Healthcare is a unique hybrid. It offers the safety of essential demand (people get sick in any economy) but often has better earnings growth than Utilities. Macro Takeaway:  This signals "Late Cycle" caution. Investors aren't panicking (or they'd buy gold/staples), but they are nervous about pure cyclical exposure. They want to stay invested in equities but prefer companies with reliable earnings that aren't dependent on a booming economy. It’s a move toward "Quality" over "Risk." 3. The Tech-to-Comms Handoff The shift from Technology (XLK) (Weakening) to Communications (XLC) (Leading) suggests a search for Valuation. The Signal:  Tech led the rally, got expensive, and is now resting. Communications (home to Alphabet, Meta, Netflix, Disney) often trades at a lower multiple than pure Tech/Semiconductors. Macro Takeaway:  The "Risk-On" trade isn't dead; it's just becoming price-sensitive. This is healthy market behavior (rotation), implying that liquidity is still present but is hunting for better bargains within the Growth theme. 4. The Consumer Warning Light The weakness in Consumer Discretionary (XLY) combined with the collapse in Consumer Staples (XLP) is a rare and bearish divergence for the US consumer. The Signal:  Usually, if Discretionary falls, Staples rise (flight to necessities). When both are weak relative to the SPY, it signals a broad distaste for the consumer theme. Macro Takeaway:  The market is betting that the US consumer is "tapped out." Inflation (hurting margins) and high credit costs (hurting spending power) may finally be biting. This is the biggest risk to the "Soft Landing" narrative. Summary of the Macro Narrative The report signals: "The economy is too strong to allow rate cuts (bearish for Real Estate/Utilities), but the consumer is starting to crack (bearish for Retail). Therefore, we will hide in high-quality Defensive Growth (Healthcare) and cheaper Tech proxies (Communications) until the picture clears." Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Technical Take: Shoprite Holdings (SHP) Date:  Thursday, January 1, 2026 Regime:  Weak / Consolidating Primary Outlook:  Sell on rally Momentum Profile (Daily) Ultra Short Term:  Neutral Short Term:  Neutral Mid Term:  Neutral Base Term:  Neutral Core Thesis Shoprite remains in a state of suspended animation with a unanimous "Neutral" profile. Currently, the lower timeframes are not  showing the aggressive early signals seen in peers like Pick n Pay or Spar. This lack of "ignition" on the Ultra Short or Short Term horizons reinforces the view that the stock is merely drifting rather than accumulating. For a bullish case to develop, we would need to see the Ultra Short Term indicators fire into "Strong" or "High Bullish" territory first—acting as the early warning of a regime change. Until that distinct shift in character occurs on the lower timeframes, the probability remains weighted towards a continuation of the weak/consolidating structure. Actionable Setup The Signal to Watch:  Watch the Ultra Short Term  momentum closely. It needs to break out of "Neutral" to signal that an early move is underway. The Trade:  Without that lower-timeframe spark, the stock remains a "Sell on Rally" candidate. Buying here is premature as there is no leading energy to suggest a breakout is imminent. Technical Take: Woolworths Holdings (WHL) Date:  Thursday, January 1, 2026 Regime:  Bullish Reversal / Tactical Overbought Primary Outlook:  At or approaching sell/reduce Momentum Profile (Daily) Ultra Short Term:  High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought Short Term:  High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought Mid Term:  Strong Base Term:  Neutral Core Thesis Woolworths is exhibiting a powerful impulse. The "High Bullish Momentum" on the Ultra Short and Short Term frames should be viewed constructively here: rather than just signaling "overbought" exhaustion, these elevated readings confirm breakout velocity . This sustained intensity on lower timeframes is often the hallmark of a genuine trend reversal, where buyers remain aggressive even at higher prices. While the "Approaching Overbought" status warrants tactical caution for immediate entries, it serves as an early confirmation that the structural trend is shifting. The fast moving averages are successfully "dragging" the Mid Term sentiment into "Strong" territory, validating the reversal hypothesis. Actionable Setup The Probability:  The strength in the lower timeframes suggests that any pullback will be shallow and bought aggressively (a "Buy on Dip" environment is forming). Tactical View:  While we are "At or approaching sell/reduce" due to immediate extension, this is likely a pause in a new uptrend. Watch for the lower timeframes to cool from "High Bullish" to "Strong" without price collapsing—that would be the confirmation of a sustainable early move. Technical Take: Spar Group (SPP) Date:  Thursday, January 1, 2026 Regime:  Bearish / Attempting Rebound Primary Outlook:  Sell on rally Momentum Profile (Daily) Ultra Short Term:  High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought Short Term:  Strong Mid Term:  Neutral Base Term:  Neutral Core Thesis Spar presents a classic "Early Move" divergence. The aggressive spike in Ultra Short Term momentum ("High Bullish") contrasts with the lethargic "Neutral" Mid/Base terms. While this can indicate exhaustion, it is also the distinct signature of a V-shaped recovery impulse . The fact that the Short Term has already shifted to "Strong" suggests this is more than just noise; it is a concerted effort by buyers to reverse the trend. If this lower-timeframe strength can be sustained, it will act as the leading indicator that eventually pulls the Mid Term and Base Term indicators higher. We are likely witnessing the "Ignition Phase" of a potential bottom. Actionable Setup The Nuance:  Do not blindly fade this rally. The intensity of the lower timeframes suggests the "Sell on Rally" outlook might be challenged soon. The Trigger:  If price consolidates here but the Ultra Short Term momentum stays "Strong" (refusing to drop back to "Weak"), it confirms this is a structural change and not a trap. Technical Take: Pick n Pay (PIK) Date:  Thursday, January 1, 2026 Regime:  Bearish / Early Bottoming Signs Primary Outlook:  Sell on rally Momentum Profile (Daily) Ultra Short Term:  High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought Short Term:  High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought Mid Term:  Neutral Base Term:  Neutral Core Thesis Pick n Pay is showing the most aggressive "Early Move" signal of the group. The synchronized surge to "High Bullish Momentum" on both Ultra Short and Short Term horizons represents a violent wake-up call for a stock that has been trending down. This behavior is typical of a Short Squeeze  or an Accumulation Spike , where smart money enters aggressively. While the Mid Term is still "Neutral," these lower timeframe readings are leading indicators that the character of the market has changed. This is likely the necessary "escape velocity" required to break the bearish inertia. Rather than pure exhaustion, this looks like the start of a momentum shift. Actionable Setup The Strategy:  Treat this as a potential "Change of Character." The probability of a successful bottom has increased significantly due to the sheer force of the lower timeframe move. The Risk:  The gap between "High Bullish" (Short Term) and "Neutral" (Mid Term) is wide. Watch for a "Bull Flag" consolidation: if PIK can digest this move sideways while keeping momentum elevated, the bottom is in. Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range  high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range  may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za End of day: 31 December 2025 Executive Summary The current market cycle exhibits a distinct narrowness in leadership, heavily skewed towards the Resource complex. Platinum Miners stand alone as the undisputed market leaders, showing strength across all timeframes. Conversely, a significant portion of the "SA Inc" stocks (Financials, Retailers, Hospitals) are currently languishing in the Lagging quadrant, dragging on the broader index. The most notable rotational opportunity appears to be in General Miners and Telecoms, which are showing early signs of shifting momentum. 1. The Leading Quadrant (Bullish) High Relative Strength / High Momentum Sectors in this quadrant are dominating the market. They are outperforming the benchmark on a trend basis and accelerating that performance in the short term. Platinum Miners vs. Top 40 Technical Status: Strong / Strong / Strong. Analysis: This sector is the current "Alpha Engine" of the JSE. It is not merely enjoying a short-term pop; the alignment of strength across long, medium, and short timeframes suggests a robust, sustained uptrend. Investors are aggressively allocating capital here, and pullbacks are likely being bought quickly. Outlook: Continue to favor long exposure, trailing stops to protect gains. 2. The Weakening Quadrant (Correction/Consolidation) High Relative Strength / Low Momentum Sectors here remain in a long-term uptrend but are experiencing a temporary loss of momentum. This is often a zone of profit-taking or consolidation. Gold Miners vs. Top 40 Technical Status: High Bullish Momentum (Long-term) vs. Weak (Short-term). Analysis: While the structural bull market for Gold Miners remains intact, the sector is currently "taking a breather." The flip to weak short-term momentum suggests price action has run too far, too fast, and is now reverting to the mean. Outlook: Watch for stabilization. If the long-term trend holds, this "Weakening" phase may present a "dip-buying" opportunity once short-term momentum neutralizes or turns upward again. 3. The Improving Quadrant (Turnaround Candidates) Low Relative Strength / High Momentum These sectors have been downtrodden but are seeing a sharp influx of short-term buying pressure. This is the "Rotation Zone" where value investors and aggressive traders look for trend reversals. General Miners vs. Top 40 Technical Status: Weak (Long-term) vs. Strong (Short-term). Analysis: A classic turnaround setup. While the historical trend is negative, recent price action indicates a bottoming process. The surge in short-term momentum suggests the "smart money" may be rotating into this beaten-down sector expecting a reversal. Telecoms vs. Top 40 Technical Status: Neutral (Long-term) vs. Strong (Short-term). Analysis: Telecoms are actively climbing the curve. Moving from a Neutral long-term stance to Strong short-term momentum implies they are breaking out of a holding pattern and attempting to enter the Leading quadrant. 4. The Lagging Quadrant (Bearish) Low Relative Strength / Low Momentum Sectors in this quadrant are underperforming the market on both trend and momentum. They are the primary source of drag on the index. Technology (High Bearish Trend) Consumer Discretionary (High Bearish Trend) Chemicals (High Bearish Trend) Paper & Pulp (Oversold condition) Luxury Goods Hospitals Coal Miners Insurers Cohort Analysis: This is the most crowded quadrant, containing a diverse mix of sectors. Deep Lag: Technology, Chemicals, and Discretionary are showing "High Bearish" signals, indicating active distribution (selling). Stabilization vs. Lag: Sectors like Hospitals, Insurers, and Coal display "Neutral" readings on shorter timeframes. This distinction is vital: they are not necessarily crashing, but they lack the catalytic energy to move right on the graph. They are "dead money" until momentum improves. 5. The Center (Benchmark Huggers) Neutral Trends / Neutral Momentum These sectors are performing in lockstep with the Top 40. They provide neither alpha (excess returns) nor significant drag. Banks vs. Top 40 Consumer Staples vs. Top 40 Analysis: These sectors represent the average market temperature. The fact that Banks are neutral while Insurers are lagging suggests a lack of appetite for financial risk, but not an outright exodus from the banking system. Strategic Conclusion The Flow of Funds: Money is clearly rotating within  the Resources complex. While Gold miners rest (Weakening), capital is flowing aggressively into Platinum (Leading) and bottom-fishing in General Miners (Improving). The Risk: The market breadth is concerning. With the vast majority of Industrial and Financial sectors (Retail, Tech, Insurers, Hospitals) stuck in the Lagging quadrant, the JSE is currently flying on one engine (Resources). If the Resources trade falters, the broader index lacks support from "SA Inc" sectors to catch the fall. Actionable Watchlist: Long: Platinum Miners (Trend Following). Watch: General Miners (Reversal setup). Avoid/Short: Technology and Consumer Discretionary (until momentum shifts). Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The share has completed a +36% bullish reversal vs the original note (see further below). Now: buy pullbacks (see actionable areas) on the chart. Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. Previous Post (01 December): South 32: Running +24%. Short Term Traders Consider Taking Profits + Updated Multi-Time Frame View Highlights: South32 Ltd (Multi-Time Frame View) Fractal Momentum Surge:  A powerful "Momentum Trinity" has formed. The Ultra Short Term (2-period) indicators on the Daily  (95.20), Weekly  (88.74), and Monthly  (91.87) charts are all simultaneously trading in the "High Bullish Momentum"  or "Overbought"  tiers. This indicates a concerted wave of buying pressure across every timeframe, from day traders to macro funds. Cyclical Turnaround:  Unlike stocks making new all-time highs, South32 is in the early stages of a massive cyclical recovery. The Monthly  chart shows the Base Term trend (48.40) curling upwards from deep lows. This "sleeping giant" signal suggests that while the short-term move is aggressive, the long-term rally has significant runway remaining before it hits structural exhaustion. Daily Overheat Warning:  The Daily  chart is the immediate concern. With the 2-Day momentum reading >95, the stock is statistically overextended in the very short term. Stocks rarely maintain this velocity without a "cooling off" lateral consolidation or a sharp intraday flush to reset the gauge. The Weekly "Engine Room":  The Weekly  chart provides the most compelling bullish argument. All four trend timeframes are sloping aggressively upwards, with the Base Term trend (14-week) successfully reclaiming the "Neutral/Strong"  border (57.62). This confirms that the medium-term trend has shifted from bearish to bullish. Breakout at Resistance:  The price action is currently challenging the major multi-year pivot zone around 3,700c - 3,750c . A definitive monthly close above this level would technically confirm a massive "double bottom" or accumulation reversal pattern, unlocking targets above 4,500c. Best Action Timeline: 3 to 5 days (1 week):   Wait / Trim.  The Daily RSI >95 suggests chasing here is dangerous. Expect choppy price action or a minor pullback to 3,550c - 3,600c . 6 to 10 days (2 weeks):   Accumulate.  Once the daily "overbought" reading cools (ideally resetting to ~50), look to enter long positions, using the Weekly  trend strength as your bias. 11 to 15 days (3 weeks):   Ride the Trend.  If 3,600c holds as support, the aligned Weekly momentum should drive the next impulsive leg higher towards 4,000c . 16 to 20 days (4 weeks):   Monitor Monthly Close.  A monthly close above 3,725c  confirms the secular turnaround is active. Bullish Scenario:   Blue Sky Breakout:  The sheer force of the "Fractal Surge" blows through the 3,750c  resistance without pausing. Short sellers are forced to cover, driving the price rapidly toward the psychological 4,000c  handle. Base Scenario:   Bull Flag Consolidation:  The stock pauses at resistance to digest the recent +15% move. Price consolidates between 3,550c and 3,750c , allowing the overheated Daily momentum to reset while the Weekly trend catches up. Bearish Scenario:   Resistance Rejection:  The stock fails to clear the 3,750c  ceiling. The overbought Daily signal triggers a sharp reversal, sending the price back down to retest the breakout base at 3,400c . Core Thesis South32 is an "early-stage recovery" play. While short-term indicators (Daily) are flashing "Overbought" warnings similar to other resource stocks, the long-term (Monthly) structure is far less extended, offering better long-term risk/reward. The thesis is bullish, but tactical patience is required to avoid buying the exact short-term top of this daily cycle. Wait for the dip, then trust the weekly trend. Comprehensive Summary The dashboard shows a market transitioning from "bottoming" to "trending." The synchronization of the fast-twitch indicators across all three timeframes is a rare signal of total market consensus. However, the Monthly Base Trend is still only "Neutral," meaning the stock still has to prove it can hold these gains to convince long-term asset managers. The setup favors buying dips rather than chasing breakouts. Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis (Weekly Focus) Note: This block focuses on the Weekly timeframe as the "bridge" between the Daily noise and Monthly macro. Ultra Short Term Indication: HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM  Slope: Sharply Upwards Short Term Indication: HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM  Slope: Sharply Upwards Mid Term Indication: STRONG  Slope: Sharply Upwards Base Term Indication: NEUTRAL / STRONG  Slope: Sharply Upwards Breakouts, Breakdowns, and Reversals (Combined Range Focus) Bullish Confirmation:  A weekly close above 3,750c  confirms the major trend reversal. Bearish Invalidation:  A close back below 3,400c  would negate the current bullish impulse and suggest the stock is still stuck in its long-term range. Key Actionable Zones Immediate Resistance:   3,750c  (Major Structural Pivot). Target 1:   4,000c  (Psychological). Pivot Support:   3,550c  (Intraday Breakout Level). Critical Structural Support:   3,400c  (Weekly Higher Low). Previous Post (08 October): South 32: Running +14%. Short Term Traders Consider Taking (Partial) Profits Previous Post (21 September): 🎥Watch (Video): A Bit of Mean Reversion Due...? To access this name, you need to be an ACTIVE  trading client of Unum Capital, having traded via the desk in the last 7 trading days. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital