Search this site

Research Notes December 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rdec2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Highlights: South African 10-Year Bond Yield (Weekly Chart Time Frame) Mechanical Reversal Confirmed:  The momentum profile is signaling a decisive reversal in yield trends . The Ultra Short Term and Short Term indicators are aggressively pivoting upwards from "Neutral"  and "Weak"  territory, respectively. This confirms that the bearish pressure on yields (falling yields) has been violently arrested. Trend Stabilization:  The structural indicators, Mid Term and Base Term, which were reflecting "Weak"  and "High Bearish Momentum"  previously, are now also pivoting upwards. This unanimous upward slope across all four tiers confirms the breakdown of the bearish momentum. Coiled Spring Release:  The current action represents the release of the "coiled spring" dynamic to the upside. The market is reversing sharply from the extreme lows, indicating a high-velocity mean-reversion move toward higher yields. Structural Challenge:  While the immediate trend is reversing aggressively, the structural Mid and Base Term indicators are still in the "Weak"  or "High Bearish Momentum"  tiers. The challenge is now for this strong bounce to drag the structure into the "Neutral"  or "Strong"  tiers to confirm a sustained uptrend in yields. Best Action Timeline/Price Action Probability 1 to 10 days:   75% Probability of Aggressive Bounce.  The unified sharp upward slope across all indicators guarantees an immediate, aggressive rally in yields toward the 9.00%  resistance level. 2 to 4 weeks:   65% Probability of Structural Test.  The bounce will test the structural integrity of the previous trend. Expect yields to challenge the 9.00%  level, which the structural indicators must clear to move into the "Neutral"  zone. 5 to 8 weeks:   60% Probability of Trend Reversal Confirmation.  If the Base Term momentum successfully pivots into the "Neutral"  zone, the long-term trend will shift to bullish (higher yields), targeting the 9.50%  resistance. 🟢 Bullish Scenario:   Trend Reversal:  The fast momentum successfully clears the 9.00%  resistance, pulling the structural Mid and Base Term indicators into the "Neutral"  and "Strong"  tiers. Yields then target 9.50%  and above. ⚪ Base Scenario:   Corrective Bounce:  Yields reach 9.00%  but stall. The structural indicators remain pinned in the "Weak"  tier, and price consolidates sideways, failing to confirm the long-term reversal. 🔴 Bearish Scenario:   Reversal Failure:  The reversal attempt fails prematurely, and the fast indicators hook back down. Yields drop back toward 8.00% , and the structural downtrend resumes. Momentum Profile (Weekly Focus) The momentum structure is pivoting aggressively, signaling a strong reversal in yields: Ultra Short Term:  Indication: NEUTRAL  | Slope:  Sharply Upwards Short Term:  Indication: WEAK  | Slope:  Sharply Upwards Mid Term:  Indication: HIGH BEARISH MOMENTUM / APPROACHING OVERSOLD  | Slope:  Upwards Base Term:  Indication: WEAK  | Slope:  Upwards Core Thesis The South African 10-Year Bond Yield is undergoing a sharp, mechanical reversal from extreme lows. The unanimous upward slope confirms the immediate trend is higher (bearish for bonds). The strategy is to participate in the expected aggressive bounce  and watch for structural confirmation as yields challenge the 9.00%  resistance. The structural trend reversal is highly probable but not yet fully confirmed by the Base Term. Key Actionable Zones Immediate Resistance:   9.00%  (Bounce Target / Structural Rejection Zone). Critical Structural Support:   8.00%  (Psychological Round Number / Inflection Point). Major Resistance:   9.50%  (Extension Target). Trend Floor:   7.50%  (Deep Support). Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes December 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rdec2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Highlights Maximum Velocity Climax:  Thungela is currently displaying a massive, unsustainable vertical move. The Ultra Short Term and Short Term momentum indicators are both pinned at or near their maximum reading in the "Extreme Overbought"  tier. This signals a climax buying event that demands an immediate, sharp pause or reversal. Full Spectrum Overheating:  All four daily momentum tiers—from Ultra Short to Base Term—are trading in the "Strong"  to "Overbought"  range. This confirms the reversal off the lows is a unified buying frenzy, but the entire momentum structure is highly extended. Structural Validation:  Crucially, the Base Term indicator has successfully been dragged into the "High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought"  tier. This validates the recent rally as a true structural change and not just a dead-cat bounce, giving the trend future durability after the inevitable correction. Imminent Pullback:  The extreme Overbought readings are mathematically unsustainable. A sharp mean-reversion pullback is a high-probability event in the immediate future to relieve the immense pressure. Best Action Timeline/Price Action Probability 1 to 10 days:   80% Probability of Sharp Correction.  The Extreme Overbought readings guarantee a pullback. Expect price to quickly drop toward the 9,000c - 9,200c  support zone to relieve the pressure before any continuation can occur. 2 to 4 weeks:   65% Probability of Consolidation Base.  The correction will likely stabilize, forming a bullish consolidation flag between 8,800c and 9,500c , allowing the momentum structure to reset from "Overbought" to "Strong." 5 to 8 weeks:   60% Probability of Trend Resumption.  If the correction is orderly, the Base Term momentum (High Bullish) should reassert itself, leading to a break of the consolidation and extension toward 10,500c . 🟢 Bullish Scenario:   Sustainable Continuation:  The stock consolidates immediately and orderly (a rare event). Price holds the 9,500c  level, and the subsequent move clears 10,000c , confirming the power of the structural shift. ⚪ Base Scenario:   Healthy Retest:  Price executes the necessary correction, testing the 9,000c  support. It then enters a tight, high-level consolidation zone, preserving the structural uptrend without retesting the deep lows. 🔴 Bearish Scenario:   Climax Reversal:  The Extreme Overbought signal marks a blow-off top. Price suffers a sharp rejection, dragging the Base Term momentum back toward the "Neutral"  zone, signaling a failure to sustain the uptrend. Momentum Profile (Daily Focus) The momentum structure is at critical climax levels, signaling an unsustainable short-term move: Ultra Short Term:  Indication: EXTREME OVERBOUGHT  | Slope:  Flat/Upwards Short Term:  Indication: OVERBOUGHT  | Slope:  Flat/Upwards Mid Term:  Indication: OVERBOUGHT  | Slope:  Sharply Upwards Base Term:  Indication: HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM / APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT  | Slope:  Sharply Upwards Core Thesis Thungela is exhibiting a powerful structural reversal, confirmed by the Base Term moving into the "High Bullish" tier. However, the short-term entry risk is maximal due to the Extreme Overbought condition. The strategy is to wait patiently  for the guaranteed correction, viewing any pullback towards the 9,000c  level as a high-value buying opportunity. Key Actionable Zones Immediate Resistance:   9,800c - 10,000c  (Psychological / Climax Peak). Pivot Support:   9,000c  (Immediate Retracement Target). Critical Structural Support:   8,500c  (Breakout Base). Trend Floor:   7,800c  (Major Swing Low). Previous Post: Trade Idea: Buy Between R79 & R80. Sell Above R90 Our Thungela Resources buy re-entry trade idea has yielded a great result. The share tested the buy re-entry range and rallied +15% over 4 Days. Well done to clients who are taking advantage of the opportunities to trade. Previous Post (04 December): Short Term Traders: Take Profit on Thungela Resources. A +9% Rebound vs Buy Re-Entry Strong rebound from lower boundary of buy re-entry range (7935c to 8652c). Previous Post (02 December, Intraday)🎥Video: Thungela Resources: Intraday Cash Flow Previous Post (02 December, Pre-Market): Thungela Resources: Trading Levels + Momentum Analysis Highlights: Vertical Momentum Spike:  The Daily chart is witnessing an aggressive liquidity inflow. The Ultra Short Term (2-Day) momentum indicator has surged deep into the "Overbought"  tier. This indicates extreme buyer urgency and typically signifies a "panic buy" or short-squeeze scenario where price velocity is unsustainable in the immediate term. Structural Trend Repair:  Crucially, the Base Term (14-Day) trend has crossed firmly into the "Strong"  tier. This is a significant technical development, confirming that this rally is not merely a "dead cat bounce" but a structural shift in daily market sentiment, supported by widening participation. Full Spectrum Alignment:  All four momentum timeframes—from the fast-twitch 2-Day to the structural 14-Day—are sloping sharply upwards  in unison. This synchronized thrust creates a powerful tailwind, suggesting that any short-term dips are likely to be aggressively bought by latecomers. Resistance Convergence:  The price is fast approaching a well-defined overhead supply zone between 8,500c and 8,800c . With the short-term momentum indicators effectively "pinned" at their ceilings, this resistance level is likely to trigger a pause or profit-taking event. Best Action Timeline: 3 to 5 days (1 week):   Fade/Trim.  With the fastest momentum indicator pinned in the "Overbought" zone, the statistical probability of a pullback is high. Do not chase. Look to trim tactical longs into strength. 6 to 10 days (2 weeks):   Wait for the Higher Low.  Allow the momentum to cool from "Overbought" to "Neutral." Watch for support to form around the breakout level of 8,000c . 11 to 15 days (3 weeks):   Re-Entry.  If the 14-Day Base Trend remains in the "Strong" tier, re-enter long positions for a breakout attempt above 8,800c . 16 to 20 days (4 weeks):   Trend Extension.  Target the 9,500c - 10,000c  zone as the intermediate trend matures. Bullish Scenario:   Momentum Overdrive:  The market ignores the overbought reading (a sign of immense strength). The stock blasts through the 8,800c  resistance on high volume, triggering a further squeeze toward 9,500c  without a meaningful pullback. Base Scenario:   Bull Flag Consolidation:  The stock stalls at resistance ( 8,500c - 8,600c ) and drifts sideways. Price holds above 8,000c , allowing the Ultra Short Term momentum to reset from its extremes down to a sustainable level. Bearish Scenario:   Rejection & Fade:   The overbought signal marks a local top. The price rejects hard at 8,500c  and falls back below 7,800c , invalidating the breakout and trapping recent buyers. Core Thesis Thungela has shifted from a stabilization phase to an impulsive recovery. The synchronization of all daily trend indicators points to a genuine change in character. However, the current velocity is too hot to chase. The thesis is bullish on the structure but defensive on immediate timing. The optimal strategy is to wait for the "froth" to come off the short-term indicators before positioning for the next leg higher. Comprehensive Summary The momentum profile is highly constructive but extended. The fact that the Base Term trend has joined the rally in the "Strong" tier gives this move credibility. However, when the Ultra Short Term indicator is pinned at the top of the range, the market is historically prone to a sharp, reflexive volatility event to clear out leverage. Patience is the key edge here. Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis (Daily Focus) Ultra Short Term Indication:   OVERBOUGHT  | Slope:  Sharply Upwards Short Term Indication:   HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM  | Slope:  Sharply Upwards Mid Term Indication:   HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM  | Slope:  Sharply Upwards Base Term Indication:   STRONG  | Slope:  Upwards Breakouts, Breakdowns, and Reversals (Recent Range Focus) Bullish Breakout:  A daily close above 8,800c  clears the last major hurdle before the 10,000c level. Bearish Failure:  A close back below 7,800c  would damage the new uptrend structure. Key Actionable Zones Immediate Resistance:   8,500c - 8,800c  (Previous Consolidation Highs). Pivot Support:   8,000c  (Psychological / Breakout Level). Critical Structural Support:   7,500c  (Trend Defense). Trend Floor:   7,200c  (Recent Lows). Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes December 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rdec2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (19 November): Bid Corp: Early Buy Trigger (Lower Time Frame); Lower Levels Expected Before Potential Rebound Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes December 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rdec2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Highlights: Mechanical Rebound Signal:  The Ultra Short Term (2-Period) momentum indicator has surged into the "Strong"  tier from extreme lows. This sharp, high reading (often seen as an oversold reaction in a strong downtrend) signals that the recent selling pressure is exhausted, and an imminent mean-reversion bounce  is highly probable. Critical Support Test:  Price is currently challenging the significant long-term 17.00  psychological and structural support level. The reaction here will determine the pair's trajectory for the rest of the year. Structural Neutrality:  Despite the recent sharp decline, the Mid Term and Base Term momentum indicators are perfectly flat and resting in the "Neutral"  zone. This confirms the underlying structural downtrend is currently paused and vulnerable to the short-term bounce. Coiled Tension:  The large divergence between the high reading of the Ultra Short Term indicator and the flat reading of the structural indicators suggests a volatile decision point. A bounce is likely, but the long-term bearish trend remains the dominant force. Best Action Timeline/Price Action Probability 1 to 10 days:   70% Probability of Technical Bounce.  The extreme short-term reading favors a reflexive rally toward the immediate resistance at 17.20 - 17.30 . 2 to 4 weeks:   65% Probability of Decision Point.  The bounce will test the resolve of the short-term bearish trend. If the structural indicators remain "Neutral,"  the bounce will likely fail near 17.30 , leading to a retest of 17.00 . 5 to 8 weeks:   60% Probability of Continuation of Downtrend.  Unless the structural indicators decisively enter the "Strong" tier, the dominant long-term bearish trend should resume, with price slicing through 17.00  and targeting the 16.50  level. 🟢 Bullish Scenario:   Trend Reversal:  The reflexive bounce turns into a structural reversal. Price clears 17.30 , and the structural Mid and Base Term indicators are dragged into the "Strong"  tier, confirming a new multi-month uptrend. ⚪ Base Scenario:   Corrective Bounce:  Price executes the expected bounce to 17.20 , but momentum quickly fades. The pair consolidates tightly around 17.00  - 17.20 , waiting for the structural trends to align. 🔴 Bearish Scenario:   Structural Breakdown:  The reflexive bounce fails, and price slices through the 17.00  psychological support. This signals a continuation of the multi-month downtrend and targets the 16.50  level. Momentum Profile (Daily Focus) The momentum structure shows short-term extreme mean-reversion pressure: Ultra Short Term:  Indication: STRONG  | Slope:  Upwards Short Term:  Indication: NEUTRAL  (Approaching Strong) | Slope:  Flat/Upwards Mid Term:  Indication: NEUTRAL  | Slope:  Flat Base Term:  Indication: NEUTRAL  | Slope:  Flat Core Thesis USDZAR is at a major inflection point. The technical picture dictates an imminent counter-trend bounce  from the 17.00  support level due to exhausted short-term selling. However, the structural trend remains bearish/neutral, meaning the primary strategy should be to fade the expected bounce  at higher resistance levels unless the structural indicators show clear commitment to a reversal. Key Actionable Zones Immediate Resistance:   17.20 - 17.30  (Bounce Target / Trend Reversal Pivot). Critical Structural Support:   17.00  (Psychological Round Number / Inflection Point). Major Support:   16.50  (Extension Target). Trend Floor:   16.00  (Deep Support). Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes December 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rdec2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (Monday, 08 December) Absa Group: Long Term Target of R220 Exceeded In our previous note (see below), we re-iterated our long term target of R220. This level has been exceeded, with a high R225 today. Previous Post (23 January): How To Trade Absa Group (ABG): Key Takeaways : 1. Fundamentals Remain Appealing 2. Currently Unwinding From An Overbought Range 3. The next-best probability re-accumulation range is between 17930c and 18150c. This range is subject to change as the price action and news flow develops. In recent months, we have expressed our views around buy/long side opportunities in ABSA, with these short to medium term structures coming to fruition as the group reported results that were above analyst consensus expectations. The surge to above R195 placed the share in short term overbought territory, with the price action model confirming that the reward-to-risk for the short term traders had become unappealing. Below, the time-stamped model is shown: What has transpired since? As noted, the share traded into the 19600c/19900c range and has since experienced a period of distribution (selling) to below 18700c. Note the short term deteriorating candle structure. Where is the next best level to accumulate? Both the 50-day and 75-EMA continue to trend higher, with the price trading above these areas. The share price is also trading above it's rising 21-week EMA. There is an unfilled gap at 18203c, which is broadly in line with both the 75-day and 21week EMA. These are approximate areas meaning that the price can overshoot to the downside (or not reach it at all). For now, my next-best probability re-accumulation range is between 17930c and 18150c. This range is subject to change as the price action and news flow develops. Analyst's Price Action Model Previous Post: ABSA GROUP Voluntary Trading Upside Accelerates Fundamental Re-Rating Coming off a low base, materially stronger earnings growth is expected for 2024. The share has materially outperformed it's peer group this week but remains muted over the long term. This gives the share room to advance over the medium. To re-iterate, my long term target is R220. Please scroll down for the previous posts. Previous Post: ABSA GROUP: Absolute & Relative Re-Rating Thursday 05 December 2024 (Time: 06:21) In March, below R145, Clients were alerted to an opportunity to accumulate, driven by the model reading. Yesterday, the share was the strongest performer amongst the financials. On an absolute basis, the share is trading at multi-week highs. On a relative basis, the share is looking to breach it's downward trend vs the JSE Top 40 Index. To me, it looks the like the start of a re-rating and the potential start of relative outperformance. Remember, it's been very cheap with an appealing valuation. The ratio chart is shown below: Previous Post: Absa Group: Relative Value Monday 25 November 2024 (Time Published: 06h28) Fundamentally undervalued + has not participated in the re-rating of South African equities. Whilst it is trading off the Q2 lows, the share remains in a multi-year consolidation phase and off it's all-time highs. Long Term Target = R220. View as of Thursday 21 November at 09h59. Previous Post: TRADER'S TOOLBOX: Absa's 3 Major Turning Points - Tuesday, 20 August 2024 The major turning points in the share were late March, mid June and early in August. These 2 longs and 1 short triggers helped traders position for the subsequent moves to take advantage of cash-flow generating opportunities. BUY/LONG Discussed in detail, along with the Tactical Trading Guide on Monday, 25 March. The charts below are also adjusted to include dividends. Short/Sell (Reading/Chart 1) Warning that a buy/long was unappealing. Short/Sell (Reading/Chart 2) Alerting to a 1 to 2 day/week short/sell setup. Buy/Long - Monitor For Bullish Reversal Opportunity V-Shaped reversal followed by massive gap up during yesterday's session (earnings release). Clients of Unum Capital are often alerted to key technical developments which include readings from the Tactical Trading Guide. This acts as a guide which helps to identify both opportunities and risk. To become a client, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011384 2923 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes December 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rdec2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Highlights: JSE Top 40 Index Daily Short-Term Weakness:  The JSE Top 40 Index is displaying significant short-term selling pressure. The Ultra Short Term and Short Term momentum indicators are trading deep in the "Weak"  tier, confirming that the recent move lower has momentum behind it. Structural Defense:  Despite the weakness in the fast indicators, the structural trend remains resilient. The Mid Term and Base Term momentum indicators are holding perfectly in the "Neutral"  zone, successfully arresting the fall and defending the integrity of the longer-term uptrend. Compression Dynamic:  The clustering of all four momentum lines near the bottom of the Neutral zone indicates a state of high compression. The market has coiled tightly near the 103,000  pivot, suggesting a sharp directional move is imminent once the momentum breaks out of the "Weak" tier. Pivot Point:  The index is trading right on the 103,000  level. The structural defense holding here signals a potential "buy-the-dip" opportunity before the trend resumes. Best Action Timeline/Price Action Probability 1 to 10 days:   65% Probability of Pivot and Consolidation.  The odds favor the structural trend holding. Expect the Ultra Short Term momentum to pivot back toward the 50 centerline, leading to consolidation between 102,000 and 104,000 . 2 to 4 weeks:   60% Probability of Trend Resumption.  If the Mid/Base Term indicators hold "Neutral," the index should resume its climb, converting the current consolidation into a new base and targeting a breach of the recent high. 5 to 8 weeks:   60% Probability of Extension.  A confirmed move above 104,000 will drag the structural indicators into the "Strong"  tier, targeting 106,000  and potentially new cycle highs. 🟢 Bullish Scenario:   Structural Hold & Pivot:  The Ultra Short Term indicator pivots back up from the "Weak" zone, driving price to clear 104,000 . The structural trend then resumes, targeting the cycle high. ⚪ Base Scenario:   Extended Consolidation:  Price fails to break 104,000  but holds 102,000 . The index remains locked in a tight range, allowing the slow indicators to fully stabilize before the next directional attempt. 🔴 Bearish Scenario:   Structural Failure:  The Ultra Short Term momentum breaks down, dragging Mid/Base below the 40  threshold. Price slices through 102,000 , signaling a deeper correction toward 98,000 . Momentum Profile (Daily Focus) The momentum structure shows short-term weakness balanced by strong structural defense: Ultra Short Term:  Indication: WEAK  | Slope:  Flat/Downwards Short Term:  Indication: WEAK  | Slope:  Flat/Downwards Mid Term:  Indication: NEUTRAL  | Slope:  Flat Base Term:  Indication: NEUTRAL  | Slope:  Flat Core Thesis The JSE Top 40 is undergoing a controlled, healthy pullback. The integrity of the structural uptrend is being defended by the Mid and Base Term indicators holding "Neutral." The bias remains bullish, but confirmation of the pivot in the short-term momentum is required before aggressively adding new exposure. Key Actionable Zones Immediate Resistance:   104,000  (Consolidation Ceiling). Pivot Support:   102,000  (Immediate Floor). Critical Structural Support:   100,000  (Psychological Round Number). Trend Floor:   98,000  (Major Support Base). Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes December 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rdec2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Highlights: The Perfect Reset:  Northam Platinum has successfully cleared all short-term momentum "froth." The Ultra Short Term and Short Term indicators have fully normalized from their previous overbought extremes and are now resting in the "Weak"  to "Neutral"  tiers. This indicates the market has "reloaded" its energy for the next directional move. High Base Integrity:  The price is maintaining an elevated level, consolidating just below the recent cycle high of 32,000c . The ability of the stock to hold ground while momentum indicators normalize is a strong characteristic of a healthy, aggressive uptrend. Structural Strength:  The structural support remains intact. The Mid Term and Base Term indicators are clustered near the "Strong"  threshold, confirming that the primary uptrend is resilient and robust, waiting for the faster indicators to align for continuation. Coiled Spring Dynamic:  The convergence of all four indicators within the 40-60 range confirms a "Coiled Spring" setup. The lack of selling pressure during this reset suggests the highest probability resolution is a resumption of the trend. Best Action Timeline/Price Action Probability 1 to 10 days:   70% Probability of Breakout to ATH and Extension.  The successful momentum reset signals a high-probability thrust to clear the 32,000c  all-time high, targeting 33,500c . 2 to 4 weeks:   65% Probability of Sustained Trend and Base Formation.  The structural Base Term momentum will be dragged into the "Strong" tier, confirming that 32,000c  has converted to new support for the continuation phase. 5 to 8 weeks:   60% Probability of Structural Rally Continuation.  The newly established trend will mature, driving the price toward the major extension target of 34,500c . 🟢 Bullish Scenario:   Trend Resumption:  The Ultra Short Term indicator quickly hooks up and breaks above the 60  threshold. Price clears 31,000c  on volume, confirming the end of consolidation and targeting 32,000c  (ATH). ⚪ Base Scenario:   Extended Chop:  The market remains indecisive. Price stays range-bound between 30,000c and 31,000c  for the week, allowing the Mid and Base Term indicators to fully stabilize before the next attempt at a breakout. 🔴 Bearish Scenario:   Consolidation Failure:  Price fails to hold the 30,000c  psychological level. The Base Term indicator is dragged below the 42  threshold, signaling a breakdown toward 28,000c . Momentum Profile (Daily Focus) The momentum structure is in a Bullish Consolidation pattern, having successfully reset from previous highs: Ultra Short Term:  Indication: WEAK  (Pivoting) | Slope:  Flat/Upwards Short Term:  Indication: NEUTRAL  | Slope:  Flat/Upwards Mid Term:  Indication: NEUTRAL  (Approaching Strong) | Slope:  Flat Base Term:  Indication: NEUTRAL  (Approaching Strong) | Slope:  Flat Core Thesis Northam Platinum is in the final stages of a highly constructive consolidation. The successful reset of short-term momentum combined with strong structural support makes this a high-probability continuation setup. The bias is heavily bullish, focusing on an imminent breakout above 32,000c . Key Actionable Zones Immediate Resistance:   31,000c  (Consolidation Ceiling). Breakout Trigger:   32,000c  (All-Time High). Pivot Support:   30,000c  (Psychological Round Number). Critical Structural Support:   28,000c  (Trend Defense). Previous Post (Monday, 01 December): Take Profits on Northam Platinum (Running +14%) + Next Best Sell Range If the share immediately continues it's bullish trend/acceleration, then then it could be extended vs it's 8 and 21-day EMA. Look for an overshoot of the previous swing high combined with deteriorating candle structure in the ultra short term. If it pulls back immediately, then we would look to buy dips. Previous Post (Friday, 28 November): Take (Partial) Profits on Northam Platinum. Running +10% vs Buy Re-Entry (R275 to R302) Previous Post: 🎥Video: Profiting with Northam Platinum Previous Post (Wednesday, 19 November)🎥Watch: Trading Northam Platinum Previous Post (18 November)🎥Watch: Price Action Models Valterra Platinum & Northam Platinum Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes December 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rdec2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Highlights: Gold Fields Limited Perfect Equilibrium:  Gold Fields is exhibiting a classic "Coiled Spring"  technical signature. All four proprietary trend indicators—Ultra Short, Short, Mid, and Base Term—are clustered tightly around the 50 centerline  in the "Neutral"  zone. This indicates a rare state of complete market equilibrium after the recent volatility. Coiled Spring Dynamic:  The universal neutrality and flat slopes confirm that the energy is highly compressed. The longer this tight consolidation persists (since October), the more explosive the subsequent directional move will be once the market chooses a bias. Structural Integrity:  The Base Term (14-Period) trend successfully held the integrity of the "Neutral"  zone during the recent pullback. This confirms that the underlying medium-term uptrend structure is still intact and resilient, waiting for the faster indicators to confirm the resumption. Pivot Point:  The price is testing the 71,500c - 72,000c  resistance level, which marks the upper boundary of the current high base consolidation. The resolution of the momentum compression will dictate whether price breaks out or reverts to the base floor. Best Action Timeline/Price Action Probability 1-2 trading sessions:   65% Probability of Continuation of Consolidation.  The indicators are too compressed to support an immediate vertical move. Expect price to remain range-bound between 70,000c and 72,000c , waiting for the first momentum signal. 3-5 (1 Week) trading sessions:   70% Probability of Directional Breakout.  The compressed structure must resolve. Watch for the Ultra Short Term indicator to break decisively above 65  (Bullish trigger) or below 35  (Bearish trigger). 6-10 (2 Weeks) trading sessions:   65% Probability of Sustained Trend.  The Base Term momentum will likely be dragged by the faster indicator, confirming a sustained move either toward 75,000c  or 65,000c . 🟢 Bullish Scenario:   Breakout Confirmation:  The Ultra Short Term indicator breaks above the "Strong" threshold (65+), forcing price to clear 72,000c  on high volume, resolving the coiled spring to the upside and targeting 75,000c . ⚪ Base Scenario:   Extended Compression:  The stock holds tight between 70,000c and 72,000c . Momentum indicators remain locked in the Neutral zone for another week or more, delaying the major directional decision until the new year. 🔴 Bearish Scenario:   Compression Failure:  The Ultra Short Term indicator breaks decisively below the "Weak" threshold (35), signaling a failure of the recent high. Price slices through 70,000c , leading to a flush toward the 65,000c  structural support base. Momentum Profile (Daily Focus) The entire momentum structure is in a state of Equilibrium , with all four proprietary trend tiers indicating NEUTRAL  conditions: Ultra Short Term:  Indication: NEUTRAL . Slope: Flat. Short Term:  Indication: NEUTRAL . Slope: Flat. Mid Term:  Indication: NEUTRAL . Slope: Flat. Base Term:  Indication: NEUTRAL . Slope: Flat. Core Thesis Gold Fields is currently paused in a perfect state of equilibrium. The setup is highly volatile, offering no immediate directional bias but signaling a significant move is imminent once the Ultra Short Term momentum breaks its neutral floor. This is a setup requiring patience and strict adherence to breakout levels. Key Actionable Zones Immediate Resistance:   72,000c  (Consolidation Ceiling / Breakout Trigger). Critical Pivot:   70,000c  (Psychological Round Number / Consolidation Floor). Major Support:   65,000c  (Structural Support Base). Trend Floor:   60,000c  (Previous Swing Low). Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes December 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rdec2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Related Notes: https://www.unum.capital/post/har0412 Highlights Perfect Equilibrium:  Harmony Gold is currently displaying a rare technical signature: all four  momentum indicators (Ultra Short, Short, Mid, and Base Term) are perfectly synchronized within the "Neutral"  zone. This indicates a state of complete market balance between buyers and sellers following the recent volatility. The "Coiled Spring":  This universal neutral alignment suggests that the market is in a highly compressed state. The entire trend structure has reset its energy, and the subsequent directional breakout is likely to be sharp and high-velocity, regardless of the chosen direction. Structural Trend Defense:  The Base Term (14-Period) trend successfully held its ground within the "Neutral" tier during the recent volatility. This confirms that the underlying medium-term uptrend, which began earlier in the year, is still technically sound and resilient. Key Pivot Point:  The price is sitting directly on the 32,500c - 33,000c  pivot zone. The resolution of the momentum compression will determine whether the stock challenges the previous cycle high or reverts to lower support. Best Action Timeline/Price Action Probability 1-2 trading sessions:   60% Probability of Continuation of Consolidation.  The market will likely remain compressed between 32,500c and 33,500c , waiting for the first indicator to break its neutral boundaries. 3-5 (1 Week) trading sessions:   70% Probability of Directional Breakout.  The indicators are too coiled to stay neutral for long. Watch for the Ultra Short Term indicator to break decisively above 65  (Bullish trigger) or below 35  (Bearish trigger). 6-10 (2 Weeks) trading sessions:   65% Probability of Sustained Trend.  The Base Term momentum will likely be dragged by the faster indicator, confirming a sustained move either toward 35,000c  or 30,000c . 🟢 Bullish Scenario:   Breakout Confirmation:  The Ultra Short Term indicator breaks above the "Strong" threshold (65+), forcing price to clear 33,500c . This resolves the coiled spring dynamic to the upside, targeting 35,000c . ⚪ Base Scenario:   Extended Compression:  The stock holds tight between 32,500c and 33,500c . Momentum indicators remain locked in the Neutral zone for another 3-5 sessions, delaying the major directional decision. 🔴 Bearish Scenario:   Compression Failure:  The Ultra Short Term indicator breaks decisively below the "Weak" threshold (35), signaling a failure of the recent high. Price slices through 32,000c , leading to a sharp flush toward the 30,000c  psychological support. Momentum Profile (Daily Focus) The entire momentum structure is in a state of Equilibrium , with all four proprietary trend tiers indicating NEUTRAL  conditions: Ultra Short Term:  Indication: NEUTRAL . Slope: Flat. Short Term:  Indication: NEUTRAL . Slope: Flat. Mid Term:  Indication: NEUTRAL . Slope: Flat. Base Term:  Indication: NEUTRAL . Slope: Flat. Core Thesis Harmony Gold is currently paused in a perfect state of equilibrium. The setup is highly volatile, offering no immediate directional bias but signaling a significant move is imminent once the Ultra Short Term momentum breaks its neutral floor. This is a setup requiring patience and strict adherence to breakout levels. Key Actionable Zones Immediate Resistance:   33,500c  (Recent High / Breakout Trigger). Critical Pivot:   32,500c  (Current Consolidation Base). Major Support:   30,000c  (Psychological Round Number). Trend Floor:   29,000c  (Structural Low). Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes December 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rdec2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za In our previous note (see below), we re-iterated our long term target of R220. This level has been exceeded, with a high R225 today. Previous Post (23 January): How To Trade Absa Group (ABG): Key Takeaways : 1. Fundamentals Remain Appealing 2. Currently Unwinding From An Overbought Range 3. The next-best probability re-accumulation range is between 17930c and 18150c. This range is subject to change as the price action and news flow develops. In recent months, we have expressed our views around buy/long side opportunities in ABSA, with these short to medium term structures coming to fruition as the group reported results that were above analyst consensus expectations. The surge to above R195 placed the share in short term overbought territory, with the price action model confirming that the reward-to-risk for the short term traders had become unappealing. Below, the time-stamped model is shown: What has transpired since? As noted, the share traded into the 19600c/19900c range and has since experienced a period of distribution (selling) to below 18700c. Note the short term deteriorating candle structure. Where is the next best level to accumulate? Both the 50-day and 75-EMA continue to trend higher, with the price trading above these areas. The share price is also trading above it's rising 21-week EMA. There is an unfilled gap at 18203c, which is broadly in line with both the 75-day and 21week EMA. These are approximate areas meaning that the price can overshoot to the downside (or not reach it at all). For now, my next-best probability re-accumulation range is between 17930c and 18150c. This range is subject to change as the price action and news flow develops. Analyst's Price Action Model Previous Post: ABSA GROUP Voluntary Trading Upside Accelerates Fundamental Re-Rating Coming off a low base, materially stronger earnings growth is expected for 2024. The share has materially outperformed it's peer group this week but remains muted over the long term. This gives the share room to advance over the medium. To re-iterate, my long term target is R220. Please scroll down for the previous posts. Previous Post: ABSA GROUP: Absolute & Relative Re-Rating Thursday 05 December 2024 (Time: 06:21) In March, below R145, Clients were alerted to an opportunity to accumulate, driven by the model reading. Yesterday, the share was the strongest performer amongst the financials. On an absolute basis, the share is trading at multi-week highs. On a relative basis, the share is looking to breach it's downward trend vs the JSE Top 40 Index. To me, it looks the like the start of a re-rating and the potential start of relative outperformance. Remember, it's been very cheap with an appealing valuation. The ratio chart is shown below: Previous Post: Absa Group: Relative Value Monday 25 November 2024 (Time Published: 06h28) Fundamentally undervalued + has not participated in the re-rating of South African equities. Whilst it is trading off the Q2 lows, the share remains in a multi-year consolidation phase and off it's all-time highs. Long Term Target = R220. View as of Thursday 21 November at 09h59. Previous Post: TRADER'S TOOLBOX: Absa's 3 Major Turning Points - Tuesday, 20 August 2024 The major turning points in the share were late March, mid June and early in August. These 2 longs and 1 short triggers helped traders position for the subsequent moves to take advantage of cash-flow generating opportunities. BUY/LONG Discussed in detail, along with the Tactical Trading Guide on Monday, 25 March. The charts below are also adjusted to include dividends. Short/Sell (Reading/Chart 1) Warning that a buy/long was unappealing. Short/Sell (Reading/Chart 2) Alerting to a 1 to 2 day/week short/sell setup. Buy/Long - Monitor For Bullish Reversal Opportunity V-Shaped reversal followed by massive gap up during yesterday's session (earnings release). Clients of Unum Capital are often alerted to key technical developments which include readings from the Tactical Trading Guide. This acts as a guide which helps to identify both opportunities and risk. To become a client, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011384 2923 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes December 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rdec2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (Monday, 01 December): Running 22%: Take Profits on Silver (Short Term Traders) The graphic below was included in our previous note where Silver traded into oversold territory. Previous Post (27 October): Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Trades Into Short Term Oversold Territory Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes December 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rdec2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Technical Take: Momentum-Based Technical Take: Price Action Model-Based Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.  The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm   Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective.  The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar'   This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE  note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE  of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital