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Research Notes For 16 to 20 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1620june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF (IAI) offers investors targeted exposure to the American investment services industry. This exchange-traded fund aims to track the performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Select Investment Services Index, which is composed of companies engaged in activities such as investment banking, brokerage services, and operating securities and commodity exchanges. By holding a portfolio of these specialized financial firms, the ETF provides a way to invest in the operational and trading-focused segments of the U.S. financial sector, distinct from traditional banking or insurance. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 16 to 20 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1620june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Four months ago (16-February) we discussed the long term setup on Platinum, highlighting the potential for a breached of the downward trend. Over the last few month we have seen outsized moves in the metal, taking it to a 4-year high, crossing above $1300.The original post is shown below. Previous Post (16 February) Platinum: Zooming Out Weekly Chart - Constructive - Potential Change of Trend Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 16 to 20 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1620june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (Pre-Market Monday 19 May): Trading S&P 500 Index: A 20% Rebound; Now In Overbought Range Since highlighting the Market Risk Index on Wednesday 09 April, the S&P 500 has rebounded 20%. Current 7-day trend:   Overbought Current 14-day trend:   Very Bullish Opportunity for a short-term buy/long position?  Buyers are in control, but there is weakness. A lower time frame look for a pullback to the 8 or 21-EMA (buy range) before the next move higher is suggested. Opportunity for a short-term sell/short position?  Not explicitly mentioned for the short term. Current position & trend for the short term (1 to 10 days):  Buyers in control but with weakness, looking for a pullback to buy. Current position & trend for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks):  Steady upward trend with possible consolidation around these levels. Current position & trend for the long term (5 to 8 weeks):  Attempting to advance whilst in a bullish regime. If it pulls back use the prior session close or 8-EMA as an accumulation zone. Previous Post (09 April): Market Risk Index: The Weekly Reading Is Worth Noting! *Weekly Time Frame* - Current *Monthly Time Frame* - Current The indicator is a custom-built risk and sentiment index, designed to assess market risk appetite, including whether sentiment is at an extreme position (i.e. excessively bullish or excessively bearish). Components: Copper: Copper often serves as a proxy for global economic activity. A decline in copper prices could signal slowing economic growth, increasing risk. High Beta vs Low Beta: High beta stocks tend to be more volatile than low beta stocks. A widening spread between high and low beta returns might indicate increased risk aversion. Growth vs Value: Growth stocks typically outperform value stocks in bull markets. A shift towards value stocks could suggest investors are becoming more cautious. EM Currencies: Emerging market currencies can be sensitive to risk appetite. A weakening of EM currencies could signal increased risk aversion. AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar is often used as a proxy for global risk sentiment. A decline in AUD/USD could indicate increased risk aversion. Consumer Staples vs Consumer Discretionary: Consumer staples are generally considered defensive assets. A shift towards consumer staples could suggest investors are seeking safety. Semiconductors vs S&P 500: The semiconductor sector is cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns. Underperformance of semiconductors relative to the broader market could signal increased risk. Russell 2000 ETF: This ETF tracks small-cap stocks, which are generally considered riskier than large-cap stocks. Underperformance of the Russell 2000 could suggest increased risk aversion. U.S. Dollar Index (Inverse): A strengthening US Dollar often signals a flight to safety, suggesting increased risk aversion.

Research Notes For 16 to 20 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1620june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Overall Trading Considerations for British American Tobacco (BTI): Strong but cautious short-term outlook:  The 14-day trend is "Very Bullish" with buyers in control. However, the 7-day trend is "Overbought," and the model advises not to chase the price, as a failure to hold highs could become a short/sell target. Slowing medium-term momentum:  The outlook for the next 2 to 4 weeks shows a strong upside move, but the momentum is slowing down as sellers become active. Unattractive long-term position:  For the long term (5 to 8 weeks), the model gives a clear warning: "Do Not Enter Long," stating that the risk-reward is unattractive. In summary, for BTI , the current view is bullish in the short term, but with a strong need for caution due to overbought conditions. This upward momentum is expected to slow in the medium term, and the long-term outlook is unfavorable for new long positions. The model points to a potential for continued short-term gains for the share price, but with increasing risk and a less attractive setup over the medium to long term. Previous Post (Friday 06 June) Here's a breakdown of the current price action: The 7-day trend is indicated as "High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought," while the 14-day trend is "Very Bullish." Comparison : Both the short-term  (7-day) and slightly longer short-term  (14-day) trends indicate upward momentum ("High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought" and "Very Bullish" respectively). This suggests a consistent buying pressure across these timeframes. The "Very Bullish" 14-day trend reinforces the "High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought" 7-day trend, indicating that the recent strength is part of a broader upward movement, but with a note of approaching overbought conditions in the very short-term . Potential Trading Approach for BTI : Short Term (Approximately Next 1 to 10 Trading Days) : The model notes, "Very Strong Move Buyers In Control But Don't Chase-May Fail At Attempt To Hold The Highs-If It Doesn't Hold Then The 8-EMA May Be A Short/Sell Target." Approach : While there are very strong buyers in control, avoid simply chasing the price higher. Look for potential short-sell opportunities if the price fails to hold the highs, targeting a move back down to the 8-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Medium Term (Approximately Next 2 to 4 Weeks) : The model indicates "Very Strong Move Buyers In Control But Don't Chase-May Fail At Attempt To Hold The Highs-If It Doesn't Hold Then The 8-EMA May Be A Short/Sell Target." Approach : The medium term  suggests that the recent bullish activity is very strong, but with the same caution against chasing and a potential short/sell target at the 8-EMA if highs aren't held. This supports a bullish bias over the next few weeks but advises tactical entry. Long Term (Approximately Next 5 to 8 Weeks) : The model states, "Very Strong Move Buyers In Control But Don't Chase-May Fail At Attempt To Hold The Highs-If It Doesn't Hold Then The 8-EMA May Be A Short/Sell Target." Approach : The long-term  perspective indicates very strong buyer control, but it reiterates the same caution as the short  and medium terms : avoid chasing, and be aware that failure to hold highs could lead to a short/sell target at the 8-EMA. Overall Trading Considerations for BTI : Consistent bullish momentum: Both short  and slightly longer short-term  trends are bullish, supporting upward price action, with a note of approaching overbought conditions. Short-term  caution: Despite the buying pressure, the model advises against chasing and suggests looking for short-sell entries if highs are not held, with the 8-EMA as a potential target. Medium-term  and Long-term  consistency: Both medium  and long-term  outlooks echo the short-term  sentiment of very strong buyers but with the same critical caveat about not chasing and the potential for a retracement to the 8-EMA if highs aren't maintained. In summary, for BTI, the current view is bullish across short  to long terms , driven by very strong buyer control. However, traders should be cautious of potential overbought conditions in the very short-term  and the recurring warning across all timeframes to avoid chasing the price. Tactical short opportunities may arise if the stock fails to hold its highs, targeting the 8-EMA. Previous Post (04 April): Higher By 50% In 16 Months The extract below is from a note to clients on Wednesday, 06 December 2023 at 53198c, highlighting both a manual view (channel) as well as the price action model reading. Within just 16 month, the share has gained 51% and trades above R800, it's highest level since January 2018. This post is a continuation of the commentary on the share at various points over the 13 months (beginning December 2023). It highlights both the manual views and automated tool used to take advantage of opportunities on both the buy (long) and sell (short) side. The share currently trades at a 2-year high. Well done to clients who may have capitalized on these opportunities. At current levels, the model reading is as follows: Previous Post: A Useful Tool For Uncovering Opportunity & Assessing Reward-To-Risk: BTI As An Example Monday 25 November 2024 (Time: 11h04) Are you taking advantage of the tools provided? On the back of a the model reading on Friday 18 October (end of day) : "The reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position", BTI has rallied from R600 to R680 Both the previous long and short side posts are shown below ( scroll down for the previous posts ) Below is the reading for Fri 18-October, as mentioned above: Previous Post: Get Ready To Trade: British American Tobacco Date: Monday, 07 October 2024 Time Published: Pre-Market Ticker: BTI My model called for a pullback from overbought conditions, citing an unattractive reward-to-risk on the buy/long side. Since then, the share has retreated from R690 to below R610 Next Best Probability Entry Range is shown below. Previous Post: Thursday, 05 September 2024 Real-Time: 14h00 Ticker: BTI Previous Post(s) Real-Time: 10h53 Ticker: BTI BTI has been a profitable medium term trading opportunity for clients of Unum Capital. At current levels, the high bullish momentum conditions benefit existing shareholders however, it may also be an opportunity to reduce into strength. As re-iterated on Monday, 29 April: As discussed in December: Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 16 to 20 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1620june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za High Bearish Momentum, But Early Buy/Long Trigger On Lower Time Frame Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 16 to 20 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1620june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF, ticker symbol IEO, is an exchange-traded fund designed to provide investors with targeted exposure to the domestic energy sector. Specifically, the fund seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. equities in the oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) industry. This allows investors to gain access to a portfolio of companies primarily involved in the upstream operations of the oil and gas industry, which includes finding and extracting crude oil and natural gas. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 16 to 20 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1620june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 16 to 20 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1620june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The iShares North American Natural Resources ETF (IGE) offers investors a focused way to gain exposure to the vital natural resources sector within North America. This ETF tracks an index composed of North American equities involved in various facets of the natural resources industry, including oil and gas, mining, and forestry companies. For those looking to diversify their portfolio beyond traditional sectors or to capitalize on specific commodity trends, IGE presents a compelling option. One key reason to consider IGE is its targeted exposure to a critical sector. Natural resources are fundamental to global economic activity, and demand for energy, metals, and other raw materials remains consistently strong, albeit with cyclical fluctuations. By investing in IGE, investors gain access to a basket of established companies that are directly involved in the exploration, production, processing, and transportation of these essential resources. This can provide a degree of inflation hedge and potentially benefit from periods of rising commodity prices. The development and potential breakout of a 17-year base has piqued our interest and alerts us to get ready for a potential base breakout above $47.90. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 16 to 20 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1620june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za This is an update on our previous view which alerted traders to the deteriorating candle structure. On Friday we saw the bearish igniting bar while today (Tuesday) we saw downside follow-through. We've been trading in an overbought range therefore it's no surprise to see index experience some selling amidst the rise in geopolitical risks. Previous Post (Friday, 13 June): JSE Top 40 Index: Bearish Igniting Candle From Overbought Range; Distribution Candles & Deteriorating Breadth Confirmed Friday's candle is worth noting. As noted on Wednesday: "...SHORT TERM DISTRIBUTION CANDLES". Previous Post (Wednesday 11 June): JSE Top 40 Index: Short Term Distribution Candles Flash Comment/Further Update: Tight consolidation in an overbought range. Take note of these candles here. As noted on Friday, the model points to an OVERBOUGHT range! Previous Post (Friday 06 June): JSE Top 40 Index: The index is higher by 26% versus the low on Monday 07 April. The move is in line with the price action model reading at the time (included in the original note) where the long term reading (approximately 5 to 8 weeks) stated the following: "Aggressive selling is underway following a steady upward trend. Look for support at the prior swing lows to capture minor rebounds" . Here's a breakdown of the current price action: The 7-day trend  is indicated as " Overbought ," while the 14-day trend  is " Very Bullish ." Comparison : The 7-day trend  being "Overbought" suggests that the price has risen significantly in a short period and might be due for a pause or pullback. Conversely, the 14-day trend  being "Very Bullish" indicates strong upward momentum over a slightly longer timeframe. This implies that while the immediate short-term might see some exhaustion from being "Overbought," the underlying momentum over the past two weeks remains strongly bullish. The "Overbought" 7-day trend could be a temporary condition within the broader "Very Bullish" 14-day trend. Potential Trading Approach: Short Term (Approximately Next 1 to 10 Trading Days):  The model notes, "Very Strong Move Buyers In Control But Don't Chase-May Fail At Attempt To Hold The Highs-If It Doesn't Hold Then The 8-EMA May Be A Short/Sell Target." Approach : While buyers are in strong control, avoid chasing the price higher. Look for potential short-sell opportunities if the price fails to hold the recent highs, targeting a move back down to the 8-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This suggests a tactical approach of fading strength if it shows signs of exhaustion. Medium Term (Approximately Next 2 to 4 Weeks):  The model indicates "Very Strong Move Buyers In Control But Don't Chase-May Fail At Attempt To Hold The Highs-If It Doesn't Hold Then The 8-EMA May Be A Short/Sell Target." Approach : Similar to the short-term, buyers are in strong control, but the same cautionary advice applies. Do not chase the price. Be prepared for potential failures to hold highs, and consider the 8-EMA as a short/sell target if such failures occur. This implies a continuation of the strong bullish sentiment but with an ongoing emphasis on tactical risk management around overextended moves. Long Term (Approximately Next 5 to 8 Weeks):  The model states, "Very Strong Move Buyers In Control But Don't Chase-May Fail At Attempt To Hold The Highs-If It Doesn't Hold Then The 8-EMA May Be A Short/Sell Target." Approach : The long-term perspective also shows buyers firmly in control. The consistent advice across all timeframes is not to chase the price and to be mindful of potential failures to hold highs, where the 8-EMA could serve as a short/sell target. This suggests a sustained bullish outlook, but with an underlying strategy that prioritizes patience and tactical selling into strength if momentum falters at key levels. Overall Trading Considerations: Consistent bullish momentum : Both short and slightly longer short-term trends are bullish, supporting upward price action. Caution against chasing : A crucial and consistent theme across all timeframes is the warning against chasing the price. This suggests that while the overall trend is up, the market might be prone to short-term pullbacks or corrections. Tactical short opportunities : The repeated mention of "May Fail At Attempt To Hold The Highs-If It Doesn't Hold Then The 8-EMA May Be A Short/Sell Target" across all timeframes indicates that even within a strong bullish trend, tactical short-selling opportunities back to the 8-EMA are likely to arise. 8-EMA as a key level : The 8-EMA is identified as a potential target for short/sell positions if the price fails to hold higher levels, making it a critical level to monitor. In summary , for JSE TOP 40 INDEX, the current view is strongly bullish across all timeframes. Buyers are in control, suggesting continued upward momentum. However, a significant and repeated caveat is the strong advice against chasing the price. Instead, the model emphasizes looking for potential short-selling opportunities if the market fails to hold recent highs, with the 8-EMA serving as a key target. This indicates a strategy of participating in the bullish trend but with a tactical approach to manage overbought conditions or temporary pullbacks. Previous Post (Sunday 06 April): JSE Top 40 Index: Weekly Chart Analysis JSE Top 40 Index Analysis: Short Term (1 to 10 days):  The short-term reading is Oversold . This suggests that the index has likely experienced a significant decline and may be due for a rebound or consolidation. However, being oversold alone doesn't guarantee an immediate reversal. Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks):  The medium-term reading is Weak . This implies that the index has been trending downwards over the past few weeks, indicating underlying selling pressure. Long Term (5 to 8 weeks):  The long-term reading is Neutral . This suggests that over a broader timeframe, the index hasn't established a clear upward or downward trend. Overall Assessment: Taking into account the weighted importance (short-term being the most significant), the JSE Top 40 Index exhibits deteriorating  price action. While the oversold reading in the short term might offer a temporary bounce, the weakness in the medium term, coupled with the lack of a strong long-term trend, suggests caution. The recent price action is more aligned with the medium-term weakness than the potential for a short-term recovery. JSE TOP 40 WEEKLY CHART Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 16 to 20 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1620june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (Monday 09 June): FSR Running 30%. Potential Resistance Into The 200-Day SMA. The share has rebounded sharply, with today's high being 30% above the buy range of 5800c to 6000c. The price action model reading as at the time of analysis is as follows: Here's a breakdown of the current price action: The 7-day trend is indicated as "High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought," while the 14-day trend is "Bullish." Comparison: Both the short-term (7-day) and slightly longer short-term (14-day) trends indicate upward momentum ("High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought" and "Bullish" respectively). This suggests a consistent buying pressure across these timeframes. The "Bullish" 14-day trend reinforces the "High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought" 7-day trend, indicating that the recent strength is part of a broader upward movement. Potential Trading Approach for FSR: Short Term  (Approximately Next 1 to 10 Trading Days): The model notes, "Attempting To Advance Whilst In A Bullish Regime-If It Pulls Back Use The Prior Session Close or 8-EMA As An Accumulation Zone." Approach : While the stock is attempting to advance in a bullish regime, if it pulls back, use the prior session's close or the 8-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as an accumulation zone. Medium Term  (Approximately Next 2 to 4 Weeks): The model indicates "In or Commencing Upward Trend However Strongly Consider The Potential Failure To Hold Prior Session Range Highs Which Will Create A Tactical Short-Sell Opportunity." Approach : The medium term suggests that the stock is in or commencing an upward trend. However, strongly consider the potential for failure to hold prior session range highs, as this would create a tactical short-sell opportunity. Long Term  (Approximately Next 5 to 8 Weeks): The model states, "In or Commencing Upward Trend However Strongly Consider The Potential Failure To Hold Prior Session Range Highs Which Will Create A Tactical Short-Sell Opportunity." Approach : The long-term perspective also indicates that the stock is in or commencing an upward trend. Similar to the medium term, it's crucial to strongly consider the potential for failure to hold prior session range highs, as this would create a tactical short-sell opportunity. Overall Trading Considerations for FSR: Consistent bullish momentum: Both short and slightly longer short-term trends are bullish, supporting upward price action. Short-term caution: Despite the buying pressure, the model advises using pullbacks to the prior session's close or 8-EMA as accumulation zones. Medium-term and Long-term caution: Both the medium and long-term perspectives highlight a significant caution: the potential failure to hold prior session range highs, which would create a tactical short-sell opportunity. In summary , for FSR, the current view is bullish across short to long terms, with strong momentum in the short term. However, traders should be acutely aware of the potential for failure to hold prior session range highs, as this is identified as a key trigger for tactical short-sell opportunities across all timeframes beyond the very short term. Previous Post: Actionable Areas: FirsrRand (Published Saturday 05 April for Monday 07 April) Original Post: https://www.unum.capital/post/fsraction FirstRand (FSR) is down 29% from it's Sept-2024 peak, with the share trading near it's June lows. It's not inconceivable that the share could trade down at the 5800c to 6000c range , which is a medium term support range. At current levels, oversold conditions are already present which reflects aggressive selling pressure however, also raises the probability of an ultra short term rebound . Last close: 6293c FSR Daily Chart as of the close on Friday 04 April Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 16 to 20 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1620june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Here's a breakdown of the current price action: The 7-day trend is indicated as "Strong," while the 14-day trend is "Bullish." Comparison:  The short-term trend (7-day) is "Strong" and the slightly longer short-term trend (14-day) is "Bullish." This indicates solid upward momentum. The "Strong" 7-day trend suggests that recent buying pressure is potent, while the "Bullish" 14-day trend confirms this strength is part of a broader upward movement, though perhaps not as accelerated as the most recent trend. Overall Trading Considerations: Underlying Bullish Tone:  The trend across all timeframes is upward, indicating a generally bullish market. Consolidation and Pullbacks:  A key theme is the expectation of consolidation and pullbacks. The model consistently advises against chasing the price and instead recommends using dips to specific moving averages (8 and 21-EMA) as entry points. Buyer Control with Caution:  While buyers are in control, the model signals short-term weakness, reinforcing a patient, dip-buying approach. Steady Long-Term Ascent:  The long-term view is positive but tempered with the possibility of consolidation, suggesting a grinding, steady move up rather than a parabolic one. In summary, for EUR/USD, the current view is bullish across the observed timeframes, but it is characterized by consolidation and expected pullbacks. Traders should be patient and look for buying opportunities on dips to the 8 or 21-EMA. The model points to a general upward trend for the price of EUR/USD . Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 16 to 20 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1620june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The chart below puts into context the distance which Sasol trades below the 200-week moving average, relative to the JSE Top 40 Index. Distance = 65%, The 2nd furthest distance in 20 years. Previous Post (Friday, 13 June): Trading Sasol: Riding The 8/21-EMA To R100 + Approaching Target On 23 May, the published price action model highlighted the following: "Strong, Bullish, Look for a pullback to the 8/21-EMA before a move higher. On Frida, the share reached R100, just shy of the R107 to R112 target. The model reading, as of Friday's close, if as follows: Overall Trading Considerations: Current Price Action & Trends: 7-Day Trend:  Overbought 14-Day Trend:  Very Bullish Comparison:  While the 14-day trend is "Very Bullish" indicating strong upward momentum, the 7-day trend being "Overbought" suggests that the recent short-term buying pressure has been quite intense, possibly leading to a stretched condition in the very short term. This implies that while the underlying trend is strong, a temporary breather might be due. Potential Trading Approach: Short Term (Approximately Next 1 to 10 Trading Days): Model Notes:  "Very Strong Move Buyers In Control But Don't Chase-May Fail At Attempt To Hold The Highs-If It Doesn't Hold Then The 8-EMA May Be A Short/Sell Target." Approach:  Buyers are clearly in control with a very strong move, but the "Overbought" 7-day trend aligns with the caution not to "chase" the price. Instead, consider waiting for a potential pullback. If the current high levels are not sustained, the 8-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) could become a short-term sell target or a level to watch for a possible entry if it acts as support. This suggests a cautious "buy the dip" or even a short-term reversal trade if the highs aren't held. Medium Term (Approximately Next 2 to 4 Weeks): Model Notes:  "Aggressive Buying But Do Not Chase-Look For Overshoot or Failure to Hold Prior Session Range Highs To Short-Sell Back To The 8-EMA." Approach:  The aggressive buying continues into the medium term. However, the strong emphasis on "Do Not Chase" is reiterated. The strategy suggests looking for an "overshoot" (price moving too far too fast) or a "failure to hold prior session range highs." In such scenarios, a short-sell back to the 8-EMA is suggested, indicating that the 8-EMA might serve as a potential support level after a corrective move, or as a profit-taking target for short positions initiated at overextended highs. This implies an opportunistic approach, potentially fading extreme moves within the broader upward trend. Long Term (Approximately Next 5 to 8 Weeks): Model Notes:  "Strong Candle Structure (Bullish Attempt) Following A Generally Weaker Trend." Approach:  The long-term view indicates a significant bullish attempt through strong candle structures, especially after a period of general weakness. This suggests a potential reversal of a prior downtrend or a strong continuation of a new uptrend on the longer timeframe. This points towards a more sustained bullish outlook in the coming weeks, potentially indicating that any short or medium-term pullbacks could be opportunities within a larger upward trajectory. Overall Trading Considerations: Consistent Bullish Momentum (Medium to Long Term):  The 14-day trend is "Very Bullish," and the long-term outlook shows a "Strong Candle Structure (Bullish Attempt) Following A Generally Weaker Trend." This indicates a sustained underlying upward bias for SASOL over the next several weeks. Short-Term Caution & Opportunity:  The 7-day trend being "Overbought" and the short/medium-term advice to "Do Not Chase" suggests that while buyers are in control, the price may be extended in the immediate future. Traders should look for pullbacks (e.g., to the 8-EMA) as potential buying opportunities or even consider short-term fades if highs are not held, before the next leg higher. Strategic Entries:  The emphasis on waiting for pullbacks or failures at highs rather than chasing the price is a key theme across the shorter timeframes, aiming for more optimal entry points. Potential for Significant Upward Movement:  The strong bullish attempt in the long term, following a weaker trend, suggests that SASOL could be entering a more significant upward phase. In essence, the current view is bullish across the medium to long terms, with strong underlying momentum. However, short and medium-term traders should exercise caution regarding current price levels, looking for strategic entries on pullbacks or potential short-term reversals from overextended positions, within the context of the broader upward trend. Previous Post (Tuesday 10 June): Trading Sasol: Pullback To 8-EMA Followed By Upside Follow-Through + Updated Model Reading. The share is in line with the model reading which stated that the 8/21-day EMA range was a level to which the share could retrace into before potentially moving higher. Since then we saw the price consolidate, re-test the 8-day EMA then rally to a multi-month high today (Tuesday, 10 June). the 200-day simple moving average and 50-week exponential moving average is a possible resistance range in the ultra short term. Above that R107 to R112 is a broader selling/resistance range while a pullback into R76 to R79 could offer another re-accumulation range. Previous Post (26 May) How To Trade Sasol, and Recent Opportunities via the Price Action Model The share has had a strong rebound off the 09 April lows (5301c) to it's recent high of 8662c. In the process, the 50-day EMA was reclaimed with strong candle structure reflecting strong buying interest. The current two-day retracement (from +8600c to 7900c) appears to be the start of a re-test of the 50-day exponential moving average (which has now started to turn up). For active traders looking for a buy re-entry range, the 50-day EMA (at or just below) is a provisional range. We are marking 6900c to 7300c for now. The 200-day SMA continues to trend down, which could act as a temporary resistance range. Recent Opportunities: Time-stamped examples from the price action model. INTO THE LOWS (04 April): "Aggressive selling underway, however the buy/long reward-to-risk may be attractive". INTO THE HIGHS (20 & 21 May): "Aggressive buying underway but overbought on the lower time frames. Expect a consolidation or a minor retracement". Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital