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  • 🔔Strategy Alert: Momentum Group

    Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Sasol: Above R80; Recovering In Line With Model Data

    Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (Wednesday 14 May at 11h28): Sasol: Here's What The Data Says 7-Day Trend:   High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought . 14-Day Trend:   Bullish. Short-term (1 to 10 days):   Aggressive buying is underway. A strategy could be to watch for a potential overshoot or failure to hold prior session range highs, which might present an opportunity to short-sell back to the 8-EMA. Medium-term (2 to 4 weeks):   Strong candle structure with a bullish attempt is forming, following a generally weaker trend. Long-term (5 to 8 weeks):   A strong attempt at a bullish reversal is occurring after aggressive selling. In summary , aggressive buying is currently underway in the short term, but a strategy to consider is to watch for potential short-selling opportunities if the price action fails to hold. The medium-term shows a bullish attempt after a weaker trend, and the long-term indicates a strong bullish reversal following aggressive selling. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Old Mutual: The Model Looked For A Short Setup; Now Underway

    Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Shorts Generating Cash Flow The move is in line with insurance industry peer OUTSURANCE, which we also discussed on 30 April. See that update here: https://www.unum.capital/post/outsurecash Previous Post (Thursday 15 May): How Cool Is This? The motivation behind the Tactical Trading Guide ( price action model ) was to systematically uncover opportunities and assess reward-to-risk, saving time in the process! In essence, the model is the analyst's thought process, on paper.   Here, clients have access  to a process that has help to guide traders in order to generate cash and which has helped to manage risk. OLD MUTUAL  is one of those names where the model stated: (1) "The general trend is up, however, look for a failure to hold the prior sessions highs to initiate a 1-2 day short setup" Scroll down to view the reading for the close of business on Friday 09 April. On Monday 12 April, traders had the opportunity to initiate a position, which was followed by a move from 1220c to 1157c. Previous Post (Published Saturday 10 May for Monday 12 May): +60 Shares Commentary (incl. African Rainbow Minerals, Ninety One & Sibanye Stillwater) Trade JSE Shares  with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Friday 09 May. These are subject to change as the price action develops. SHOULD YOU URGENTLY REQUIRE A READING FOR THE LONG TERM, YOU ARE WELCOME TO E-MAIL ME AT LESTER@UNUM.CO.ZA Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • +60 Shares Commentary (incl. Capitec, Exxaro & Naspers)

    Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Click on the image to enlarge. Readings as of the close of trade on Tuesday 20 May. These are subject to change as the price action develops. Short Term (approximately 1 to 10 days) Medium Term (approximately 2 to 4 weeks) Long Term (approximately 5 to 8 weeks) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Platinum (XPTUSD)

    Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Three month ago (16-February) we discussed the long term setup on Platinum, highlighting the potential for a breached of the downward trend. Yesterday we saw some outsized moves in the metal (along with Palladium). Month-to-date XPTUSD is higher by +9%. Previous Post (16 February) Platinum: Zooming Out Weekly Chart - Constructive - Potential Change of Trend Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading Sibanye Stillwater: Running +70%

    Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Closed yesterday's session at a multi-month high (intraday high of 2410c) Now trading higher by 73%. Previous Post: Sibanye Stillwater - Long Term Cycle Ready To Unfold? SSW Monthly Chart - as of Thursday 27 February at 13h13 #EarlyAccess Upper Panel: SSW Relative To JSE Top 40 Index (Weekly Chart) - as of Thursday 27 February at 13h10 Lower Panel: Distance vs 200-Week SMA. The ratio is trading 67% below it's 200-week, which is an extreme disconnect from the long term average. In July we discussed a potential scenario for the share, with the potential path being a drop down to a potential range 1264c to 1353c before a potential rally off the long term channel support. The share dropped to 1400c which was followed by a rally to 2300c. Taking a step back, are we seeing the long term cycle unfolding? The slide below is from report: "Active Trading Plan: Monday 29 July 2024". Related Post: Sibanye Stillwater: Right Reading, Right Time Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • JSE Top 40 Index: Short Term Cycle

    Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The strong upward trend over the past 5 weeks has pushed the index to an all-time high with a +21% gain over the 5-week period. As we previous noted, the candle structure and breadth has been reflective of early distribution (index level and selected counters) which should caution traders against aggressive buying into multi-week highs. At current levels the reward-to-risk on the buying long side is less appealing that what was on offer in previous weeks (specifically 07 - 09 April). As you will have seen on the website, the price action model reading highlighted a high bullish momentum / approaching overbought technical regime while the price action probability over the short term (1 to 10 days) reflected the potential for the index to fails to hold it's highs. On Thursday we saw some of this minor weakness emerge while Friday saw a strong close. Chart as of the close on Friday, 16 May. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • JSE Top 40 Index: Regime Trend Changes

    Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Gold Miners: -23% Relative Unwind From Long Term Inflection Point

    Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za This is an update on the previous note (13 April) in which we alerted traders to JSE gold miners relative inflection point vs the broader market. Since then, the group is lower by 23% on a relative basis. Previous Post (13 April): JSE Gold Miners: After An 80% Rally, Two Charts of Interest Since November, Gold Miners have rallied between 80% and 100%, with the specific gains as follows: ANG R430 to R811 (+86%) GFI R240 to R474 (+97%) HAR R160 to R326 (+100%) JSE Gold Miners (Equally-Weighted) - Monthly Chart Trading at a long term inflection point. JSE Gold Miners (Equally-Weighted) Relative To The JSE Top 40 Index Previous Post: The graphic below is an extract from the report (The Sum of the Charts) dated Monday 18 November (2024) and highlights the price action model readings which was taken during the analyst's research as at the close of trade on Thursday 14 November (2024). The readings coincided with the range lows for the share and has subsequently staged substantial rallies over the period. This is NOT ONLY for the 1 to 10 day time frames (where the model stated that the reward-to-risk had become attractive for a buy/long position , but ALSO for the 5 to 8 week time frames which stated that there was a probability of a rebound (see both ANG and GFI). Scroll down to view all three charts as well as the levels which coincided with the readings. Click to enlarge the image. Anglogold Ashanti - Price Action Model Reading as of Friday afternoon, 28 March. Gold Fields - Price Action Model Reading as of Friday afternoon, 28 March. Harmony Gold - Price Action Model Reading as of Friday afternoon, 28 March. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Momentum-Metropolitan: Running Short Term (+26%) & Long Term (+137%) + Current Model Reading

    Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Now a +22% Rally Off The Confluence Zone (26 February Note) Also higher by 128% from our (short term) buy idea 01 August 2022. As discussed on the morning of 26 February, the 50-week (as per the model) was support. Both the trading statement for the six months ended 31 December 2024 as well as the subsequent results sparked sharp rallies. Our original buy/long view was at 1489c. On Friday (16 May 2025), the share reached an multi-year high of 3541c. The current price action model reading is as follows: From a medium to long term portfolio perspective, the share has rallied sharply. Over the period (since 01 August 2022), the share has significantly outperformed it's peers. Previous Post: Trading Momentum Metropolitan: 50-Week/200-Day Convergence Previous Post (Wednesday 12 February) Preferred Strategies & Setups To Generate Cash Flow (Click To Enlarge) Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Trading AngloGold Ashanti, Gold Fields & Harmony Gold

    Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za AngloGold Ashanti (ANG) 7-Day Trend:  Weak 14-Day Trend:  Rangebound Short Term (1 to 10 trading days):  Very weak. The model suggests waiting until it stabilizes on the lower time frame. Medium Term (Next 2 to 4 weeks):  Upward trend that has turned weaker. It suggests using rebounds into the 8, 21, or 50-EMA (Exponential Moving Averages) as a potential short sell range. Long Term (Next 5 to 8 weeks):  Strong upward trend but long risk-reward unattractive with a minor pullback at the present consolidation. In essence, the model indicates a weak short-term outlook, a potentially weakening medium-term upward trend that could offer short-selling opportunities on rebounds, and a strong but currently unattractive long-term upward trend due to consolidation. Gold Fields (GFI) Short Term (1 to 10 trading days):  Very weak. The model suggests waiting until it stabilizes on the lower time frame. Medium Term (Next 2 to 4 weeks):  Very weak. Similar to the short term, it suggests waiting until it stabilizes on the lower time frame. Long Term (Next 5 to 8 weeks):  Steady upward trend but weaker on the lower time frame. The model suggests looking for support at or just below the 50-EMA, followed by a reclaim to trigger a rebound buy. In summary, the model indicates a weak short-term and medium-term outlook for Gold Fields, while the long-term trend is a steady upward one that is currently weaker on shorter timeframes, with a potential buying opportunity upon finding support and reclaiming the 50-EMA. Harmony Gold (HAR) 7-Day Trend:  Weak. The price trend over the last 7 trading days is characterized as weak. 14-Day Trend:  Bearish. Over the past 14 trading days, the trend is identified as bearish, indicating a downward movement in price. Short Term (Next 1 to 10 Trading Days):  The recommendation is to "Wait Until It Stabilizes On The Lower Time Frame" due to the very weak short-term trend. This suggests uncertainty and advises against immediate action until a clearer bottom or stabilization pattern emerges in a shorter timeframe chart. Medium Term (Next 2 to 4 Weeks):  The analysis indicates an "Upward Trend But Has Turned Weaker." The suggestion is to "Use Rebounds Into The 8, 21 or 50-EMA As A Potential Sell Short Range." This implies that while the medium-term has been upward, it's losing strength, and rallies towards the 8, 21, or 50-period Exponential Moving Averages could present opportunities to enter short positions. Long Term (Next 5 to 8 Weeks):  The assessment is a "Strong Upward Trend But Long Risk Reward Unattractive Minor Pullback At Present Expect Consolidation." This suggests a solid long-term uptrend, but the current risk-reward for entering long positions isn't favorable due to a minor pullback, and the expectation is for a period of consolidation. In essence, the model suggests caution in the short term, potential short opportunities in the medium term on rallies, and while the long-term trend is up, it advises waiting for a better entry point after the current consolidation. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Sector In Focus: JSE Banks

    Research Notes For 19 to 23 May > https://www.unum.capital/post/r1923may Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za PLEASE NOTE: The data/charts were completed during Friday's trading session and reflects price as of the time of analysis. ABSA (ABG):   In the short term (1 to 10 days), the strategy suggests an attempt at a bullish reversal following a consolidation phase. For the medium term (approximately the next 2 to 4 weeks), the strategy indicates an attempted rebound after a downward trend, with potential for further consolidation before a move higher. Looking at the long term (approximately the next 5 to 8 weeks), the strategy suggests a lack of clear directional bias. FIRSTRAND (FSR): Short-term strategy suggests looking for potential buying opportunities as it attempts to advance within a bullish regime, particularly on pullbacks towards the prior session close or the 8-EMA as accumulation zones. The medium-term view indicates an attempt at a bullish reversal after a consolidation phase. For the long term, the strategy is to look for rebound opportunities within a range, generally favoring buying/long positions on strong bids near the high of the range. NEDBANK (NED):  In the short term (1 to 10 days), the share is in or commencing an upward trend, but a strategy should strongly consider a potential tactical short-sell opportunity if prior session range highs fail to hold. For the medium term (2 to 4 weeks) and the long term (5 to 8 weeks), no readings are currently available. STANDARD BANK (SBK): Aggressive buying is underway in the short, medium and long term. However, the overall strategy should be approached with caution. While the short, medium, and long-term trends are upward, a tactical short-sell opportunity exists if the price fails to maintain prior session range highs. Therefore, closely monitor price action and be prepared to capitalize on potential short-selling opportunities while acknowledging the underlying upward momentum. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

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