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  • This Gold Share is Rebounding +4.6% - Ultra Short Term Traders Consider Taking Profits Into Risk Event

    This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. DRD Gold into the buy re-entry range with an opportunity to build a position over the last two sessions. Today +4.2%. Tonight, the FOMC decides on interest rates. If you do not want to hold, then consider reducing into today's strength (i.e. lock in gains). Alternatively, raise your stop-loss to protect profits. Previous Post (11 September): DRD Gold: Actionable Areas Via our watchlist. This note considers the best course of action for the instrument from current levels i.e. the next best-probability actionable areas for active traders. Chart + View as of Friday 11 September at 11h25. Update (Thursday 10 September): All JSE Gold Shares down sharply since Monday 24 August (note published on Sunday 23 August). 98% of our content has always been free. Our research is open, which means that whether you are a client or not, you can access our research, including our trade ideas. If you have been reading our research but use another trading services provider/broker to execute the trades, why not consider moving you trading account to Unum Capital? 🔒To access the ticker, sign up with Unum Capital. To get started email lester@unum.co.za. Active, existing clients can request and access the ticker by contacting lester@unum.co.za 🔒To access the ticker, sign up with Unum Capital. To get started email lester@unum.co.za. Active, existing clients can request and access the ticker by contacting lester@unum.co.za 🔒To access the ticker, sign up with Unum Capital. To get started email lester@unum.co.za. Active, existing clients can request and access the ticker by contacting lester@unum.co.za 🔒To access the ticker, sign up with Unum Capital. To get started email lester@unum.co.za. Active, existing clients can request and access the ticker by contacting lester@unum.co.za About the Price Action Model: A Powerful Tool For Active Traders The price action model is a proprietary non-A.I., excel-based tool. Here Are 5 Real-Time Ideas Which Previously Helped Clients Manage Risk and Uncover Opportunities. Idea Number #1: Valterra Platinum > https://www.unum.capital/post/val1208 Idea Number #2: Harmony Gold > https://www.unum.capital/post/har1108 Idea Number #3: Thungela Resources > https://www.unum.capital/post/tga0804 Idea Number #4: Sasol > https://www.unum.capital/post/solrebo Idea Number #5: Nedbank > https://www.unum.capital/post/ned0603 THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Deeply Oversold (ST & MT): Key Level at ~1670c

    This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Pepkor Holdings Previous Post (02 September)🛜🟩Pepkor: Technical Inflection Point + Early Buy Reading. Lower Levels Expected Before Tactical Rebound Link To Original Post > https://www.unum.capital/post/pph0209 The Price Action Model now forms part of our PREMIUM content. Published Wednesday, 02 September at 14h09. PPH Weekly Chart. "If I want to know the best probability course of action from current levels, I take a reading from the price action model. For years, the price action model has been the tool that has helped me identify opportunities, thereby leading to better outcomes for clients" - Lester Davids The price action model is a proprietary non-A.I., excel-based tool developed by the analyst, based on his understanding on price action, momentum and structure. Here Are 5 Real-Time Ideas Which Helped Clients Manage Risk and Uncover Opportunities. Idea Number #1: Valterra Platinum > https://www.unum.capital/post/val1208 Idea Number #2: Harmony Gold > https://www.unum.capital/post/har1108 Idea Number #3: Thungela Resources > https://www.unum.capital/post/tga0804 Idea Number #4: Sasol > https://www.unum.capital/post/solrebo Idea Number #5: Nedbank > https://www.unum.capital/post/ned0603 Execute Your Trades Via The Unum Capital Trading Desk: For a decade, more than 90% of our research has been free, which means that whether you are a client or not, you can access our insights, including our trade ideas. If you have been reading our research but use another trading services provider/broker to execute the trades, why not consider moving you trading account to Unum Capital thereby routing the trades through our desk? THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Take Profit on this Platinum Share: -7% Rejection vs Sell Re-Entry Range

    This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. The sell re-entry range was originally discussed here on 12 August > https://www.unum.capital/post/imp1208 Previous Post (07 September): Running +24%. Take Profit On This JSE Share Impala Platinum Impala Platinum (IMP): +11.8% Rebound vs Buy Re-Entry ... traded just about at the top of the re-entry range (19931c) so not a huge dip before rebounding. This is an example of buying on a pullback/retracement. Previous Post (12 August): Impala Platinum: Actionable Areas For Short Term Traders READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • 🟩10 Shares Trading at a Discount To Technical Fair Value (TFV)

    This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Disclosure: The data below was generated automatically, using an artificial intelligence tool, base on my own data. Shares Trading at a Technical Discount (Price < TFV) CLS (Clicks Group Limited) — Current Price: 18,879 ZAC | TFV: 24,022 ZAC | Discount (−21.41%) WHL (Woolworths Holdings Limited) — Current Price: 3,690 ZAC | TFV: 4,685 ZAC | Discount (−21.24%) TFG (Foschini Group Limited) — Current Price: 4,990 ZAC | TFV: 6,469 ZAC | Discount (−22.86%) SPP (Spar Group Limited) — Current Price: 4,036 ZAC | TFV: 5,570 ZAC | Discount (−27.54%) WBC (We Buy Cars Holdings Ltd.) — Current Price: 2,861 ZAC | TFV: 3,696 ZAC | Discount (−22.59%) DCP (Dis-Chem Pharmacies Limited) — Current Price: 2,606 ZAC | TFV: 3,097 ZAC | Discount (−15.85%) TRU (Truworths International Limited) — Current Price: 4,445 ZAC | TFV: 5,247 ZAC | Discount (−15.28%) PPH (Pepkor Holdings Ltd.) — Current Price: 1,836 ZAC | TFV: 2,264 ZAC | Discount (−18.90%) KIO (Kumba Iron Ore Limited) — Current Price: 23,643 ZAC | TFV: 27,845 ZAC | Discount (−15.09%) WBO (Wilson Bayly Holmes-Ovcon) — Current Price: 13,580 ZAC | TFV: 15,665 ZAC | Discount (−13.31%) Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS: For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts" help clients identify trading opportunities. When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity. This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out, ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective. The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar' This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • 🟥10 Shares Trading at a Premium To Technical Fair Value (TFV)

    This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Disclosure: The data below was generated automatically, using an artificial intelligence tool, base on my own data. Shares Trading at a Technical Premium (Price > TFV) KRO (Karooooo Ltd.) — Current Price: 108,349 ZAC | TFV: 89,364 ZAC | Premium (+21.24%) SOL (Sasol Limited) — Current Price: 24,081 ZAC | TFV: 18,690 ZAC | Premium (+28.84%) *OMN (Omnia Holdings Limited) — Current Price: 12,472 ZAC | TFV: 10,011 ZAC | Premium (+24.58%) TGA (Thungela Resources Limited) — Current Price: 14,090 ZAC | TFV: 12,166 ZAC | Premium (+15.81%) GND (Grindrod Limited) — Current Price: 2,664 ZAC vs TFV: 2,335 ZAC | Premium (+14.09%) ADH (ADvTECH Limited) — Current Price: 4,901 ZAC | TFV: 4,479 ZAC | Premium (+9.42%) SHP (Shoprite Holdings Limited) — Current Price: 32,013 ZAC | TFV: 29,444 ZAC | Premium (+8.72%) VAL (Valterra Platinum Limited) — Current Price: 141,781 ZAC | TFV: 131,721 ZAC | Premium (+7.64%) NED (Nedbank Group) — Current Price: 29,817 ZAC | TFV: 27,859 ZAC | Premium (+7.03%) DSY (Discovery Limited) — Current Price: 27,230 ZAC | TFV: 25,431 ZAC | Premium (+7.07%) *Corporate Action = Take Out Offer Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS: For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts" help clients identify trading opportunities. When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity. This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out, ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 1 Let The Candle Confirm Out of all those available, Candlestick Charts are the most widely used when it comes to analyzing price from a technical perspective. The interpretation thereof helps traders to understand the interaction between market participants and informs who is in control between buyers and sellers. Various types of candle formation convey key information about the range of outcomes for a share for example, following a downward trend, a long lower tail, doji, piercing or bullish engulfing suggests that buyers have started to become active/started to take an interest while following an upward trend, a long upper tail, doji, dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing suggests that sellers have started to become active/started to take an interest. While information is conveyed pre-market, it is the intraday price action that will confirm any trade or opportunity. While we have a plan, we are also ready to switch gears as the price action develops. TRADING TIP # 2: Failure & Reclaim FAILURE to hold a prior session high/range high may signal that the upside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to short/sell may be at hand. This is often reflected via a deteriorating candle structure which suggests that sellers are starting to take control. Examples of such candles are long upper tails, doji's, dark cloud covers, bearish engulfing candles etc. RECLAIMING a prior session low/range may signal that the downside momentum is slowing and that an opportunity to buy may be at hand. This is often reflected via a improving candle structure which suggests that buyers have started to enter and are looking to take control of the price action. Examples of such candles are long lower tails, doji's, piercing candles, bullish engulfing candles etc. TRADING TIP # 3: Take Note of the 'Igniting Bar' This is a large green or red candle which suggests that traders should: TAKE NOTE note of the change in characters and potential change of the trend. TAKE NOTE of a potential acceleration of the trend. TAKE NOTE of potentially aggressive buy or selling Often, BIG MOVES start with BIG MOVES. Core Trading Principles: Short and Medium Term Trade with the primary trend. Volume Matters. This represents the interest of large institutional investors who have the ability to move a share, both up and down. Do not short/sell a share that is above, and in close proximity to it’s rising 8 and 21-day moving averages. This trend can persist for an extended period. Ultra short term traders, if a share has advanced strongly over a 3-7 day period, book profits. You can always re-enter and do the same trade at lower levels. If a share is printing a large bullish (green) candlestick following an extended move, use the strength to sell. The likelihood that the share retraces is high. If a share is printing a large bearish (red) candlestick following an extended move to the downside, use the weakness to start a long position. The likelihood that the share rebounds is high. Trade in the direction of the 20-day moving average, using the MA as a level to enter as well as a hard break thereof as a trailing stop-loss. The 8 and 21-day moving averages often act as support and resistance levels. When they are turning down, use them as levels to sell into. The opposite applies when they are turning up. The first back-test and undercut of the 50/75-day exponential moving average range has a high probability of holding as support or resistance. Buy or sell it for a 1-3 day move to generate cash flow. Stocks above a rising 200-day moving average spend the majority of their time trending higher. The opposite applies when the 200-day is trending down. Previous support can turn into resistance and previous resistance can turn to support. Use these zones as levels to trade against. Support and resistance levels and key moving averages are ranges rather than exact levels. They often overshoot these zones before occasionally reversing at these levels. Respect the FIB (Fibonacco) retracement zones. They often act as support and resistance levels. ‘PAY-tience Pays’, however be nimble to react to opportunity to cut when a trade hasn’t been working. Above all, know your time horizon. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Target Reached at R320 + Running +11.5%. Short Term Traders Consider Taking Profits.

    This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Link to original note here > https://www.unum.capital/post/shp0308 Updated Chart Below Shoprite Holdings Our long term target for SHP is R340, discussed in June (see link > https://www.unum.capital/post/shp1906 ) Previous Post (03 August): Shoprite Holdings Re-emerging from short term downward trend. Long term, the share is trading within a multi-month consolidation which has the potential to break to the upside and where the target is around the 32000c level. The setup is temporarily invalidated on a weekly close below 27200c. Last close = 28700c READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • +1000 Points

    This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Update: JSE Top 40 Index: The index traded into the short term buy re-entry range, giving active traders an opportunity to build a position for a an intraday rebound. Previous Post (Sunday, 13 September): Trading JSE Top 40 Index: Actionable Areas + Long/Short Risks The analysis below was generated automatically, using an artificial intelligence tool (using my own inputs/data). 🟧 Base Case: ⬜ Neutral The J200 remains pinned within a choppy, directional consolidation corridor over the short term. A range-bound 14-day trend and an overarching lack of directional bias keep the index oscillating aimlessly between its defined trading boundaries. Near-term bounces toward the upper boundary of the consolidation phase meet rotational supply, while tests of lower support attract tentative dip-buyers. The index continues to digest recent weakness in a neutral holding pattern, waiting for a definitive expansion in market breadth or a high-volume range breakout before establishing a sustained directional move. Risks to Base Case: Consolidation ranges can break abruptly—either through an unexpected macro catalyst driving an aggressive breakout over range resistance or through an acceleration of short-term selling that forces a breakdown below the consolidation floor. Risks to Immediate Buy/Long Positions: The immediate short-term trend is classified as "Very Weak." Buying prematurely before price action structurally stabilizes on lower timeframes leaves long exposure exposed to ongoing downside drift and range-floor failure. Risks to Immediate Sell/Shorts Positions: Initiating short positions into the lower half of an established, range-bound channel carries poor risk-to-reward; any sudden base-building or defense of the range floor can trigger a swift mean-reversion squeeze back toward the middle of the band. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors.

  • Trade Setup: Strong Start (+4.7%)

    This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Update on Old Mutual: A strong start to the setup with a +4.7% gain by the close of trade on Tuesday. Previous Post (15 September, Pre-Market): Strategy Alert: Old Mutual - Rounding Bottom, Bearish-To-Bullish Reversal "Strategy Alerts" help clients identify potential trading opportunities. When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with a setup —such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity. This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out, ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. OMU currently matches setup #74 Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors.

  • Sanlam's Window of Opportunity: Capitalize & Get Paid

    This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. From Monday at 10h05 to Tuesday's close, Sanlam appreciated by 2.62%, with a strong session seen on Tuesday (flush below and a close at the high of the day). if you are a a short term, active trader, the setup (a mean reversion) is a useful strategy capitalize on short term dislocations. If you're reading this note, but not trading via the Unum Capital Trading Desk, why not consider making us your main trading services provider? To get started, e-mail tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (Monday, 14 September at 10h05): Strategy Alert: Sanlam - Extended To Downside vs 21-Day EMA, Potential For Mean Reversion "Strategy Alerts" help clients identify potential trading opportunities. When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with a setup —such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity. This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out, ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. SLM currently matches setups #4 and #45. Key Levels = 8016c and 7987c (Friday and today's swing low, thus far). Holding above these areas would suggest that the ultra short term selling is waning. Intraday Stop-loss = TBD Disclosure: The commentary below was generated automatically, using an artificial intelligence tool (using my own inputs/data). The overarching tactical posture aligns with 🔵 Buy on deeper pullback — Delayed/Weakest Buy, with immediate execution mapped to 🟩 At/approaching buy/add (strictly for small, tactical long exposure). The price action model explicitly flags that the short-term reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position as the 7-day trend nears oversold limits. However, given aggressive medium-term selling and persistent multi-week weakness, full-sized capital commitment should wait for lower timeframes to stabilize and validate a confirmed reclaim of prior session lows. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors.

  • Strategy Alert: Old Mutual - Rounding Bottom, Bearish-To-Bullish Reversal

    This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. "Strategy Alerts" help clients identify potential trading opportunities. When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with a setup —such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity. This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out, ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. OMU currently matches setup #74 Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors.

  • Update: Approaching Sub-3500c Bear Flag Target (Now ~3600c) + Current Technical Trend Ratings

    The update to this research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. Risk recently re-iterated (16 July) at 4785c. Yesterday's low = 3592c. WHL Before (16 July) at 4785c. WHL After (14 September) The technical trend ratings for the Monthly, Weekly & Daily time frames all currently point to deeply oversold conditions. Long time readers of our research will recall us highlighting the overextension risk when the share traded at 7789c. This note was published 3 years ago on Monday 14 August 2023. Previous Post (16 July) ⚠️Caution: Bear Flag (via weekly) Targets Sub-3500c Premium Content: Ticker available to active trading clients. Also forms part of a larger head and shoulder formation. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Exxaro Resources: Rejection vs Sell Re-Entry Range + What Else We're Seeing

    This research note is free. Please Note: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes. The buy re-entry range (blue shaded area) and sell re-entry range (red shaded area) has remained unchanged since we originally published this note in early July. First, we saw the buy range reached, with the rebound from that level being +16%. Yesterday, the sell re-entry range was reached with a rejection and bearish engulfing candle. Yesterday's (Monday 14/09) candle structure may reflect buyer exhaustion and the potential for a short term pullback and consolidation. Currently, short re-entries are in the money by around ~1000c. If you are looking to re-enter on teh buy /long side, you could wait for lower levels (let's say a pullback to the rising 21-day) - patience will be required. Previous Post (08 September): Running +12%: Take Profit on This JSE Mining Share Update on Exxaro Resources: The share trade right into the buy range, giving you an opportunity to build a position. Now +12%. If you think it can continue to rebound, then hold, however, you could also consider taking profits and redeploying the gains into other opportunities. Previous Post (09 July):💡Trade Setup: Monitoring ~R181 to ~R185 as a Buy Re-Entry Range This research note is free. Time of Note: 09h48am, Thursday 09 July 2026 Exxaro Resources (EXX) | Provisionally, ~R181 to ~R185 is a buy re-entry range. This should be both oversold and in line with the previous support. Currently R194.33. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal shaded areas on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

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