Search this site

RESEARCH INSIGHTS and IDEAS are communicated through the following forums: (1) This page, with links to all charts/notes. When this page becomes full, it will be moved to a new link. (2) The Tactical Trading Guide (Automated: The full data set is emailed is internally every evening at 7:30pm) (3) The Telegram group (4) The CMS WINNERS: Ideas & Insights That Have Contributed To Performance (Not Comprehensive) [CLICK ON THE INSTRUMENT TO VIEW THE OUTCOME] > Standard Bank | Qualcomm Inc | Kumba Iron Ore | FTSE 100 Index | BHP Group | Mr. Price Group | Discovery Ltd | JSE Top 40 Index | Brent Crude Oil | Sasol Ltd | Sanlam | EUR/USD | Richemont | Aspen Pharmacare | Momentum Metropolitan | Deutsche Bank | Spar Group | Richemont (Chart #2 - Warning) | Impala Platinum | Tiger Brands | Foschini LOSERS: Ideas & Insights That Have Detracted From Performance (Not Comprehensive) [CLICK ON THE INSTRUMENT TO VIEW THE OUTCOME] > Bid Corp | BHP Group | Sasol Ltd | GBP/JPY | Bytes Technology | DRD Gold | Outsurance | Clicks Group | Tiger Brands Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital Tuesday, 18 June 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] Price Action Talking Points | 06h30 JSE Sector Ratings | 06h30 UPDATE: JSE Top 40 Index - 1700 Point Rally | 06h30 JSE Top 20: Technical Rating + Next Best Probability Action | 06h30 NED Nedbank Group: Cash Flow On Long/Short (Steps 1 to 4) | 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide: SBK | 06h30 GFI Gold Fields: Anticipating A Near-Term Rebound | 06h30 Trade Idea Update: Upside Underway vs Original View | 06h30 🔔 Strategy Alert: Bullish Igniting Bar (MTN) | 06h30 🔔 Strategy Alert: Previous Breakout Level (MNP) | 06h30 🔔 Strategy Alert: Potential Bullish Breakout 🔼|🔒 | 06h30 Update: NPN Naspers Ltd: Pullback From Sell Range | 06h30 Premium View: SSW Sibanye Stillwater - Here's What I'm Seeing 🔒 | 06h30 Massive Upside Follow-Through: ABG Absa Group | 06h30 Massive Upside Follow-Through: DSY Discovery Holdings | 06h30 ABG Absa Medium Term View: Strong Upside Follow-Through | 06h30 Monday, 17 June 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] Brent Crude Oil: Now Higher By 9.3% | 20h29 Update: Natural Gas - In Profit By 9.5% | 17h03 Update: Natural Gas - In Profit by 8.1% | 12h06pm Nasdaq 100: Extended = Downside Risk | Pre-Market Asian Session / Sunday Friday, 14 June 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] JSE Sector Ratings | 08h49 JSE Top 10 Most Overbought/Oversold | 06h30 BHG BHP Group: Zooming Out | 06h30 🔔 Strategy Alert: FSR Firstrand | 06h30 🔔 Strategy Alert: JSE-listed 🔒 | 06h30 🔔 Strategy Alert: Potential Bullish Consolidation Breakout 🔒 | 06h30 Thursday, 13 June 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] 🔔 Strategy Alert: JSE-listed 🔒 | 15h56 CFR Richemont: Full Target Reached On Sell Idea | 12h48 🔔Strategy Alert: N91 Ninety One Plc | 08h20 🔔Strategy Alert: VOD Vodacom | 07h53 SA 10-Year Bond Yield | 07h42 S&P 500 Index (US500): Overbought, With Bearish Divergence | 07h34 JSE Top 10 Most Overbought/Oversold | 07h28 Silver (XAGUSD) | 07h21 SBK Standard Bank | 06h30 MNP Mondi Plc | 06h30 SAP Sappi | 06h30 Wednesday, 12 June 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] FX: USD/ZAR | 18h36 Trade Alert: Nat Gas | 13h26 JSE Top 40 index | 08h46 Market Neutral: +ANG/-HAR | 08h36 Market Neutral: +AMS/-IMP | 08h24 Price Action Talking Points | 06h30 Top 10 Most Oversold/Overbought | 06h30 NPN Naspers Ltd | 06h30 NPH Northam Platinum | 06h30 U.S. Interest Rate Decision: Trading The Numbers | 06h30 Tuesday, 11 June 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] S&P 500 Index | 10h14 ZW Wheat Futures - Setting Up As A Buy Re-Entry | 07h49 WHL Woolworths (+Tactical Trading Guide) | 07h43 JSE Top 40 Index | 07h28 Monday, 10 June 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] Gold (XAUUSD) | 21h12 WHL Woolworths | 19h48 SHP Shoprite | 19h21 FX: USD/ZAR - Unwind & Support Off 8-EMA | 18h38 Update: Brent Crude Oil | 18h13 Top 10 Overbought/Oversold (Weekly T/F) | 18h00 Top 10 Most Overbought/Oversold (Daily T/F) | 17h56 Trade Alert: Resources Sector 🔒| 14h15 JSE Top 40 Index | Pre-Market Asian Session / Sunday JSE Sector Ratings + Change | Pre-Market Asian Session / Sunday JSE Top 40 Index (with Tactical Trading Guide) | Pre-Market Asian Session / Sunday JSE Top 20 Technical Trend Ratings | Pre-Market Asian Session / Sunday ANG Anglogold Ashanti | Pre-Market Asian Session / Sunday Strategy Screen: ANG / ARI / DRD | Pre-Market Asian Session / Sunday OMU Old Mutual: Trading Plan / Provisional Buy Range | Pre-Market Asian Session / Sunday FX: EUR/USD - 2x Opportunities. Both Profitable | Pre-Market Asian Session / Sunday Tactical Trading Guide NASPERS | SASOL | SIBANYE | SHOPRITE | STANDARD BANK / Sunday Trading Candidate: Continuation Buy 🔒| Pre-Market Asian Session / Sunday Platinum (XPTUSD) | Pre-Market Asian Session / Sunday Gold (XAUUSD): Profitable | Pre-Market Asian Session / Sunday This Week's One Big Event: US Inflation & FOMC Decision On Wednesday. Affected Instruments: EUR/USD, S&P 500, Gold. Friday, 07 June 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] HAR Harmony Gold | 20h08 Trade Idea: Industrial Sector🔒| 14h00 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls: Trading The Numbers | 07h20 Strategy Screen: MTM Momentum Metropolitan | 06h34 Strategy Screen: RNI Reinet Investments | 06h26 Thursday, 06 June 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] FX: USD/ZAR | 22h43 Strategy Screen: OMU, NPH | 21h42 JSE Top 10 Most Overbought/Oversold | 18h29 S&P 500 Index (US500) | 15h22 JSE Sector Ratings | 15h11 Update: Bid Corp | 14h42 Update: NED Nedbank | 11h56 FSR Firstrand: Trading Range | 07h18 FX: USD/ZAR | 06H28 CFR Richemont: Reduce/Sell | 06h18 JSE Top 10 Most Overbought/Oversold | 05h22 Wednesday, 05 June 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] WATCHLIST ADDITION: WHL WOOLWORTHS | 18h20 WATHCLIST ADDITION: MTN GROUP | 18h09 KIO KUMBA IRON ORE - Trading Plan | 18h04 JSE Top 40 Index | 14h53 FX Trade Alert: Intraday/Ultra Short Term 🔒 | 11h54 XPTUSD Platinum | 11h24 Strategy Screens: Trading Candidates | 07h00 USD/ZAR | 06H33 Top 10 Most Overbought/Oversold | 06h22 SSW - Sibanye Stillwater | 05h58 Tuesday, 04 June 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] Spot Gold (XAUUSD) | 20h49 FX: USD/ZAR - Continuation Re-Test of 8/21-EMA Range | 20h46 FX: USD/JPY - Next bets Buying/Selling Level | 17h42 Silver: Sharp Bearish Reversal Following Last Week's Rally | 16h58 Update: Copper has pulled back significantly - Now 4.55 | 14h04 Silver - Breached The 8-EMA, Sell Rallies (Negative) | 10h40 GBP/JPY - Unwinding > Sell | 10h01 Strategy Screen: USD/ZAR | 09h42 USD/ZAR | 08H48 Strategy Screen: CFR | 08h32 Strategy Screen: AMS, SAP | 08h31 Dow Jones (US30) | 08h27 JSE Top 40 Index | 06h30 Monday, 03 June 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] Gold (XAUUSD) 19H52 Nasdaq 100 19H47 EUR/USD | 17H59 Brent Crude Oil | 17h37 Strategy Screen: Piercing Candle Candidates | 08h14 Active Trading Plan: Full Report (23-Page PDF)🔒| Pre-Market Asian Session / Sunday Friday, 31 May 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] MY WATCHLIST: Buy Candidate 🔒| 07h01 JSE Technical Summary | 06h30 JSE Top 40 Index | 06h30 SHP Shoprite: Target Reached - Bank / Take Profit | 06h30 Thursday, 30 May 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] US 100 (Nasdaq) | 21h11 Gold (XAUUSD) | 15h08 FX: EUR/USD | 15H00 Price Action Talking Points | 06h30 JSE Top 20 Technical Trend Rating + 'Next Best' Probability Action | 06h30 Trading Candidates (Strategy Screens) | 06h30 US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) | 23h26 / Wednesday 29 May FX: USD/ZAR | 16H36 / Wednesday 29 May Tuesday, 28 May 2024 Update: CPI Capitec Bank 🔒| 06h30 JSE Top 40 Index 🔒| 06h30 JSE Technical Summary 🔒| 06h30 Technical Note: CLS Clicks 🔒| 06h30 Monday, 27 May 2024 Trade Idea: Resources Sector 🔒| 12h40 Talking Points 🔒| Pre-Market Asia / Sunday Best Ideas: Leading Candidates 🔒| Pre-Market Asia / Sunday JSE Top 40 Index 🔒| Pre-Market Asia / Sunday JSE Technical Summary 🔒| Pre-Market Asia / Sunday JSE Sector Ratings 🔒| Pre-Market Asia / Sunday Friday, 24 May 2024 Trade Idea: Retail Sector 🔒| 15h00 Best Ideas: High Level View 🔒| 10h40pm / As Of Thursday Evening Technical Note: SHP Shoprite Holdings 🔒| 06h30 Technical Note: PPH Pepkor Holdings 🔒| 06h30 Thursday, 23 May 2024 SA 10-Year Bond Yield 🔒| 12h14 Trade Idea: Financial Sector 🔒| 08h28 High Level Views: Large Caps, Indices, FX & Commodities 🔒| 06h30 JSE Top 20: Technical Trend Rating + Nearest Action 🔒| 06h30 My Watchlist: Two (2) Tickers At or Very To Execution 🔒| 06h30 Wednesday, 22 May 2024 Trade Idea: Large Cap (Medical/Healthcare) 🔒| 06h30 Trade Idea: Large Cap (Industrial) 🔒| 06h30 Technical Summary: JSE Mid & Large Caps 🔒| 06h30 JSE Top 20: Technical Trend Rating + Nearest Action 🔒| 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide: Share Commentary For 90 JSE Shares 🔒| 06h30 High Level Views: Large Caps, Indices, FX & Commodities 🔒| 06h30 Tuesday, 21 May 2024 Trade Idea: Currency Market🔒| 15h03 Trade Idea: Top 40 Constituent (Financial Sector)🔒| 10h30 Active Trading Plan (7-Page PDF). Reading Time: 2 Minutes🔒| 06h30 Monday, 20 May 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] Trade Idea: Top 40 Constituent (Resources Sector) 🔒| 06h30 Trade Idea: Top 40 Constituent (Industrials Sector)🔒| 06h30 Trade Idea: Index 🔒| 06h30 UPDATE: ABG Absa: Strong Bullish Reversal | 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide 🔒| 06h30 Active Trading Plan (12-Page PDF). Reading Time: 2 Minutes🔒| Pre-Market Asia / Sunday Friday, 17 May 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] JSE Technical Summary | 06h30 NPN Naspers | 06h30 BHG Group | 06h30 Top 40 Share (Continuation Buy Idea) 🔒| 06h30 Where Buyers & Seller Have Been Most Dominant | 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide | 06h30 Thursday, 16 May 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] NPH Northam Platinum | 15h21 JSE Top 40 Index | 08h44 JSE Technical Summary | 06h30 Where Buyers & Seller Have Been Most Dominant | 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide | 06h30 US 500 INDEX | 00H00 Pre-Market Asian Session Wednesday, 15 May 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] FX: EUR/USD - Technical Chart View + reading via Tactical Trading Guide 🔒| 15h40 MACRO: High Level Views [Technical Trend Rating + Nearest Action] 🔒| 13h47 Update: Copper Futures | 13h47 Update: IMP Now +25% On Buy Re-Entry | 09h03 Update on Monday's Flash Comment 🔒| 07h54 JSE Top 20: Technical Trend Ratings 🔒| 06h30 JSE Technical Summary + Where Buyers & Seller Have Been Most Dominant 🔒| 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide | 06h30 Tuesday, 14 May 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] My Watchlist: Discussing A Potential Short/Sell Idea 🔒| 08h48 MEDIA COMMENT: Bloomberg Terminal JSE Top 20: Technical Trend Ratings | 06h30 JSE Technical Summary + Where Buyers & Seller Have Been Most Dominant | 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide | 06h30 Monday, 13 May 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] UPDATE: MACRO [INDICES, FX & COMMODITIES] | 15h53 JSE Top 40 Index | 14h19 Ratings: Macro + JSE Top 20 | Pre-Market Asian Session / Sunday JSE Technical Summary + Where Buyers & Seller Have Been Most Dominant | Sunday JSE Sector Ratings | Pre-Market Asian Session / Sunday Tactical Trading Guide | Pre-Market Asian Session / Sunday Update: Platinum (XPTUSD) | Pre-Market Asian Session / Sunday Trade Ideas/Candidates via Strategy Screens 🔒| Pre-Market Asian Session / Sunday Friday, 10 May 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] Update: SPP Spar Group - Strong Run | 13h26 US500 / S&P 500 Index | 08h41 JSE Technical Summary + Where Buyers & Seller Have Been Most Dominant | 06h30 JSE Sector Ratings | 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide | 06h30 Thursday, 09 May 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] ARI Full Target Reached At R210 | 18h13 Signals From The Tactical Trading Guide: Northam Platinum As An Example | 07h55 Major FX, Indices & Commodities: High Level Views for Active Traders 🔒| 06h40 Price Action Talking Points | 06h35 JSE Top 20 Technical Trend Ratings 🔒| 06h30 JSE Technical Summary + Where Buyers & Seller Have Been Most Dominant 🔒| 06h30 JSE Sector Ratings Change 🔒| 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide 🔒| 06h30 Wednesday, 08 May 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] Offshore Trade Idea: Sell/Short 🔒| 21h00 Nasdaq 100: Strong Rebound + Ratings Shift | 12h34 Trade Ideas: Strategy Screens 🔒| 06h30 JSE Top 20 Technical Trend Ratings 🔒| 06h30 High Level Views: JSE Top 20 🔒| 06h30 JSE Technical Summary + Where Buyers & Seller Have Been Most Dominant 🔒| 06h30 JSE Sector Ratings Change 🔒| 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide 🔒| 06h30 Tuesday, 07 May 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] Major FX, Indices & Commodities: High Level Views for Active Traders 🔒| 14h57 JSE Top 40 Index 🔒| 10h23 Talking Points: Price Action [Reading Time: 90 Seconds] 🔒| 06h30 JSE Top 20 Technical Trend Ratings 🔒| 06h30 High Level Views: JSE Top 20 🔒| 06h30 JSE Technical Summary + Where Buyers & Seller Have Been Most Dominant 🔒| 06h30 JSE Sector Ratings Change 🔒| 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide 🔒| 06h30 Monday, 06 May 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] Trade Ideas: Strategy Screens | 15h11 Talking Points: Price Action [Reading Time: 90 Seconds] | Pre-Market Asian Session / Sunday UPDATE: S&P 500: +120 POINT RALLY | Pre-Market Asian Session / Sunday High Level Views: Indices | Commodities | FX | Pre-Market Asian Session / Sunday JSE Sector Ratings Change | 06h30 High Level Views: JSE Top 20 | 06h30 JSE Technical Summary + Where Buyers & Seller Have Been Most Dominant | 06h30 UPDATE: HAR Harmony Gold Is Unwinding vs Previous Sell View | 06h30 TRADE SETUPS: Strategy Screens | 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide: Top 90 Shares By Market Cap | 06h30 Friday, 03 May 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] How I'm Looking At Aspen Pharmacare (APN) Notes On Chart | 06h30 High Level Views: JSE Top 20 | 06h30 JSE SECTORS: CHANGE IN RATINGS | 06h30 JSE Technical Summary + Where Buyers & Seller Have Been Most Dominant | 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide: Top 90 Shares By Market Cap | 06h30 Thursday, 02 May 2024 [click on the text below to access each research item] XAUUSD (GOLD) | 12h42 JSE TOP 40 INDEX | 06h30 JSE SECTORS: CHANGE IN RATINGS | 06h30 JSE Technical Summary + Where Buyers & Seller Have Been Most Dominant | 06h30 TRADE IDEAS: My Watchlist | 06h30 TRADE SETUPS: Strategy Screens | 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide: Top 90 Shares By Market Cap | 06h30 XAGUSD (SILVER) | 19h17 (Wed, 01 May) US30 Index (Dow Jones) | 16h58 (Wed, 01 May)

Last week, we saw an impressive rally in SA Inc. stocks, particularly among banks, driven by the business-friendly coalition GNU agreement that strengthened the rand. This boost has been positive for banks and retailers, which benefit from a stronger currency. In the coming weeks, we expect clarity on policies, potentially sustaining this momentum. We maintain our bullish perspective on this sector. Will this rally continue? Top 5 banks – Equally weighted. What are your thoughts on SA Inc. post GNU agreement? Join the conversation by participating in the poll on our social media platforms. We look forward to hearing from you! 1.      Will continue to rally. 2.      The upward momentum has already been priced in. 3.      We will see a pullback this week. As always, Unum Trade is here as your Profit Partner to help you navigate as we ride out the week together.

By Taahir Joosub, CFA and Award Winning Portfolio Manager. As a South African investor seeking to comply with Shariah law, you may find limited attractive passive profit opportunities. The Sukuk market options for retail investors are virtually non-existent, and the equity market options tend to be concentrated in cyclical sectors such as resources. However, there's an innovative and Shariah-compliant investment opportunity that might just be the perfect fit for your portfolio—investing in agriculture through Unum Capital's An-Aam Fund. Embracing Halal Tangible Assets Shariah investing in agriculture, specifically cattle, is an investment strategy that adheres to the principles of Islamic law. This means the investment must be in a halal asset and free from Riba (interest). Cattle are considered a halal asset as they are living, productive animals that provide food, milk, and other products. They are also relatively easy to sell and can serve as a good hedge against inflation. Investing in tangible assets like cattle offers a compelling way to diversify your portfolio and generate passive income. This was particularly evident during the COVID-19 pandemic, a period marked by extreme volatility in financial markets globally. Unlike traditional financial assets, cattle and other agricultural investments provided stability and consistent returns. Owning the Cows that Produce the Income One effective method to invest in cattle in a Shariah-compliant manner is to purchase a share of a cattle herd. Unum Capital's An-Aam Fund facilitates this unique investment opportunity by partnering with the best professionals in the industry, ensuring that your investment is managed with expertise and care. Here are some key benefits of the An-Aam Fund: Low Minimum Investment: Start with as little as R10,000. Great Liquidity: Enjoy a 30-day withdrawal notice period, providing flexibility and access to your funds. Attractive Returns: Benefit from returns that exceed inflation rates. Performance Monitoring: Utilise our online platform to monitor your investment performance every week. A Thoughtful and Compliant Investment Approach Choosing the right Shariah-compliant investment option depends on your circumstances and investment goals. It's crucial to conduct thorough research and understand the associated risks before making any investment decisions. Unum Capital's An-Aam Fund is designed to offer a balanced, ethical, and profitable investment solution tailored to meet the needs of South African investors seeking Shariah-compliant opportunities. In a world where traditional investment avenues may not always align with your values and financial goals, exploring innovative alternatives like agricultural investments can be both rewarding and fulfilling. By investing in cattle through the An-Aam Fund, you are not only adhering to Shariah principles but also contributing to a sustainable and ethical investment landscape. For more information and to start your journey towards a Shariah-compliant investment, contact our Client Support Team at clientsupport@unum.co.za and the fund’s portfolio manager Taahir Joosub, Taahir@unum.co.za and discover how the An-Aam Fund can work for you.

Developments in the US labor market and the broader US economy is one of the key data points which the U.S Federal Reserve considers in it's decision to either hold, cut or raise interest rates. For example, a buoyant labor market is associate with a strong economy, which has the ability to place upward pressure on inflation and in turn, requires higher interest rates. This economic scenario is a positive for those looking for a higher US Dollar which will benefit from higher interest rates and possibly higher interest rate differentials. Conversely, a weak labor market is associate with a slowing economy, which has the ability to place downward pressure on inflation and in turn, leaves room for the lower interest rates. This economic scenario is a positive for those looking for a lower US Dollar which becomes a casualty of lower interest rates and possibly lower interest rate differentials. For example, versus the European Union. The data point, U.S Non-farm Payrolls will be released at 2:30pm today. It is highly anticipated and is closely monitored by market participants from every corner of the globe. The reaction to the release creates volatility around selected instruments, however this also creates opportunities to trade and potentially derive at a profit. Today, the consensus is for the U.S. economy to have added 185,000 jobs for the month of May. Missing these expectations is likely to place pressure on the USD while print above this figure could support buying activity in the USD. Among others, here are three instruments by which traders can participant in and potentially profit from as the market positions and reacts to the release. Shown, are the 30-minute charts, with key support and resistance levels. 1. FX: EUR/USD 2. Spot Gold XAUUSD 3. FX: USD/ZAR To trade, or open a new account, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-Mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011 384 2923 Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

By Lester Davids, Analyst. Wednesday, 12 June 2024 For traders looking to potentially profit, high-impact economic events come with both risks and rewards. Take last week Friday's U.S. payroll data which vastly exceeded consensus expectations. At a print of 272,000 (vs the expected 185,000), the market's positioning caused a massive intraday unwind, with the US Dollar finding a bid, the Euro being sold off and Gold coming under pressure on the back of a sharp rise in bond yields. In the lead up to the event, Unum Capital clients were well prepared to capitalize on the potential volatility. Gold - 2x Opportunities To Profit The plan, set out on last week Monday, was to sell on a rally into $2363/2375 and/or buy on a print into $2288/2276. On Thursday, the commodity traded into the sell range, with the data release bringing out a wave of selling pressure that helped to move those who took a short view, well into profit. By Friday's close, the gold had traded into the buy zone and by Monday and Tuesday, the gold had recovered off Friday's lows. Inflation Data + U.S. Federal Reserve: Interest Rate Decision The outsized jobs number was indicative of a robust labour market and to a large extent, may be discounting a view that an interest rate cut is off the cards for today's decision. While we could see rate remain on hold, it will be the press conference as well as the economic projections that will be the main driver of asset prices subsequent to the release. Before tonight's decision at 8pm, U.S. inflation data can also be expected (2:30pm, South African Time). Similar to last week's payrolls data, it is bond yields that would offer the first real clues of the market's interpretation, while the USD is likely to be affected. In addition, precious metals such as Gold and Silver may display an increase in volatility amidst the market's positioning following the release. To gain access on how the Unum Capital Trading Desk could look to capitalize, get in touch today. To trade, or open a new account, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk: E-Mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011 384 2923

Introduction When it comes to investing in shares, it's crucial to be armed with the right tools and knowledge to make informed decisions. One of the most important metrics that investors use to assess the risk and return potential of equities is beta. Beta is a numerical value that measures the sensitivity of a share's price movements relative to changes in the broader market. We will delve into the concept of beta and explore its significance for share investors. What is Beta? Beta, often denoted as "β," is a statistical measure used in finance to quantify the volatility or systematic risk of a share compared to the overall market. The market, in this context, is typically represented by an index, such as the Top 40 index. The beta value indicates how much a share's price is expected to move concerning the market's movements. It helps investors understand how closely the share's performance is tied to the market's fluctuations. Interpreting Beta Values β = 1: If a share has a beta of 1, it moves in perfect correlation with the market. Its price tends to rise or fall by the same percentage as the market index. Such shares are considered market-neutral in terms of volatility. β < 1: A share with a beta below 1 is less volatile than the market. In other words, it is expected to have smaller price swings than the overall market. These shares are often referred to as defensive equities and are perceived to offer a more stable investment option. β > 1: A share with a beta above 1 is more volatile than the market. It tends to experience larger price movements, both upward and downward, compared to the market index. These shares are considered aggressive or growth-oriented investments. Risk and Return Relationship Beta plays a crucial role in determining the risk and return profile of a share. Typically, higher beta shares offer the potential for greater returns but also come with higher risk. Conversely, lower beta shares may have more modest returns but tend to be less risky and more stable during market downturns. For example, if Share A has a beta of 1.5, and the market (represented by an index) increases by 10%, Share A might be expected to rise by 15% (1.5 times the market return). Conversely, if the market falls by 10%, Share A could be anticipated to decline by 15%. How to Use Beta in Investment Decisions Diversification: Beta can help investors build a diversified portfolio. By combining shares with different beta values, investors can offset the risk of high-beta shares with the stability of low-beta shares. Risk Management: Beta assists in assessing the level of risk an investor is willing to undertake. Conservative investors might opt for low-beta shares, while those seeking higher returns might favour high-beta shares. Market Timing: Understanding beta can help investors make better decisions about when to buy or sell a share. During a bullish market, high-beta shares may outperform, while during a bearish market, low-beta shares may hold up better. Limitations of Beta While beta is a valuable metric, it does have some limitations: Historical Data: Beta is based on historical price movements, and the past may not necessarily predict future performance accurately. Market Conditions: Beta assumes that market conditions will remain constant, which is often not the case. Single-factor Metric: Beta considers only market-related risk and does not account for other factors like company-specific events or changes in industry dynamics. Conclusion Beta is a useful tool for investors to gauge the volatility and risk associated with a particular share relative to the overall market. It aids in constructing a well-balanced portfolio and managing risk according to individual investment goals and risk tolerance. However, beta should not be the sole factor in investment decisions, as it's essential to consider other aspects of a company's fundamentals and the broader economic environment to make well-informed investment choices. As with any investment analysis, it's prudent to conduct thorough research. Top 40 share beta and selected markets: The chart below highlights the top 10 and bottom 10 changes in betting trends for the selected markets, providing a comprehensive overview of the most significant shifts. Download the Excel file here:

Introduction: Relative Price Strength (RPS) is a critical technical indicator used by traders and investors to assess the performance of an equity relative to the broader market or its industry peers. By understanding RPS and incorporating it into their investment strategies, individuals can gain valuable insights into an equity's potential for future price movement. We will delve into the concept of RPS, how it is calculated, and its significance in share trading. What is Relative Price Strength (RPS)? Relative Price Strength, also known as Relative Strength, is a momentum-based metric that evaluates an equity's performance relative to a benchmark index or a group of peers. It is used to identify equities that have outperformed or underperformed in their market or sector over a specified period. RPS Calculation: To calculate RPS, we compare the price performance of a particular share to the performance of a designated benchmark index or a group of shares. The RPS calculation typically involves comparing the price change over a specific time frame, depending on the preference of the trader or investor. The formula for calculating RPS is as follows: RPS = (Share's Price at date x / Share's Price at date y) / (Benchmark's Price at date x / Benchmark's Price at date y) date x = most recent price of the share or benchmark date y = price of the share or benchmark x periods ago Understanding RPS Values: The RPS value is represented as a ratio, and it indicates the stock's relative strength compared to the benchmark or peer group. A value above 1 suggests that the share has outperformed the benchmark or peers, while a value below 1 indicates underperformance. Significance of RPS in Share Trading: Identifying Strong Performers: RPS helps traders and investors identify shares that have demonstrated significant price strength compared to the overall market or their sector. These shares are often considered strong performers and may continue to exhibit positive price movement. Trend Confirmation: RPS can help confirm the prevailing trends in the market or sector. Shares with high RPS values are more likely to be in uptrends, while those with low RPS values might be in downtrends. Share Selection: Traders can use RPS to filter and prioritise their share selection process. A higher RPS value could make a share more appealing for trading or investment opportunities. Divergence Detection: RPS can also help identify potential divergences between a share and the broader market or sector. Divergences occur when an equity's price moves in the opposite direction to its RPS, which might signal a potential trend reversal or correction. Limitations of RPS: While RPS can be a valuable tool for assessing relative performance, it has some limitations that traders and investors should be aware of: Short-Term Focus: RPS is primarily a short to medium-term indicator. It might not accurately reflect a share's long-term potential or fundamental strength. Benchmark Selection: The choice of benchmark or peer group can significantly impact the RPS calculation. Different benchmarks can lead to different RPS values for the same share. Conclusion: Relative Price Strength (RPS) is a valuable technical indicator that provides insights into an equity's relative performance compared to a benchmark index or its peers. By understanding RPS, traders and investors can make more informed decisions, identify strong performers, and validate existing trends in the market or sector. However, like any single metric, RPS should be used in conjunction with other indicators and fundamental analysis to make well-rounded investment decisions. JSE All Share headline indices RPS: In the financial markets, certain headline indices have showcased remarkable outperformance, suggesting a notable influx of capital. This surge in capital inflow signals growing trader and investor confidence and interest in these headline indices. Whereas traders and investors seem to be reallocating their investments away from headline indices where there is an outflow of capital. Capital Inflow headline indices (in ranking order): 1. Industrials Capital outflow headline indices (in ranking order): 1. Financials 2. Resources JSE All Share share RPS: Understanding the performance of individual shares in comparison to the broader market is crucial for traders and investors seeking to capitalise on market trends. The table below highlights the top 20 and bottom 20 shares based on RPS, with a lookback period of the last 10 days, indicated by their ranking changes since the previous update. The table is updated daily. The Top 20 RPS Leaders: These are the shares that have exhibited the strongest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index over the past 10 days. The Bottom 20 RPS Laggards: These shares have shown the weakest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index over the same 10-day period. JSE All Share sector RPS: In this analysis, we will examine the top 10 and bottom 10 sectors based on RPS, considering the lookback period of the last 10 days. The table is also updated daily. The Top 10 RPS Leading Sectors These sectors have demonstrated the strongest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index during the 10-day lookback period. The Bottom 10 RPS Lagging Sectors Conversely, these sectors have exhibited the weakest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index over the same 10-day period.

What is a Heatmap? A heatmap is a graphical representation of data where individual shares are represented as colours. In this context, the heatmap below shows the top 60 JSE (Johannesburg Stock Exchange) shares by value traded and their percentage daily change. Share Tickers: Each block or cell in the heatmap is labelled with a ticker symbol, representing a particular share on the JSE. For example, "IMP" or "NPN" are tickers for specific companies listed on the JSE. Axes: The x-axis depicts the "Percentage Change", spanning from negative to positive values. It reflects the day-to-day fluctuations in a share's price, with positive values signifying an uptick in share price value and negative ones denoting a decline. Block size: The size of each block signifies the "Value Traded" for a particular share in a day. "Value Traded" denotes the total monetary amount of a specific share exchanged on the equity market within a given day. It is determined by multiplying the volume of shares traded with their average trading price for that day. Formula: Value Traded = Number of Shares Traded × Average Trading Price of the Share This metric is pivotal as it sheds light on the liquidity and activity surrounding a specific share. A higher value traded typically signifies increased interest and engagement with that share for a multitude of reasons. Conversely, a lower value traded might suggest diminished interest or activity in that particular share. How to Use the Heatmap: When analysing equity markets, both the "value traded" and the direction of the share price movement (percentage change) can provide critical insights into the sentiment and behaviour of traders and investors. High Trading Volume with Rising Share Price (larger block sizes and darker shading of green): Interpretation: This typically indicates a strong buying interest in the share. A higher volume of shares being traded, combined with an upward movement in price, suggests that the demand for the share is outstripping supply. This can be due to positive news about the company, better-than-expected earnings reports, or any other factor that boosts traders' and investors' confidence in the share's future performance. Possible Implications: The share may be in a bullish phase. This scenario might attract more market participants who want to capitalise on the upward trend, further pushing the price up, at least in the short term. However, traders and investors need to be cautious about potential overvaluations. High Trading Volume with Declining Share Price (larger block sizes and darker shading of red): Interpretation: This indicates strong selling pressure. Even though a large volume of shares is being traded, the fact that the price is declining suggests that there is more supply than demand for the share. Reasons can include negative news about the company, disappointing earnings reports, or broader negative market or sector trends. Possible Implications: The share might be in a bearish phase, signalling a potential downtrend. This can cause panic selling among market participants, which might further depress the share price. On the other hand, some market participants might see this as an opportunity to buy the share at a discounted price, anticipating a future rebound. High Trading Volume with Minimal Price Fluctuation (larger block sizes with a beige shading): Interpretation: When there is a large value traded with minimal share price movement, it suggests that there is equilibrium between buyers and sellers: A high trading volume with little change in price indicates that there is a balance between buying and selling pressure. For every trader or investor eager to sell, there is someone equally willing to buy at nearly the same price. Possible Implications: The share could be in a consolidation phase, where it is finding a stable price range after a period of significant upward or downward movement. This phase can often precede a breakout in either direction, depending on subsequent news or market sentiment. The share might be trading near a strong support (a price level where a share tends to find buying interest) or resistance level (a price level where selling interest tends to surface). Even with high trading volumes, the share might struggle to break these levels, leading to minimal price movement. Low Trading Volume with Significant Price Swing (Either Direction) (small block sizes with either a darker shading of green or red): Interpretation: When there is a small value traded combined with significant share price movement either upwards or downwards, the share might not be highly liquid, meaning there are not many shares available for trading. In such cases, even small buy or sell orders can cause disproportionate price movements. Possible Implications: Shares that are thinly traded or have low trading volumes can be more volatile, leading to larger price swings with fewer shares being exchanged. The share might be highly sensitive to specific news or events. Even if only a few traders and investors react to the news, it can cause a significant price movement due to the low volume of trades. Low Trading Volume with Minimal Price Fluctuations (small block sizes with a beige shading): Interpretation: There might be a general consensus about the share's value among the few participants, leading to little price movement. In the absence of any significant news or events related to the company or its industry, traders and investors might have no strong incentive to buy or sell, resulting in low trading volume and stable prices. Possible Implications: Market participants could be on the sidelines, waiting for a clear indication or event that might dictate the share's future direction. Until such an event occurs, there may be limited trading activity and minimal price change. The nearly unchanged price with low volume might indicate that the market is indecisive about that particular share at the moment, with no strong bullish or bearish sentiment driving it. Conclusion: When the bulk of the blocks are sizable and green, it signifies a largely upbeat market day, underscored by heightened trading activity. These shares could be potential candidates for a long position. On the other hand, if a majority of blocks are red and indicate robust trading, the market seems to have tilted towards a negative trend, suggesting possible short-sell opportunities. For shares represented by beige blocks, whether large or small, it might be prudent to exercise caution or steer clear In all the scenarios presented, it is crucial to consider other market indicators and conduct a comprehensive analysis before making investment decisions. External factors, such as macroeconomic conditions, industry trends, and geopolitical events, can also influence share price movements and trading volumes.

What is a Heatmap? This heatmap displays value trader data regarding the top 60 JSE (Johannesburg Stock Exchange) shares. It depicts how their last value traded compares to their average daily value traded over the last 20 days. Share Tickers: Each block or cell in the heatmap is labelled with a ticker symbol, representing a particular share on the JSE. For example, "IMP" or "NPN" are tickers for specific companies listed o the JSE. Axes: The x-axis represents the "Percentage of Average Value Traded", ranging from zero to positive percentages. It illustrates the daily variations in a share's trading volume (value traded), where increased positive values indicate an increase in the value of shares traded. Block size: The size of each block signifies the "Value Traded" for a particular share in a day, compared to its 20-day value traded, expressed as a percentage. The greater the block size, the more significant the increase in value traded. Furthermore, blocks with a reddish hue indicate that the value traded is associated with a volume spike. In essence, a volume spike refers to a sudden and notable increase in the number of shares traded in a short period, often signalling heightened traders and investor interest or activity in that particular share. "Value Traded" denotes the total monetary amount of a specific share exchanged on the equity market within a given day. It is determined by multiplying the volume of shares traded with their average trading price for that day. Formula: Value Traded = Number of Shares Traded × Average Trading Price of the Share Average Value Traded Per Share, is the average of the daily traded values for the last 20 trading sessions. It provides a more stable measure to compare against a single day's value traded. Formula: Percentage of average value traded = Value traded for one day ÷ 20-Day Average Value Traded How to Use the Heatmap: The presence of various colors from blue to red suggests that there's a diverse trading behavior among the top 60 JSE shares. Some share are experiencing a surge in trading activity, while others are seeing less than usual. The shares in the red zone might be experiencing significant events, news, or developments leading to heightened trader and investor interest, resulting in higher trading volumes. Conversely, the shares in the blue zone could be in a consolidation phase, or there might not be any significant news driving the share, leading to decreased interest and trading activity. Interpretation Liquidity Indicator A higher average traded value suggests that the share is more liquid, meaning it can be bought or sold in larger quantities without causing significant price movements. This can be beneficial for large institutional investors who need to make big trades without impacting the price too much. Trader and Investor Interest A sudden spike in the daily value traded compared to the 20-day average can indicate heightened trader and investor interest, either due to recent news, earnings announcements, or other market events. Value Traded Per Day > 20-Day Average (large red blocks): When the value traded on a particular day is significantly higher than the 20-day average, it could signify increased buying/selling activity. This could be due to recent positive/negative news, earnings beats/misses, or sector-specific developments. Such spikes warrant further investigation into why traders and investors are showing increased interest. Value Traded Per Day < 20-Day Average (large blue blocks): If the value traded on a particular day is much lower than the 20-day average, it might indicate decreased interest or a potential consolidation phase. In such cases, traders and investors might be in a "wait and watch" mode, or there might not be any significant news driving the share. Consistency (small red and blue blocks) If the daily traded value remains consistently close to the 20-day average, it suggests stability in the share's trading patterns. However, small red blocks signify that traded values for these shares are also higher than their respective averages. Conclusion This heatmap provides a visual snapshot of the trading activity of the top 60 JSE shares relative to their average daily values. Traders and investors can use such visualisations to quickly identify shares with abnormal trading volumes, which might warrant further investigation or present potential trading opportunities. In all the scenarios presented, it is crucial to consider other market indicators and conduct a comprehensive analysis before making investment decisions. External factors, such as macroeconomic conditions, industry trends, and geopolitical events, can also influence share price movements and trading volumes.

Introduction: This graph is a scatter plot presenting volume analysis for the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The horizontal axis (x-axis) represents the "Volume multiple of the last 200 trading days", indicating how much the volume of the day’s trading compares to the average of the last 200 days. A value of 1 would mean the volume is equal to the 200-day average, values greater than 1 mean more than average volume, and values less than 1 mean less than average volume. The vertical axis (y-axis) shows the "Percentage daily change", which represents the percentage change in the share price compared to the previous day. Positive values indicate an increase in share price, while negative values indicate a decrease. The points on the graph are labelled with ticker symbols representing different companies. Points above the horizontal axis represent shares that have increased in price, and points below it represent shares that have decreased in price. Similarly, points to the right of the vertical axis represent shares with higher trading volumes than the average, and points to the left represent shares with lower-than-average trading volumes. Interpretation: Shares in the upper right quadrant (green dots) could be considered strong performers as they are experiencing both a high volume of trading and an increase in price. This could indicate positive investor sentiment and possibly a good buying opportunity if the momentum is expected to continue. Shares in the lower right quadrant (red dots) might be experiencing a high volume of trades but are decreasing in price. This could signal a selling pressure or negative sentiment, and investors might want to investigate further before making a decision, as they could represent either a potential for buying at a lower price (if the fundamentals are solid) or a risk if the price continues to decline. Shares in the lower left quadrant (red dots) are seeing both lower volumes and a decrease in price, which could be a sign of weak investor interest or a negative outlook, suggesting caution. Shares in the upper left quadrant (green dots) are experiencing an increase in price despite trading at lower volumes, which could indicate undervalued opportunities but also might suggest lower confidence among investors, thus these would require careful analysis. Before making any investment decisions, it is important to consider other factors beyond just the volume and price change. These can include fundamental analysis of the company's financial health, news, industry trends, and overall market conditions. Additionally, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Always conduct thorough research.

The market overview serves as a comprehensive snapshot of the financial markets, providing a summary of various asset classes, sectors, and indices. Its primary purpose is to showcase the performance of different financial instruments over a specific period.

Introduction When it comes to investing in shares, it's crucial to be armed with the right tools and knowledge to make informed decisions. One of the most important metrics that investors use to assess the risk and return potential of equities is beta. Beta is a numerical value that measures the sensitivity of a share's price movements relative to changes in the broader market. We will delve into the concept of beta and explore its significance for share investors. What is Beta? Beta, often denoted as "β," is a statistical measure used in finance to quantify the volatility or systematic risk of a share compared to the overall market. The market, in this context, is typically represented by an index, such as the Top 40 index. The beta value indicates how much a share's price is expected to move concerning the market's movements. It helps investors understand how closely the share's performance is tied to the market's fluctuations. Interpreting Beta Values β = 1: If a share has a beta of 1, it moves in perfect correlation with the market. Its price tends to rise or fall by the same percentage as the market index. Such shares are considered market-neutral in terms of volatility. β < 1: A share with a beta below 1 is less volatile than the market. In other words, it is expected to have smaller price swings than the overall market. These shares are often referred to as defensive equities and are perceived to offer a more stable investment option. β > 1: A share with a beta above 1 is more volatile than the market. It tends to experience larger price movements, both upward and downward, compared to the market index. These shares are considered aggressive or growth-oriented investments. Risk and Return Relationship Beta plays a crucial role in determining the risk and return profile of a share. Typically, higher beta shares offer the potential for greater returns but also come with higher risk. Conversely, lower beta shares may have more modest returns but tend to be less risky and more stable during market downturns. For example, if Share A has a beta of 1.5, and the market (represented by an index) increases by 10%, Share A might be expected to rise by 15% (1.5 times the market return). Conversely, if the market falls by 10%, Share A could be anticipated to decline by 15%. How to Use Beta in Investment Decisions Diversification: Beta can help investors build a diversified portfolio. By combining shares with different beta values, investors can offset the risk of high-beta shares with the stability of low-beta shares. Risk Management: Beta assists in assessing the level of risk an investor is willing to undertake. Conservative investors might opt for low-beta shares, while those seeking higher returns might favour high-beta shares. Market Timing: Understanding beta can help investors make better decisions about when to buy or sell a share. During a bullish market, high-beta shares may outperform, while during a bearish market, low-beta shares may hold up better. Limitations of Beta While beta is a valuable metric, it does have some limitations: Historical Data: Beta is based on historical price movements, and the past may not necessarily predict future performance accurately. Market Conditions: Beta assumes that market conditions will remain constant, which is often not the case. Single-factor Metric: Beta considers only market-related risk and does not account for other factors like company-specific events or changes in industry dynamics. Conclusion Beta is a useful tool for investors to gauge the volatility and risk associated with a particular share relative to the overall market. It aids in constructing a well-balanced portfolio and managing risk according to individual investment goals and risk tolerance. However, beta should not be the sole factor in investment decisions, as it's essential to consider other aspects of a company's fundamentals and the broader economic environment to make well-informed investment choices. As with any investment analysis, it's prudent to conduct thorough research. Top 40 share beta and selected markets: The chart below highlights the top 10 and bottom 10 changes in betting trends for the selected markets, providing a comprehensive overview of the most significant shifts. Download the Excel file here: