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Introduction: Relative Price Strength (RPS) is a key technical indicator used by traders and investors to assess the performance of an equity relative to the broader market or its industry peers. By understanding RPS and incorporating it into their investment strategies, individuals can gain valuable insights into an equity's potential for future price movement. We will delve into the concept of RPS, how it is calculated, and its significance in share trading. What is Relative Price Strength (RPS)? Relative Price Strength, also known as Relative Strength, is a momentum-based metric that evaluates an equity's performance relative to a benchmark index or a group of peers. It is used to identify equities that have outperformed or underperformed in their market or sector over a specified period. RPS Calculation: To calculate RPS, we compare the price performance of a particular share to the performance of a designated benchmark index or a group of shares. The RPS calculation typically involves comparing the price change over a specific time frame, depending on the preference of the trader or investor. The formula for calculating RPS is as follows: RPS = (Share's Price at date x / Share's Price at date y) / (Benchmark's Price at date x / Benchmark's Price at date y) date x = most recent price of the share or benchmark date y = price of the share or benchmark x periods ago Understanding RPS Values: The RPS value is represented as a ratio, and it indicates the stock's relative strength compared to the benchmark or peer group. A value above 1 suggests that the share has outperformed the benchmark or peers, while a value below 1 indicates underperformance. Significance of RPS in Share Trading: Identifying Strong Performers: RPS helps traders and investors identify shares that have demonstrated significant price strength compared to the overall market or their sector. These shares are often considered strong performers and may continue to exhibit positive price movement. Trend Confirmation: RPS can help confirm the prevailing trends in the market or sector. Shares with high RPS values are more likely to be in uptrends, while those with low RPS values might be in downtrends. Share Selection: Traders can use RPS to filter and prioritise their share selection process. A higher RPS value could make a share more appealing for trading or investment opportunities. Divergence Detection: RPS can also help identify potential divergences between a share and the broader market or sector. Divergences occur when an equity's price moves in the opposite direction to its RPS, which might signal a potential trend reversal or correction. Limitations of RPS: While RPS can be a valuable tool for assessing relative performance, it has some limitations that traders and investors should be aware of: Short-Term Focus: RPS is primarily a short to medium-term indicator. It might not accurately reflect a share's long-term potential or fundamental strength. Benchmark Selection: The choice of benchmark or peer group can significantly impact the RPS calculation. Different benchmarks can lead to different RPS values for the same share. Conclusion: Relative Price Strength (RPS) is a valuable technical indicator that provides insights into an equity's relative performance compared to a benchmark index or its peers. By understanding RPS, traders and investors can make more informed decisions, identify strong performers, and validate existing trends in the market or sector. However, like any single metric, RPS should be used in conjunction with other indicators and fundamental analysis to make well-rounded investment decisions. JSE All Share headline indices RPS: In the financial markets, certain headline indices have showcased remarkable outperformance, suggesting a notable influx of capital. This surge in capital inflow signals growing trader and investor confidence and interest in these headline indices. Whereas traders and investors seem to be reallocating their investments away from headline indices where there is an outflow of capital. Capital Inflow headline indices (in ranking order): Financials Industrials Capital outflow headline indices (in ranking order): Resources JSE All Share share RPS: Understanding the performance of individual shares in comparison to the broader market is crucial for traders and investors seeking to capitalise on market trends. The table below highlights the top 20 and bottom 20 shares based on RPS, with a lookback period of the last 10 days, indicated by their ranking changes since the previous update. The table is updated daily. The Top 20 RPS Leaders: these are the shares that have exhibited the strongest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index over the past 10 days. The Bottom 20 RPS Laggards: these shares have shown the weakest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index over the same 10-day period. JSE All Share sector RPS: In this analysis, we will examine the top 10 and bottom 10 sectors based on RPS, considering the lookback period of the last 10 days. The table is also updated daily. The Top 10 RPS Leading Sectors These sectors have demonstrated the strongest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index during the 10-day lookback period. The Bottom 10 RPS Lagging Sectors Conversely, these sectors have exhibited the weakest relative price performance within the JSE All Share index over the same 10-day period. https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

The market overview serves as a comprehensive snapshot of the financial markets, providing a summary of various asset classes, sectors, and indices. Its primary purpose is to showcase the performance of different financial instruments over a specific period. https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

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VIEW RETAINED: THE TARGET OF 17.42 HAS BEEN SUCCESSFULLY REACHED. The general view of an A,B,C type correction to S1 has materialiSed and been validated. Recent price action has, however not yet confirmed a medium-term bullish reversal Bullish price action has not been able decisively breach the pivotal R0* level. Residual bearish sentiment could result in overlapping PQ-type downside to S1 and even Q*, before a medium-term bottom is established. The pair is in an interim neutral phase after reaching targets and the illustrated preferred outlook is thus of medium to low conviction. R0* and Q* are now the important levels. A breach of R0* will activate the 1,2,3,4,5 gains. Targets: S1 is the previous consolidation bottom. S2* is important where A= C in length is a common technical extension target. A breach of S2* will extend the downside to S3. Breaking above R1* will negate the current view. Target and Re-assessment Levels: View Negated: R1* and Q* Primary Trend and Target Levels: PQ downside, followed by gains to R1 and R2 Current Trend and Target Levels: Downside towards S1 Monthly Range: R0*/Q* Technical Rating: Neutral https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

VIEW RETAINED FOR A BULL TREND TO 37200 / 41000 The view of impulsive gains from the PQ wedge pattern, followed by a strong bull trend to T1 and T2, remains preferred. The initial phase of the expected 1,2,3,4 & 5 bull trend has likely been completed at the R1 previous top resistance. The interim expectation of a R1/S1 consolidation phase continues as phase 2 and has normalised overbought RSI conditions. A sharp break of R1 will activate the indicated medium-term upside is the pivotal level where the bullish outlook will be neutralised. Target and Re-assessment Levels: Pivotal Levels: S1* Primary Trend: Gains to T1 and T2 Prevailing Trend: R1/S1 consolidation Technical Rating: Medium to High https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

VIEW RETAINED: CORRECTION POSSIBILITY OFF THE 4630 LEVEL The long-held bullish view is testing the target R0/R1** target range. The longer-term blue labelling (1,2,3,4 & 5) has been added to indicate the longer-term bullish bias. While the bull trend remains intact the medium-term outlook is for correction probability to S0*. This should be phase 4 of the impulsive bull trend to R2 (see the insert). This is an adjustment to the previous outlook of a bullish correction rather than a trend. An eventual red W,X, Y correction could re-visit S1 as part of the longer-term bull trend. The importance of the target area: R1/R2* is cluster resistance where red 3 = 1.618 of 1, as common trending extension targets. The RSI oscillator (lower panel) is overbought and diverging. The recent sharp reversal candlestick (highlighted) could be an early sign of a top. Important levels: R1** and S0* will negate the medium-term illustrated view. Technical conviction: Medium https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

The market overview serves as a comprehensive snapshot of the financial markets, providing a summary of various asset classes, sectors, and indices. Its primary purpose is to showcase the performance of different financial instruments over a specific period. https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

Introduction In the world of share trading, understanding correlation is vital for making informed investment decisions and managing risk effectively. Correlation plays a crucial role in assessing how different shares or assets move in relation to each other, providing insights into portfolio diversification, risk management, and potential investment opportunities. We will explore the concept of correlation in share trading, its importance, and how traders and investors can leverage this knowledge to improve their strategies. What is Correlation in Share Trading? In share trading, correlation refers to the statistical relationship between the price movements of two or more shares or assets. When two shares have a positive correlation, they tend to move in the same direction – when one share's price increases, the other share's price also increases. On the other hand, a negative correlation indicates that two shares tend to move in opposite directions – when one share's price increases, the other share's price decreases. Finally, if two shares have a correlation close to zero, it suggests that their price movements are not significantly related. Measuring Correlation in Share Trading The most common method of measuring correlation between two shares is by using the Pearson correlation coefficient, just like in general statistics. The correlation coefficient ranges from -1 to 1, with the same interpretation as before: r = 1 indicates a perfect positive correlation, where the two shares move in complete harmony. r = -1 indicates a perfect negative correlation, where the two shares move in opposite directions. r ≈ 0 indicates little to no correlation, suggesting that the two shares have independent price movements. Importance of Correlation in Share Trading Understanding the correlation between different shares is crucial for several reasons: Diversification: Correlation helps traders identify assets that have low or negative correlations with each other. Diversifying a portfolio with assets that are not highly correlated can help reduce overall risk. When some assets decrease in value, others might increase, which can mitigate losses. Risk Management: High correlations among shares can increase the overall risk in a portfolio. If all shares in a portfolio are positively correlated, they are more likely to experience simultaneous declines during market downturns. By knowing the correlation between holdings, traders can optimise their portfolios to manage risk more effectively. Identifying Investment Opportunities: Traders can use correlation analysis to identify potential investment opportunities. For example, if they notice a positive correlation between two shares, they might consider one as a proxy for the other. If the correlation is negative, they may see a hedging opportunity to protect against price declines. Sector Analysis: Correlation analysis can help traders understand the broader movements within specific sectors or industries. For example, in a technology-heavy sector, many shares might be positively correlated, and understanding this can influence investment decisions within that sector. Limitations of Correlation in Share Trading While correlation is a valuable tool, it has its limitations: Changing Market Conditions: Correlations between shares can change over time due to shifts in market dynamics, economic conditions, or company-specific events. Traders need to monitor correlations regularly and be prepared for them to evolve. Limited to Linear Relationships: Correlation measures linear relationships between variables. Some shares may have non-linear relationships, making it important to consider other forms of analysis alongside correlation. Causation Concerns: As always, it's essential to remember that correlation does not imply causation. Just because two shares are correlated does not necessarily mean that one share causes the price movement of the other. Conclusion In share trading, understanding correlation is a powerful tool for making informed decisions, managing risk, and optimising investment portfolios. By analysing the relationship between different shares, traders can diversify their portfolios effectively, identify hedging opportunities, and navigate changing market conditions more intelligently. However, correlation should always be used in combination with other forms of analysis, and traders must be cautious about drawing causal conclusions solely based on correlation. With a solid understanding of correlation, traders can navigate the dynamic world of share trading with greater confidence and success. Top 40 share correlation and selected markets The heatmap displayed below presents the constituents of the Top 40 index alongside selected major markets. This dynamic heatmap is updated daily, providing valuable insights. For added convenience, you can download the corresponding data as an Excel file. Stay informed of the latest trends and changes in the market through this user-friendly visualisation. Download the Excel file here: https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

The Week That Was The equity market closed on a positive note Friday, with the Dow Jones surging 176 points higher. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also experienced gains of 1% and 1.9%, respectively. Trades and investors carefully considered the latest US corporate earnings reports and economic data, finding reassurance in the economy's resilience. The PCE inflation rate eased further in June, and when coupled with recent GDP data, it indicates the economy's strength, fostering optimism that the US Fed may soon conclude its tightening measures. Notably, Intel enjoyed a significant boost, with a 6.6% increase in its stock price due to impressive quarterly results and a positive outlook. Similarly, Roku's shares surged by an impressive 31.3% following a smaller-than-expected loss for the recent quarter and better-than-anticipated revenues. Procter & Gamble also saw a rise of 3% in its stock value after reporting upbeat results and a promising outlook. On the flip side, Exxon Mobil experienced a slight dip of 1.2% due to mixed second-quarter results. Meanwhile, Ford's shares declined by 3.4% despite strong quarterly earnings, as the company pushed back its EV production goal to the following year. Looking at the overall performance for the week, the Dow Jones registered a modest gain of 0.4%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.8%, and the Nasdaq showed the most significant growth, rising by 2.1%. On Friday, the JSE FTSE experienced a notable increase of 0.31%, reaching 78 507 points, its highest level in six weeks. This surge was largely attributed to growing expectations that the tightening measures implemented by the US central bank may soon come to an end, providing a positive sentiment to market participants. However, on the domestic front, South Africa's economy still faces challenges due to the ongoing energy crisis and obstacles in the transport and logistics sector. These factors continue to hinder current economic activity and raise concerns about future growth prospects. In response to these challenges, 115 South African business CEOs have made a commitment to collaborate with the government to address and reverse the situation. Among the standout performers in the corporate sector, Naspers recorded a significant gain of 4.03%, followed by Northam Platinum with an increase of 3.32%, and Netcare with a rise of 2.98%. On the other hand, Investec experienced a decline of 1.74%, making it the biggest loser on the market. Overall, the main equity index in South Africa showed resilience throughout the week, posting a noteworthy gain of approximately 2.2%. The Week Ahead In the US, market participants are closely monitoring key economic indicators, such as the jobs report and ISM PMI surveys. July's non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 184 000, which would be the lowest figure since a decline recorded in December 2020. This could signal the potential effects of the unprecedented policy tightening implemented by the Fed in recent months. Additionally, traders and investors are eagerly anticipating the second-quarter earnings season, with reports from major companies like Apple Inc, Amazon.com, Advanced Micro Devices, Shopify, Alibaba Group, Uber Technologies, Merck & Co, Pfizer, Gilead Sciences, Moderna, Caterpillar Inc, Starbucks Corp, The Kraft Heinz Co, Etsy, PayPal Holdings, and Airbnb. Besides, they are also keeping a close eye on economic indicators like the ADP employment change, second-quarter labour productivity, labour costs, factory orders, and regional industry indexes such as the Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index. In the UK, all attention is focused on the upcoming Bank of England meeting, where policymakers are expected to raise the key bank rate by 25 bps to 5.25%, the highest level since April 2008. On the economic data front, the Bank of England will release its monetary indicator, the Nationwide Building Society will publish housing prices, and S&P Global will update PMIs. Elsewhere in Europe, market participants are eagerly awaiting flash estimates for the second-quarter GDP and inflation in the Euro Area. It is anticipated that the Euro Area will witness a return to growth in the second quarter. Inflation rates in the Euro Area are also being closely watched, with the annual inflation rate expected to fall to 5.3% in July, the lowest level since January 2022. The core inflation rate is projected to decrease to 5.4%, which is still close to the record levels of 5.7%. Turning to Asia, Chinese PMI figures for July will provide insights into the country's sluggish economic recovery, potentially indicating the extent of incoming economic support from the government. Additionally, China will release its current account balance for the second quarter. In Japan, a busy week of economic releases will be headlined by the minutes from the Bank of Japan's latest meeting, following a surprising loosening of its yield curve control policy. Japan will also unveil June's retail sales, industrial production, unemployment rate, and consumer confidence for July. Key Themes for the Week Ahead US non-farm payrolls Anticipation builds as Friday's US jobs report is expected to reveal a positive addition of 184 000 jobs in July, while maintaining a historically low unemployment rate of 3.6%. However, there are indications that average hourly earnings have cooled. The labour market's robustness has played a crucial role in shaping the belief that the economy is on track for a "soft landing," characterised by controlled inflation and strong growth. Last week, market participant's confidence received a significant boost after Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced that the central bank's staff no longer forecasts a US recession. Additionally, Powell expressed optimism about inflation, stating that it had a chance of returning to the target 2% rate without significant job losses. In response to economic conditions, the Fed recently raised rates by 25 basis points to the highest level since 2007, and it remains open to the possibility of further rate increases depending on future economic data. A critical concern is whether the economy is growing too rapidly, which could potentially necessitate more rate hikes to contain inflation. Conversely, if there is a steep drop in employment, it might reignite fears of a recession. Overall, the upcoming jobs report and its implications are being closely watched by traders and investors and policymakers as they gauge the state of the economy and potential monetary policy decisions in the near future. BOE interest rate decision The Bank of England (BOE) is gearing up for its upcoming rate-setting meeting on Thursday, and there is a division among market participants regarding the possibility of a 25 basis point rate hike. This comes on the heels of a significant 50 bps increase in June. While inflation has not accelerated since February and there are indications that widespread price pressures might be easing, it's important to note that inflation still stands at a concerning 7.9% as of June, making it the highest among major economies and well above the BOE's 2% target. Given this scenario, the chance of a 50 bps rate hike should not be dismissed, especially if policymakers believe that another hike might be necessary in September. Criticism has been directed at the BOE for allegedly lagging behind the curve, as inflation continued to climb higher than expected despite implementing 13 consecutive rate increases since December 2021. This persistent inflationary pressure has raised concerns about the potential for a recession. As the rate-setting meeting approaches, market participants are closely monitoring the central bank's decision and its outlook on inflation, economic growth, and further policy actions. The outcome of the meeting could have significant implications for the financial markets and the overall economic trajectory. Eurozone economic data On Monday, the Eurozone is set to release its preliminary estimates of July inflation and second-quarter GDP, a highly anticipated event given the ongoing debate surrounding the possibility of another interest rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) in September. Analysts expect the GDP data to indicate a rebound in the bloc's economy during the second quarter, while inflation is projected to show only a slight moderation. Despite inflation halving since its peak in October, it remains elevated at 5.5%, well above the ECB's target of 2%. Recently, the ECB raised its deposit rate to a historic high; however, it did not provide a clear indication of further rate hikes in its policy statement. As a result, assuming another rate increase at the upcoming September meeting would be premature. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasised that the future course of action is uncertain, even though the central bank remains committed to tackling inflation. The ECB's stance appears to be carefully balanced, acknowledging the need to address inflationary pressures while maintaining flexibility in its decisions. The forthcoming data release and the ECB's subsequent response will be closely monitored by market participants, as they seek clues about the central bank's intentions and how it plans to navigate the economic landscape amid persistent inflationary challenges. China PMIs At the beginning of this week, the release of PMI data from China is expected to reveal a continuation of manufacturing activity contraction for the fourth consecutive month in July. This highlights the urgency for implementing stimulus measures to support the post-pandemic recovery in the world's second-largest economy. On Monday, the official manufacturing PMI, which primarily focuses on large and state-owned companies, along with the survey for the services sector, will be made public. Subsequently, on Tuesday, the Caixin manufacturing PMI, which concentrates on small and medium-sized enterprises, will be released. Adding to the concerns, data from Thursday revealed that industrial profits have sustained a double-digit decline for the sixth consecutive month. The Chinese economy experienced sluggish growth in the second quarter, impacted by weakened demand both domestically and internationally. However, most analysts believe that policymakers are unlikely to implement aggressive stimulus measures due to mounting fears surrounding debt risks. The situation in China remains challenging, with policymakers facing the delicate task of stimulating the economy while keeping potential debt risks in check. The PMI data releases will be closely watched as they offer crucial insights into the economic situation and could influence the government's decisions regarding appropriate measures to support sustainable growth. US Earnings As earnings season continues, all eyes are on tech giants Apple and Amazon, set to announce their earnings after Thursday's market close. However, some traders and investors remain cautious about the rally in technology stocks, which has been partly fueled by excitement surrounding advancements in artificial intelligence. Notably, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has surged nearly 44% year-to-date, with the S&P 500 information technology sector not far behind, gaining nearly 46%. Recent optimistic forecasts from Meta Platforms and strong results from Google parent Alphabet last week have provided support to those who argue that the sky-high valuations of megacap companies are warranted. As of Friday, over half of the companies listed on the S&P 500 had already reported their second-quarter earnings, with an impressive 78.7% of them surpassing analyst expectations, as reported by Refinitiv data cited by Reuters. This positive trend adds to the overall sentiment in the market. With Apple and Amazon's earnings eagerly awaited, market participants are carefully monitoring these updates and forecasts to better gauge the technology sector's future trajectory amid concerns of a potential faltering in technology stocks. South Africa The Jacob Zuma Foundation firmly maintains its stance that the former president has already completed his allotted sentence. This comes in light of recent news that the Department of Correctional Services (DCS) has requested input from concerned parties regarding the possibility of Jacob Zuma's return to prison. The recent enactment of a new law aimed at narrowing the racial economic gap in South Africa, a nation known for its persistent inequality, has ignited public debate and led to protests by the main opposition party. On 12 April, President Cyril Ramaphosa signed the Employment Equity Amendment Bill of 2020 into law. This legislation lays down "equity targets" with the objective of expediting racial equality in the business sector. The move is being closely watched by various stakeholders as it addresses a longstanding issue of disparity in the country's economy. The Civilian Secretariat for the Police Service has published new draft regulations for public input. These proposed regulations are designed to create a fresh council, introduce a regulatory body, and define several additional functions for the Minister of Police. The main objective behind these changes is to safeguard the country's critical infrastructure. Members of the public now have the opportunity to provide their feedback on these proposed regulations before they are finalised. Economic Calendar In the upcoming economic calendar for this week, several significant events are scheduled to take place. https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer

Introduction When it comes to investing in shares, it's crucial to be armed with the right tools and knowledge to make informed decisions. One of the most important metrics that investors use to assess the risk and return potential of equities is beta. Beta is a numerical value that measures the sensitivity of a share's price movements relative to changes in the broader market. We will delve into the concept of beta and explore its significance for share investors. What is Beta? Beta, often denoted as "β," is a statistical measure used in finance to quantify the volatility or systematic risk of a share compared to the overall market. The market, in this context, is typically represented by an index, such as the Top 40 index. The beta value indicates how much a share's price is expected to move concerning the market's movements. It helps investors understand how closely the share's performance is tied to the market's fluctuations. Interpreting Beta Values β = 1: If a share has a beta of 1, it moves in perfect correlation with the market. Its price tends to rise or fall by the same percentage as the market index. Such shares are considered market-neutral in terms of volatility. β < 1: A share with a beta below 1 is less volatile than the market. In other words, it is expected to have smaller price swings than the overall market. These shares are often referred to as defensive equities and are perceived to offer a more stable investment option. β > 1: A share with a beta above 1 is more volatile than the market. It tends to experience larger price movements, both upward and downward, compared to the market index. These shares are considered aggressive or growth-oriented investments. Risk and Return Relationship Beta plays a crucial role in determining the risk and return profile of a share. Typically, higher beta shares offer the potential for greater returns but also come with higher risk. Conversely, lower beta shares may have more modest returns but tend to be less risky and more stable during market downturns. For example, if Share A has a beta of 1.5, and the market (represented by an index) increases by 10%, Share A might be expected to rise by 15% (1.5 times the market return). Conversely, if the market falls by 10%, Share A could be anticipated to decline by 15%. How to Use Beta in Investment Decisions Diversification: Beta can help investors build a diversified portfolio. By combining shares with different beta values, investors can offset the risk of high-beta shares with the stability of low-beta shares. Risk Management: Beta assists in assessing the level of risk an investor is willing to undertake. Conservative investors might opt for low-beta shares, while those seeking higher returns might favour high-beta shares. Market Timing: Understanding beta can help investors make better decisions about when to buy or sell a share. During a bullish market, high-beta shares may outperform, while during a bearish market, low-beta shares may hold up better. Limitations of Beta While beta is a valuable metric, it does have some limitations: Historical Data: Beta is based on historical price movements, and the past may not necessarily predict future performance accurately. Market Conditions: Beta assumes that market conditions will remain constant, which is often not the case. Single-factor Metric: Beta considers only market-related risk and does not account for other factors like company-specific events or changes in industry dynamics. Conclusion Beta is a useful tool for investors to gauge the volatility and risk associated with a particular share relative to the overall market. It aids in constructing a well-balanced portfolio and managing risk according to individual investment goals and risk tolerance. However, beta should not be the sole factor in investment decisions, as it's essential to consider other aspects of a company's fundamentals and the broader economic environment to make well-informed investment choices. As with any investment analysis, it's prudent to conduct thorough research. Top 40 share beta and selected markets: The heatmap displayed below presents the constituents of the Top 40 index alongside selected major markets. This dynamic heatmap is updated daily, providing valuable insights. For added convenience, you can download the corresponding data as an Excel file. Stay informed of the latest trends and changes in the market through this user-friendly visualisation. Download the Excel file here: https://www.unum.capital/research-disclaimer