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Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Analyst Disclosure: The analysis below was compiled using an artificial intelligence tool, based on the analyst's own data. Current Phase: 🔴 Tactical Reset / Support Search Next Best-Probability Phase: 🟡 Volatility Compression / Mean Reversion Attempt Tactical Risk Assessment: Integrated Confluence Buying & Long Positions Risk for New Buy Entries: Falling Knife / Confluence Gap. You are initiating an entry where the Mid Term (Daily) momentum is currently NEUTRAL and trending lower. The primary risk is a "Laggard" flush toward the 140,000c structural support before a durable floor is established, as the Tactical Momentum (Weekly) has already entered the OVERSOLD zone. Risk for Existing Long Positions: Capital Erosion. The breakdown from the 180,000c structural pivot has turned that former floor into a heavy ceiling. Failure to defend the immediate liquidity near 150,000c risks a complete re-rating toward the Core Baseline (Monthly) anchor near 120,000c. What Can Change? A definitive daily reversal candle with a long lower wick at the current 155,143c level, followed by a hook in the Fast Weekly momentum, would signal institutional absorption. Selling & Short Positions Risk for New Short Entries: Extreme Mean Reversion. You are shorting a daily tape where price is already well below the recent peak and Tactical Momentum (Weekly) is OVERSOLD. The risk of a violent "oversold snapback" to reset tactical oscillators is high, potentially squeezing shorts back toward the 170,000c level. Risk for Existing Short Positions: Profit Retention. Existing shorts are well-rewarded by the vertical drop from 200,000c. The risk is overstaying the move as Tactical Momentum (Weekly) hits terminal lows, where professional desks typically take heavy partial profits. What Can Change? If the Mid Term (Daily) momentum accelerates into HIGH BEARISH MOMENTUM, it confirms the markdown has moved from "orderly" to "capitulation," lowering the risk of a sharp bounce. Timeframe Confluence & Forecasting (WCL Model) 1-Month Forecast (🔴 Bearish/🟡 Neutral): Driven by 60% Daily / 30% Weekly / 10% Monthly. Daily oscillators are trending lower. We project a volatile attempt at base-building over the next 30 days, likely ranging between 145,000c and 165,000c as the market digests the recent crash. 3-Month Forecast (🟡 Neutral): Driven by 20% Daily / 50% Weekly / 30% Monthly. The Structural Trend (Weekly) is currently in a markdown. We project a challenging period of "repair" where the asset grinds sideways to work off structural damage. 6-Month Forecast (🟢 Bullish): Driven by 10% Daily / 20% Weekly / 70% Monthly. The Secular Cycle (Monthly) remains in a dominant long-term uptrend. We project price stabilization six months out as the Core Baseline provides macro-structural support. Momentum Profile: Integrated Confluence Monthly (Secular Regime): STRONG. The Secular Cycle is retreating from extreme overbought levels but remains firmly above the neutral midline. This confirms the long-term bull market is intact but undergoing a "Primary Shakeout". Weekly (Structural Trend): OVERSOLD. Tactical Momentum (Weekly) and Fast Weekly oscillators have collapsed into the oversold threshold. This indicates that institutional "sell algorithms" have likely reached a point of temporary exhaustion. Daily (Tactical Speed): NEUTRAL. The Mid Term momentum is currently traversing the neutral range. It has not reached terminal oversold levels yet, suggesting the tactical reset has further room to run before a durable bounce becomes highly probable. Synthesis: Extreme structural fear is currently meeting secular strength. The markdown is vertical and "stretched," favoring a period of volatility compression and relief. Structural Analysis & Tactical Bias Evaluating the broader macro context, ANG is currently trading at 155,143c. It has definitively broken the primary 180,000c support shelf, which now acts as the dominant resistance ceiling. The tape is seeking a higher-low base relative to the 2024 structural floor. Given the terminal oversold state of the Weekly frame, the tactical bias is 🔴 Tactical Reset / Support Search. Key Support & Resistance Levels: Resistance: 180,000c (Structural Breakdown Shelf / COP). Support: 145,000c (Psychological / Local Pivot). Macro Floor: 120,000c (Core Baseline Anchor). Please Note: This research/analysis may NOT reflect the entire view on the instrument discussed. Other technical valuation models may include: Momentum Analysis, the Price Action Model, Momentum Matrix, Slope Analysis & Relative Analysis among others. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (06 August 2025): Global Idea: Cummins (Power Solutions/Global Power Technology) Code: CMI (NYSE) Current Price: $380.79 Target: $500 Stop-loss: $340 Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za DISTRIBUTION: Swing high resistance levels are ~R272 (medium term), ~R320 (long term). Trading around these levels would push the share into an extreme overbought range. RE-ACCUMULTAION: Confluence of the 75-day EMA and 200-week SMA between R170 and R180. MONTHLY = OVERBOUGHT WEEKLY = HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM / APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT DAILY = STRONG Recently, Sasol exceeded our medium term target of R175. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za The broad market exhibited strong expansionary breadth at Thursday's close, with an Advance/Decline ratio of 4.54. Long-term structural health remains robust with 65.2% of issues above their 200-day SMA. The Bottom Line: Thursday delivered a violent, broad-based "risk-on" rally that firmly reinforced the market's long-term bullish structure. The sheer speed of the buying has triggered a bullish reversal (at an index level), but also risks pushing the tape into ultra short term froth-like conditions (for selected stocks). Key Takeaways: Massive Structural Strength: Institutional buying was incredibly broad, lifting almost the entire 135-stock universe. This aggressive bid erased recent short-term pain and pushed dozens of stocks back above their key moving averages, perfectly aligning short-term momentum with the secular bull trend. Aggressive Cyclical Rotation: Capital forcefully rotated into riskier, high-beta assets. The rally was driven primarily by Basic Materials/Mining, a yield-seeking surge in Real Estate (REITs), and historic special-situation anomalies (like SOLBE1's +32% spike). Warning—Short-Term Froth: The velocity of the squeeze was so intense that a massive chunk of the market is now pinned within 3% of their 1-month and 3-month highs. While gold miners remain the true 52-week secular leaders, this sudden widespread froth acts as a mathematical warning that the broader market is stretched tight and vulnerable to short-term pullbacks. 1. Daily A/D Ratio (Advance/Decline): Extreme Breadth Expansion Thursday saw an absolute blowout for the bulls. Out of the 135 equities tracked, the vast majority closed in the green, with only a tiny, isolated handful of decliners (like KRO, LSK, and WBC). This highly skewed ratio confirms that Thursday’s rally was a genuine, broad-based institutional buying program across almost all sectors, rather than just a few heavyweights propping up the index. 2 & 3. MA Trend Stacking & Secular Health (>200d SMA): Structural Strength The long-term foundation of the market remains highly robust, with the heavy majority of the JSE universe trading comfortably above their 200-day Simple Moving Averages. Furthermore, because of Thursday's violent upward thrust, the "Full Bull" slice (where Price > 8 EMA > 21 EMA > 75 EMA > 200 SMA) expanded significantly as dozens of stocks reclaimed their short-term tactical moving averages in a single session. 4. Daily Return Distribution: Heavy Right-Tail Skew (Risk-On) The histogram of daily returns is heavily skewed to the upside, showing price-insensitive buying. The deep-red left side of the distribution is virtually empty. There is a massive cluster of heavyweights in the +2% to +5% bucket (e.g., EXX +5.30%, IMP +4.57%, HAR +3.98%, AGL +2.48%). There are extreme anomalies in the >+5% bucket showing aggressive special-situation buying (SOLBE1 +32.45%, CLI +16.18%). 5, 6, 7 & 8. Proximity to Extremes (1M, 3M, 6M, 52W): Short-Term Froth Because of the sheer velocity of Thursday's squeeze, the pies representing 1-Month and 3-Month Proximity show a massive portion of the universe pinned in the "Near Highs" (<3% from the high) bucket. While this indicates extreme core strength, it also acts as a mathematical warning that the "rubber band" is stretched tightly to the upside in the immediate term. The 52-Week pie shows that the true secular leaders pinning their yearly highs remain largely concentrated in the precious metals complex and select rand-hedges. 9. Avg % Drawdown From High: Erasing Short-Term Pain The bars representing the average distance from 1-Month and 3-Month highs shrank considerably. This metric shows that the "pain level" of the average portfolio dropped dramatically on Thursday, as the broad cyclical rally recovered significant ground in a single daily candle. 10. Top 3 Sectors (%): The Drivers of the Rally Based on Thursday's average daily returns, the top-performing sectors driving the tape were: Process Industries / Chemicals: Heavily distorted to the upside by SOLBE1's historic +32.45% surge. Basic Materials / Mining: Driven by an aggressive institutional rotation into heavy cyclicals (EXX, IMP, GLN, AGL). Real Estate (REITs): A broad, yield-seeking bid lifted the property complex, with names like PHP (+5.67%), EMI (+5.19%), and SRE (+5.08%) staging powerful breakouts. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za S&P 500 Index Bottom Line: I Was Wrong, But The Data Wasn't. THE DATA (PRICE ACTION MODEL): Thus far, the index rebounded by nearly 14%, in line with the price action model (1 to 10 day time frame) which stated that the 'reward-to-risk had become appealing for a buy/long position.' LESTER'S VIEW: The was out of line with my manual view i.e. it did not get down to the buy re-entry range nor did it find resistance at the sell re-entry range. My expectation was for a further decline toward the prior breakout level or a minor rally before a dip toward the next buy re-entry range. Previous Post (Sunday, 28 March): S&P 500 Index: Waterfall Breakdown + Next Best Actionable Areas Published on Sunday, 29 March for Monday, 30 March. S&P 500 Index (SPX) Momentum Profile: The weekly momentum profile reveals a catastrophic and uniform collapse. The Ultra Short Term and Short Term tiers have plunged to absolute zero-bound extremes, indicating maximum historical localized selling pressure and algorithmic capitulation. The Mid Term has dragged deep into weak territory, and the Base Term has now fractured below its neutral band into weakness, confirming that the aggressive sell-off has fundamentally damaged the longer-term macro trend. Structural Analysis & Tactical Bias: Evaluating the 20-week macro context, the SPX was previously in a sustained, orderly structural uptrend, peaking near ~6,650. Within the 10-week window, the index printed a clear double-top distribution structure, failing to sustain new highs as institutional exhaustion set in. Looking at the 3-to-5-week timeframe, this distribution phase resolved violently to the downside. Isolating the immediate 1-week timeframe, the index printed a devastating red waterfall candle, effortlessly slicing through the 6,500 critical psychological level to close near absolute weekly lows at 6,368.85. Given the total collapse in momentum and the definitive breakdown of the macro floor, the tactical bias is strictly 🔴 Avoid / Waterfall Capitulation. Key Support & Resistance Levels: Overhead supply and macro resistance are firmly established at ~6,500 to ~6,600, representing the massive broken support zone that now acts as a formidable ceiling containing trapped long positions. Immediate structural support is currently in a state of price discovery, but psychological and historical liquidity points to the ~6,000 to ~6,100 zone as the next viable floor. Major historical demand lies deeper at ~5,700, marking the major breakout consolidation base from late 2024. Next Candle Probability: The current price action perfectly aligns with Scenario 99: 🔴 Waterfall Capitulation. The 1-week candle is a massive, wide-range downward expansion that completely ignored any intraday buying attempts. Because it closed at the absolute lows with virtually no lower wick, it indicates sellers maintained aggressive, panic-driven control straight into the Friday bell. The highest structural probability for the next weekly candle is continued downside follow-through, targeting lower liquidity pools as margin calls and systematic unwinds persist. Primary View Invalidation: To invalidate this waterfall capitulation primary view, buyers must orchestrate a miraculous, high-volume V-shaped short squeeze that immediately arrests the slide and sustains a weekly close back above the ~6,500 breakdown level. This would trap the aggressive short positioning, suggest the massive flush was an anomalous liquidity sweep, and stabilize the broader macro structure. Technical Risks & Opportunities: 3 Technical Risks: Cascading Systemic Unwinds: A continuation below current levels risks triggering further mechanical selling from volatility-targeting funds and negative gamma options positioning, violently accelerating the markdown phase. Momentum Entrenchment: If the Ultra Short Term and Short Term oscillators remain pinned at the zero-bound extreme without triggering a relief bounce, it signals a structural regime change where buyers have entirely abandoned the tape. Lower High Confirmation: Any anemic, low-volume relief rally that fails to forcefully clear the 6,500 supply wall will simply provide smart money with premium liquidity to short into, cementing a macro lower-high. 3 Technical Opportunities: Oversold Rubber-Band Snapback: The extreme downside fracturing and zero-bound momentum tiers create a highly pressurized, stretched environment; stabilization here could trigger a violent, highly tradable V-shaped relief rally. Generational Base Reset: Should the index flush down to the 5,700 – 6,000 historical demand zone, it would wash out months of excess macro froth and provide a pristine, low-risk institutional accumulation zone for the next cycle. Volatility Contraction Setup: If the tape can temporarily arrest the slide and begin printing tight inside bars, it sets up a defined-risk structural baseline for a mean-reversion trade once order flow balances. The Next 10 Days: Over the next two trading weeks, the index faces a critical stabilization test as it navigates the immediate fallout of this waterfall capitulation. Given the zero-bound extremes in the faster momentum tiers, market participants should anticipate highly erratic, bidirectional volatility, where sudden, sharp short-covering relief rallies toward the ~6,500 broken support are entirely plausible but remain structurally suspect. If buyers fail to orchestrate a definitive V-shaped recovery to reclaim that 6,500 ceiling, these "dead-cat" bounces will simply provide fresh liquidity for institutional sellers, likely resulting in a secondary wave of algorithmic distribution that presses the tape down to definitively test the ~6,000 to ~6,100 historical demand zone before a durable macro floor can be established. Forecast Projection Breakdown: With fast momentum obliterated and a clear downward expansion pattern cemented on the chart, the forward-looking probability distribution heavily favors a test of lower liquidity pools, though the extreme stretch warrants vigilance for sudden snap-backs. The Bearish Scenario (60% Probability): The capitulation continues unabated. Sellers easily slice through minor psychological barriers, initiating a rapid markdown targeting the ~6,000 to ~6,100 liquidity pool as panic persists. The Base/Neutral Scenario (25% Probability): The intense selling pressure temporarily exhausts itself. The index enters a choppy, highly volatile lower-range distribution phase between ~6,300 and ~6,500 as the market attempts to find an equilibrium amid shifting flows. The Bullish Scenario (15% Probability): The extreme oversold momentum triggers a violent short-covering squeeze. Buyers aggressively absorb the supply and force a rapid upward spike back toward the ~6,500 broken floor, invalidating the immediate free-fall. Previous Post (28 October 2025): S&P 500 Index (Monthly Chart Time Frame): Broadly Overbought Conditions Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Analyst's Disclosure: The graphic below has been generate using an artificial intelligence tool, based on the analyst's own data. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Analyst's Disclosure: Excluding the share price chart, the graphics below have been generate using an artificial intelligence tool, based on the analyst's own data. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Brent Crude Oil is currently riding a massive structural uptrend, though tactical indicators suggest the most aggressive phase of the rally may be encountering friction. While the macro Mid Term momentum remains firmly anchored in the higher tiers on the Monthly chart, the Daily execution timeframe has cooled significantly. This digestion has allowed the daily pulse to reset toward the Neutral zone, even as the price remains near its local highs. Because the underlying macro cycle is robust but immediate tactical indicators are retreating from "Extreme" levels, the system maintains a 🔻 Sell on Rally signal for tactical traders looking for a mean-reversion flush toward the $95.00 baseline. CLASSIFICATION: 🔻 Sell on Rally MOMENTUM PROFILE Daily Chart (Tactical): Mid Term Momentum is NEUTRAL. Following the parabolic surge in March 2026, the tactical momentum has retreated from the OVERBOUGHT tier and is currently oscillating in the Neutral band. This indicates a loss of immediate upward velocity despite price remaining elevated. Weekly Chart (Swing): Mid Term Momentum is STRONG. On the weekly scale, the momentum is currently positioned in the Strong tier. It has successfully cooled off from the "blow-off" levels seen earlier in the year but remains well above the neutral baseline, confirming that the medium-term structural trend is still in the hands of buyers. Monthly Chart (Macro): Mid Term Momentum is OVERBOUGHT. The secular view remains the most extended. The monthly momentum is pinned deep in the OVERBOUGHT tier. Historically, readings at these levels for Brent Crude precede major multi-month consolidations or sharp corrective phases. CONTRARIAN ASYMMETRY Distribution Zone (Tactical Short/Reduce): The current $112.00 – $120.00 range remains a high-probability distribution zone. Fading rallies into this overhead resistance is mathematically supported by the extreme monthly overextension. Accumulation Zone (Contrarian Long): The optimal zone to re-accumulate positions sits significantly lower, in the $85.00 – $92.00 range. This aligns with previous structural resistance that has yet to be tested as new support during this cycle. CORE THESIS Brent Crude is currently in a "Macro Overextension" phase. While the Daily Mid Term momentum has reset to neutral, the Monthly Mid Term momentum is redlining at historic exhaustion levels. The statistical probability dictates a "mean-reversion" event to bring the monthly indicators back in line with the $95.00 structural baseline. Strategically, this favors reducing long exposure on any tactical strength toward $115.00+. WHAT CAN CHANGE? The current primary thesis is a Parabolic Blow-Off primed for a Bearish Reversal. Here is what would change this outlook: Technical Triggers (Shift to Sustained Bull): If the price consolidates sideways between $105.00 and $115.00 for several weeks without breaking down, it would allow the momentum indicators to "reset through time" rather than "reset through price." A breakout above $125.00 after such a consolidation would signal a move toward $140.00+. Fundamental / Macro Triggers: A permanent and severe reduction in global spare capacity or a multi-year geopolitical conflict that removes a major producer from the market would justify these extreme technical levels. Technical Triggers (Confirmation of Bearish Flush): A daily close below $105.00 would be the first confirmation that the "Blow-Off" has peaked, likely leading to a rapid cascade toward the $90.00 support level. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes May 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmay2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Spot Gold is currently navigating a significant corrective phase within a powerful secular uptrend. While the macro Mid Term momentum has successfully reset from historic extremes on the Monthly chart, the Daily execution timeframe has plunged into a deeper digestion phase. This contraction has pushed the daily pulse into the lower bands, signaling that tactical sellers are currently in control as price retreats from the psychological blow-off highs. Because the underlying macro cycle remains structurally sound but immediate tactical indicators are washing out, the system maintains a 🔻 Sell on Rally signal for tactical traders, while shifting to an "Accumulation Watch" for long-term participants eyeing the $4,000 baseline. CLASSIFICATION: 🔻 Sell on Rally MOMENTUM PROFILE Daily Chart (Tactical): Mid Term Momentum is WEAK. Following the massive expansion in early 2026, tactical momentum has collapsed from the OVERBOUGHT tier and is currently oscillating in the Weak band. This confirms a decisive loss of upward velocity and suggests that any near-term bounces are likely to be met with overhead supply as the market seeks a tactical floor. Weekly Chart (Swing): Mid Term Momentum is NEUTRAL. On the weekly scale, momentum has retreated sharply from its recent peak and is now positioned in the Neutral tier. This indicates a "regime transition" where the previous parabolic swing has ended, and the asset is beginning to digest its gains through a price-based correction. Monthly Chart (Macro): Mid Term Momentum is NEUTRAL (Reset). The secular view has undergone a healthy cooling period. Monthly momentum, which was recently pinned in the OVERBOUGHT tier during the run to $5,500, has now washed back into the Neutral band. Historically, for Gold, a monthly reset from extreme levels precedes a period of base-building before the next secular expansion leg. CONTRARIAN ASYMMETRY Distribution Zone (Tactical Short/Reduce): The $4,800 – $5,100 range now acts as a high-probability distribution zone. Near-term rallies into this supply cluster are mathematically susceptible to failure given the current weakness in daily momentum. Accumulation Zone (Contrarian Long): The optimal zone to re-accumulate long-term positions sits in the $3,800 – $4,100 range. This aligns with major structural breakout points from 2025 that have yet to be tested as primary support during this corrective cycle. CORE THESIS Spot Gold is currently in a "Post-Expansion Digestion" phase. While the Daily Mid Term momentum is currently weak, the Monthly Mid Term momentum has successfully bled off its "Redline" exhaustion. The statistical probability favors a further "washout" toward the structural mean to fully reset the macro cycle. Strategically, this favors fading tactical strength toward $4,750+ while patiently waiting for a momentum "hook" in the $4,000 neighborhood to initiate fresh secular long exposure. WHAT CAN CHANGE? The current primary thesis is a Cyclical Correction within a Secular Bull Market. Here is what would change this outlook: Technical Triggers (Shift to Bullish Resurgence): If price reclaims and closes daily above $4,900 with the Mid Term momentum shifting aggressively from Weak back to Strong, it would signal that the correction was shallow and a retest of all-time highs is imminent. Fundamental / Macro Triggers: A sudden, systemic re-acceleration of global inflation or a massive geopolitical de-dollarization event would justify a "V-shaped" recovery that ignores these corrective technical structures. Technical Triggers (Confirmation of Deeper Flush): A weekly close below $4,300 would be the first confirmation that the current "Neutral" weekly stance is shifting to "Weak," likely accelerating a liquidation toward the $3,800 primary support baseline. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital