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Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Disclosure:  This note contains images and text that may have been generated using an A.I tool, based on the analyst's proprietary data. This excludes price chart and price action model. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Disclosure:  This note contains images and text that may have been generated using an A.I tool, based on the analyst's proprietary data. This excludes price chart(s) and price action model. . JSE Gold Miners Rotation Graph GOLD FIELDS (GFI) KEY TAKEAWAY:  🟡 WAIT FOR PULLBACK / 🔴 SHORT ON FAILURE  | Gold Fields is pushing higher in a structurally bullish regime, but is running into heavy overhead resistance with stretched near-term momentum; traders should strongly consider a tactical short-sell if the price fails at these highs, or wait for a pullback to the moving averages to safely accumulate structural longs. ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI (ANG) KEY TAKEAWAY:  🟡 WAIT FOR PULLBACK / 🔴 SHORT ON FAILURE  | AngloGold Ashanti is exhibiting an identical structural signature to its sector peers, pressing upward but facing a high probability of exhaustion at range highs; active traders should watch for a rejection to trigger short-sells, or patiently wait for a deeper pullback to moving averages. DRDGOLD (DRD) KEY TAKEAWAY:  🟡 WAIT FOR PULLBACK / 🔴 SHORT ON FAILURE  | DRDGOLD remains trapped in a choppier, rangebound macro structure compared to its peers; despite strong near-term momentum attempting an upward trend, traders must respect the overhead range bounds and look for short setups on failure, or buy the pullback to the EMAs. HARMONY GOLD (HAR) KEY TAKEAWAY:  🔴 SHORT ON FAILURE / 🟢 BUY ON PULLBACK  | Harmony Gold has surged aggressively, driving near-term momentum into extreme overbought territory; active traders should execute a 1-2 day mean-reversion short if prior sessions fail to hold, while structural buyers should wait to accumulate on strong bids near the range highs. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) : UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Disclosure:  This note contains images and text that may have been generated using an A.I tool, based on the analyst's proprietary data. This excludes price charts and price action model. KEY TAKEAWAY:  🟡 WAIT FOR PULLBACK / 🔴 SHORT ON FAILURE | Standard Bank (above) is attempting to digest a recent upward move, but near-term momentum has completely cooled off; traders should avoid chasing the immediate price action and instead wait for a structured pullback to the moving averages, or look to short if resistance outright rejects the advance. KEY TAKEAWAY:  🟢 BUY ON PULLBACK / 🔴 SHORT ON FAILURE Capitec Bank (above) is pushing higher with strong near-term momentum but is approaching structural resistance; active traders should use any minor pullback to the prior close or 8-EMA as a tactical accumulation zone, while remaining alert for a failure at the highs. KEY TAKEAWAY:  🟡 WAIT FOR BREAKOUT  | Nedbank Group (above) is trapped in a completely neutral, rangebound regime following a recent sideways consolidation; traders must remain strictly sidelined until a confirmed break of the current range provides a definitive directional trigger. KEY TAKEAWAY:  🟢 BUY ON PULLBACK / 🔴 SHORT ON FAILURE  | FirstRand (above) is attempting a strong near-term advance, but fast momentum is outpacing the macro structure as it hits resistance; active traders should use minor pullbacks to the 8-EMA to accumulate, but be fully prepared to pivot to a tactical short-sell if the range highs decisively reject the price. KEY TAKEAWAY:  🟡 WAIT FOR PULLBACK / 🔴 SHORT ON FAILURE  | Absa Group (above) is commencing an upward trend but is battling heavy structural headwinds and unconfirmed macro momentum; active traders should consider a tactical short-sell if the asset fails to hold its recent highs, or patiently wait for a deeper pullback to the 8/21-EMA to safely allocate structural longs. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Disclosure:  The image below has been generated with an A.I tool, based on the analyst's proprietary data. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Analysis performed on Friday, 17 April 2026 at 15h10 For our clients trading Harmony Gold: The share is +39% vs our 19 March trigger. Now: Too late to buy, too early to sell. Daily time frame: High Bullish Momentum/Approaching Overbought. Prefer to 'buy on pullbacks'. Peaked at R428 in January. Bottomed at R215 in March. In a 'weekly' recovery phase. The regimes and probabilities is shown via the Price Action Model below. KEY TAKEAWAY (based on the above Price Action Model & Chart):  🟢 BUY ON PULLBACK / BREAKOUT  | Harmony Gold is executing a strong bullish reversal out of a deep consolidation phase; with near-term momentum running hot, traders should look to accumulate on a structured pullback to the 8-EMA or aggressively buy on strong bids near the range highs to capture the structural rebound. (Analyst Disclosure: Automatically written using an artificial intelligence tool, based on the own inputs/data/model). READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue  and red horizontal lines  on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) : UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Disclosure: The Image Below Has Been Generated With A.I (Based on Analyst's Proprietary Data) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Visualizing Mean Reversion Risk Sectors stretched far to the left are deeply oversold (high probability of violent "snap-back" rallies), while those far to the right are extended and vulnerable to pullbacks. Disclosure: The image below has been generated with an A.I tool, based on the analyst's proprietary data. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Disclosure:  This note contains images and text that may have been generated using an A.I tool, based on the analyst's proprietary data. This excludes price chart and price action model. Breadth however, remains fairly healthy. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Disclosure:  All the images below ( excluding the price chart and price action model ) has been generated with an A.I tool, based on the analyst's proprietary data. Analyst's Price Action Model: Analyst's Chart (Source: TradingView): Previous Post (02 April 2026): TFG Bull-Bear Checklist: Early Signs of Capitulation i.e. Buy/Long Reward-To-Risk Becoming Favourable Checklist as of yesterday's close. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue  and red horizontal lines  on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) : UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Disclosure:  The image below has been generated with an A.I tool, based on the analyst's proprietary data. Disclosure:  The text below has been generated with an A.I tool, based on the analyst's proprietary data. Summary:   Gold Miners  and Platinum Miners  are standout leaders on the board, holding a Strong Long-Term trend through a Neutral Medium Term to maintain a sustainable, Strong Short-Term regime, while Diversified Miners  pushed from Long-Term strength into an Overbought Medium Term before settling to Neutral. Meanwhile, both Banks  and Insurers  have consistently maintained a strictly Neutral stance across all timeframes. On the turnaround front, Technology  and Luxury Goods  are steadily climbing out of their longer-term weakness to establish a firm, Strong short-term footing. Similarly, Consumer Discretionary  shows an impressive reversal, pulling up from an Oversold Long-Term base to reach a Strong Short-Term stance, just as Hospitals  pivot from a Weak Long-Term stance to Strong momentum in the Medium Term before resting at Neutral. Conversely, Paper & Pulp  remains trapped in persistent downward trends, languishing from an Oversold Long-Term base and remaining Weak through the shorter timeframes, alongside Consumer Staples  which only marginally improved from Weak to Neutral. Furthermore, previously robust sectors like Chemicals  are visibly losing their longer-term strength, fading entirely to Weak in the Short Term, while Coal Miners  and Telecoms  have abruptly broken down from Neutral longer-term stances to suffer High Bearish Momentum and approaching Oversold conditions in the short term. Image Below:  Analyst's Own Data Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes April 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rapril2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (15 April): S&P 500 Index: Massive +9% Rebound (In Line With Price Action Model) The index rebounded in line with the price action model (1 to 10 day time frame) but out of line with our manual view i.e. it did not get down to the buy re-entry range nor did it find resistance at the sell re-entry range. Previous Post (Sunday, 28 March): S&P 500 Index: Waterfall Breakdown + Next Best Actionable Areas Published on Sunday, 29 March for Monday, 30 March. S&P 500 Index (SPX) Momentum Profile:  The weekly momentum profile reveals a catastrophic and uniform collapse. The Ultra Short Term and Short Term tiers have plunged to absolute zero-bound extremes, indicating maximum historical localized selling pressure and algorithmic capitulation. The Mid Term has dragged deep into weak territory, and the Base Term has now fractured below its neutral band into weakness, confirming that the aggressive sell-off has fundamentally damaged the longer-term macro trend. Structural Analysis & Tactical Bias:  Evaluating the 20-week macro context, the SPX was previously in a sustained, orderly structural uptrend, peaking near ~6,650. Within the 10-week window, the index printed a clear double-top distribution structure, failing to sustain new highs as institutional exhaustion set in. Looking at the 3-to-5-week timeframe, this distribution phase resolved violently to the downside. Isolating the immediate 1-week timeframe, the index printed a devastating red waterfall candle, effortlessly slicing through the 6,500 critical psychological level to close near absolute weekly lows at 6,368.85. Given the total collapse in momentum and the definitive breakdown of the macro floor, the tactical bias is strictly 🔴 Avoid / Waterfall Capitulation . Key Support & Resistance Levels:  Overhead supply and macro resistance are firmly established at ~6,500 to ~6,600, representing the massive broken support zone that now acts as a formidable ceiling containing trapped long positions. Immediate structural support is currently in a state of price discovery, but psychological and historical liquidity points to the ~6,000 to ~6,100 zone as the next viable floor. Major historical demand lies deeper at ~5,700, marking the major breakout consolidation base from late 2024. Next Candle Probability:  The current price action perfectly aligns with Scenario 99: 🔴 Waterfall Capitulation . The 1-week candle is a massive, wide-range downward expansion that completely ignored any intraday buying attempts. Because it closed at the absolute lows with virtually no lower wick, it indicates sellers maintained aggressive, panic-driven control straight into the Friday bell. The highest structural probability for the next weekly candle is continued downside follow-through, targeting lower liquidity pools as margin calls and systematic unwinds persist. Primary View Invalidation:  To invalidate this waterfall capitulation primary view, buyers must orchestrate a miraculous, high-volume V-shaped short squeeze that immediately arrests the slide and sustains a weekly close back above the ~6,500 breakdown level. This would trap the aggressive short positioning, suggest the massive flush was an anomalous liquidity sweep, and stabilize the broader macro structure. Technical Risks & Opportunities: 3 Technical Risks: Cascading Systemic Unwinds:  A continuation below current levels risks triggering further mechanical selling from volatility-targeting funds and negative gamma options positioning, violently accelerating the markdown phase. Momentum Entrenchment:  If the Ultra Short Term and Short Term oscillators remain pinned at the zero-bound extreme without triggering a relief bounce, it signals a structural regime change where buyers have entirely abandoned the tape. Lower High Confirmation:  Any anemic, low-volume relief rally that fails to forcefully clear the 6,500 supply wall will simply provide smart money with premium liquidity to short into, cementing a macro lower-high. 3 Technical Opportunities: Oversold Rubber-Band Snapback:  The extreme downside fracturing and zero-bound momentum tiers create a highly pressurized, stretched environment; stabilization here could trigger a violent, highly tradable V-shaped relief rally. Generational Base Reset:  Should the index flush down to the 5,700 – 6,000 historical demand zone, it would wash out months of excess macro froth and provide a pristine, low-risk institutional accumulation zone for the next cycle. Volatility Contraction Setup:  If the tape can temporarily arrest the slide and begin printing tight inside bars, it sets up a defined-risk structural baseline for a mean-reversion trade once order flow balances. The Next 10 Days:  Over the next two trading weeks, the index faces a critical stabilization test as it navigates the immediate fallout of this waterfall capitulation. Given the zero-bound extremes in the faster momentum tiers, market participants should anticipate highly erratic, bidirectional volatility, where sudden, sharp short-covering relief rallies toward the ~6,500 broken support are entirely plausible but remain structurally suspect. If buyers fail to orchestrate a definitive V-shaped recovery to reclaim that 6,500 ceiling, these "dead-cat" bounces will simply provide fresh liquidity for institutional sellers, likely resulting in a secondary wave of algorithmic distribution that presses the tape down to definitively test the ~6,000 to ~6,100 historical demand zone before a durable macro floor can be established. Forecast Projection Breakdown:  With fast momentum obliterated and a clear downward expansion pattern cemented on the chart, the forward-looking probability distribution heavily favors a test of lower liquidity pools, though the extreme stretch warrants vigilance for sudden snap-backs. The Bearish Scenario (60% Probability):  The capitulation continues unabated. Sellers easily slice through minor psychological barriers, initiating a rapid markdown targeting the ~6,000 to ~6,100 liquidity pool as panic persists. The Base/Neutral Scenario (25% Probability):  The intense selling pressure temporarily exhausts itself. The index enters a choppy, highly volatile lower-range distribution phase between ~6,300 and ~6,500 as the market attempts to find an equilibrium amid shifting flows. The Bullish Scenario (15% Probability):  The extreme oversold momentum triggers a violent short-covering squeeze. Buyers aggressively absorb the supply and force a rapid upward spike back toward the ~6,500 broken floor, invalidating the immediate free-fall. Previous Post (28 October 2025): S&P 500 Index (Monthly Chart Time Frame): Broadly Overbought Conditions Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital