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Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Strong upside follow-through, running +20%. ANG reached our buy re-entry range and has rebound +13%. Use the rebound to take profits. We wrote follow up note for HAR and SSW (see website) while NED, AGL, BHG and CLS did not reach our desired buy zones. Previous Post (Sunday 15 March): Let's Trade: 7 Money-Making Opportunities Coverage: Harmony Gold (HAR) Sibanye Stillwater (SSW) AngloGold Ashanti (ANG) Nedbank Group (NED) BHP Group (BHG) Anglo American Plc (AGL) Clicks Group (CLS) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.   The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term.  The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. Harmony Gold (HAR) - Key Takeaway: Lower levels are likely to push the share into deeply oversold territory in the short term. Buy/Long: Test of swing low/is likely to be extremely oversold - looking for a S/T rebound Short/Sell: Sell rallies into the previous breakdown level. Sibanye Stillwater (SSW) Buy/Long: Approaching it's rising 200-day SMA and swing low/prior resistance. Looking for a flush below this level following a multi-day base and reclaim for a short term rebound. Short/Sell: Back-tests of the now broken 21-week EMA is likely to be sold. AngloGold Ashanti (ANG) Buy/Long: The previous swing lows (just above the 200-week SMA) is likely to coincide with medium term oversold conditions. Short/Sell: Upon an ultra short term rally, the declining 8/21-EMA is likely to act as a resistance range (expect an upside overshoot of this level. Nedbank Group (NED) - Most recently highlighted downside risk (above R310), triggered by the price action model. Now trading at R260. See note (warning) here: 26-Feb > https://www.unum.capital/post/ned2602 Buy/Long: A downside overshoot of the flat 200-day SMA (with an oversold reading) is likely trigger conditions for downside exhaustion, the start of a short term base, followed by a short term rebound. Short/Sell: A rebound from current levels, back into the downward sloping moving averages is likely to trigger a continuation sell opportunity. BHP Group (BHG) Buy/Long: First re-test of the rising 21-week EMA (provisional buy range place just below this level to account for a downside overshoot).    Short/Sell:  A rebound from current levels, back into the downward sloping moving averages. Anglo American Plc (AGL) Buy/Long: First re-test of the rising 21-week EMA (provisional buy range place just below this level to account for a downside overshoot).    Short/Sell:  A rebound from current levels, back into the downward sloping moving averages. Clicks Group (CLS): At current levels, the share exhibits the following attributes: (1) approaching oversold (2) approaching prior swing low (3) extended to the downside vs it's 200-day SMA (4) extended to the downside vs it's 21-week SMA (5) Price Action Model Reading pointing to a potentially appealing reward-to-risk. Most recently the share reached the full downside target of R310.    https://www.unum.capital/post/cls2701 CLS: Current Price Action Model Reading: Buy/Long: Into swing support + is likely to be further extended to the downside vs 200-day EMA etc. Short/Sell:  A sharp rebound into the downside sloping MA's is likely to trigger a continuation selling opportunity. Trading Notes/Resources (Where Applicable) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS:  For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value.   The blue and red  horizontal lines on the chart  represent a next best probability buy re-entry range and a next best probability sell re-entry range  over the short term.  The ranges assume no existing position being held by a trader while the probabilities are based on several factors which may include: short term rating, medium term regime, momentum, horizontal or diagonal support/resistance, candle structure, moving averages and standard deviation, among others. These are short term levels and may be in contrast to medium and long term outlooks which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and, which may be applicable to long term investors. These levels are subject to change  based on sentiment, the subsequent price action and company/sector specific or macro news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time  based on the aforementioned. "Strategy Alerts"  help clients identify trading opportunities . When a ticker's real-time or pre-market price action aligns with the criteria on a slide—such as a pullback to the 21-day EMA or a breakout from a consolidation base—it effectively "matches" that stock to the strategy, triggering an alert to a potential trading opportunity.  This approach transforms the playbook into a dynamic scanning tool, allowing you to instantly categorize active stocks by the specific technical thesis playing out , ensuring that every trading potential opportunity communicated is backed by a predefined, actionable setup. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) :  UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za 🧩 JSE Structural Flow & Mechanics Wrap 1. The "Crowded Trade" Warning Signal 🚨 We are witnessing a textbook vertical exhaustion in the Scarcity complex. SOL  and OMN  are trapped in a rare, triple-timeframe 🟢 OVERBOUGHT  state. When Daily, Weekly, and Monthly indicators all hit the ceiling simultaneously, it means the market has priced in every drop of geopolitical premium and oil strength. The margin of safety here is zero; these are late-stage FOMO targets highly vulnerable to sudden institutional liquidity harvesting. 2. The Financial Stress Test 📉 The anticipated "Rate Cut Rally" has evaporated into a severe tactical test. The Banking sector's short-term structure is actively fracturing— CPI  has plunged into 🔴 HIGH BEARISH MOMENTUM , while ABG, FSR, and SBK  have decayed to 🟠 WEAK . However, their Monthly anchors are still holding 🟢 STRONG . This sets up a critical "Make or Break" week: either institutions step in to buy this 21-EMA pullback, or the secular bank thesis breaks completely. 3. The "Necessity Premium" vs. Discretionary Capitulation 🛒 The South African consumer's wallet is entirely bifurcated. Capital is hiding in Mass Grocery ( SHP, BOX ), keeping them structurally elevated in the 🟢 STRONG  tiers. In stark contrast, Apparel and Discretionary names ( MRP, TFG, WHL ) are locked in a brutal 🔴 HIGH BEARISH  to 🔴 OVERSOLD  death spiral. The market is aggressively pricing in a consumer who can only afford the basics under the SARB's current interest rate regime. 4. The Tech Heavyweight Anchor ⚓ You cannot have a broad market bull run when the largest components are structurally broken. The Naspers/Prosus complex ( NPN, PRX ) is printing 🔴 HIGH BEARISH MOMENTUM  across all three timeframes. This triple-bearish alignment acts as a massive lead weight on the index. Global tech jitters and China proxy-fears are completely overwhelming any local "deep value" arguments for these giants. 5. The Safe-Haven Reset 🛡️ The Gold and Precious Metals thrust has lost its aggressive vertical speed. Major players like ANG  and GFI  have cooled off on the Daily timeframe, dropping out of the overbought extremes into ⚪ NEUTRAL  holding patterns. This is actually a healthy  development for swing traders; it removes the speculative froth and creates a much safer, lower-risk "Buy on Pullback" environment for those seeking a hedge against global equity weakness. 6. The Yield-Factor Squeeze 🧱 The "higher-for-longer" reality is suffocating yield-dependent equities. Property and REITs ( LTE, FFB ) are severely impaired, with Weekly and Monthly momentum trapped in the 🔴 OVERSOLD  and 🔴 HIGH BEARISH  basements. Until bond yields actually break lower, trying to catch the bottom in the property sector is fighting a losing mathematical battle against the macro environment. 7. The "Low-Volatility" Hiding Places 🤫 While the rest of the board is either rocketing higher or crashing lower, a quiet cohort of Industrials and Construction names ( WBO, RBX ) is serving as a volatility sink. By holding steady in the ⚪ NEUTRAL  and 🟠 WEAK  zones without capitulating, they represent patient capital waiting out the storm. They offer no immediate fireworks, but they are providing crucial portfolio stability. 8. The Small-Cap Liquidity Desert 🏜️ Risk appetite for the fringes of the market has died completely. Micro and small-cap counters ( BLU, CAA, AFH ) are sliding into 🔴 HIGH BEARISH MOMENTUM  purely due to a lack of bids. In a risk-off environment, liquidity concentrates in the Top 40. Holding illiquid names right now exposes portfolios to massive "air pockets" where price drops violently on very little volume. 9. Maximum Elasticity & The Pairs Trade Setup 🧲 The internal tension of the JSE is at a breaking point. The mathematical distance between the top-ranked Scarcity stocks (Overbought) and the bottom-ranked Retailers (Oversold) is unsustainably wide. Markets despise this level of asymmetry. We are entering a window where a violent "Pairs Trade Snap-Back" becomes highly probable: a sudden 10% drop in the leaders funding a sudden 15% short-squeeze in the laggards. 10. The Tactical Verdict: Defense Over Offense 🛑 Looking at the 116-share aggregate, the breadth has collapsed. The majority of the board has slipped below the 50-Neutral mark on the Daily timeframe. The structural edge has definitively shifted from "Aggressive Accumulation" to "Capital Preservation." The data dictates trimming extended winners, raising cash levels, and refusing to deploy capital until the heavily battered retail and banking names prove they can form a durable ⚪ NEUTRAL  daily floor. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Breadth Stats as at end of day on Monday, 30 March. SUMMARY: Market breadth on the JSE has severely deteriorated, revealing a dangerously top-heavy and fragmented landscape where index levels are masking underlying structural weakness. While a highly concentrated cohort of Energy and Scarcity counters (such as SOL and OMN) are artificially propping up the top end of the matrix in extreme 🟢 OVERBOUGHT  territory, true market participation is alarmingly thin. The broader "SA-Inc" foundation has cracked, evidenced by the synchronized decay of major banking heavyweights into 🟠 WEAK  or ⚪ NEUTRAL  daily trends, while an expanding graveyard of Discretionary Retail, Property, and Tech heavyweights (MRP, LTE, PRX) remains locked in deep 🔴 OVERSOLD  capitulation. This drastic negative divergence—where the isolated parabolic thrust of a few completely overshadows the active 🔴 HIGH BEARISH MOMENTUM  of the many—confirms a market devoid of sustainable, broad-based buying support, rendering the current environment highly vulnerable to a sudden systemic liquidity flush. 1. Tactical Surrender (Daily Bearishness):  A staggering 67 out of 116 shares (57.8%)  are currently languishing in the 🟠 WEAK , 🔴 HIGH BEARISH MOMENTUM , or 🔴 OVERSOLD  Daily tiers. This mathematically confirms that broad tactical participation has collapsed and sellers dictate the short-term tape. 📉 2. The "Narrow Risk-On" Cohort:  Only 23 shares (19.8%)  have managed to maintain a 🟢 STRONG , 🟢 HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM , or 🟢 OVERBOUGHT  Daily status. This extreme narrowness proves that aggressive institutional buying is isolated to a tiny, defensive fraction of the index. 🔦 3. The Secular Foundation (Monthly Bullishness):  Despite the short-term tactical bloodbath, 49 shares (42.2%)  are still holding 🟢 STRONG  or better on their Monthly macro anchors. This indicates that the long-term structural bull thesis is bent, but not yet entirely broken, for nearly half the board. 🏛️ 4. The Triple-Exhaustion Peak:  Exactly 2 shares (SOL, OMN)  are mathematically pinned in the extreme 🟢 OVERBOUGHT  tier across all three  timeframes simultaneously. This absolute extreme represents max-greed positioning and zero margin of safety for late buyers. 🌋 5. The Banking Sector Flush:   100% of the major banks  (ABG, SBK, FSR, NED, CPI) have lost their Daily bullish thrust, cascading directly into 🟠 WEAK  or 🔴 HIGH BEARISH MOMENTUM . The primary engine of the "SA-Inc" rally has officially stalled out. 🏦 6. The Neutral Waiting Room:   26 shares (22.4%)  are currently adrift in the ⚪ NEUTRAL  Daily tier. This unusually high concentration of stasis means nearly a quarter of the market is experiencing an institutional "buyer's strike," moving sideways as smart money awaits macro clarity. 🕰️ 7. Total Macro Capitulation:  Multiple heavyweights—including PRX, FBR, RCL, and TRU —are printing 🔴 HIGH BEARISH MOMENTUM  or worse across both  their Weekly and Monthly timeframes. These counters represent total structural surrender and remain highly dangerous "value traps." 🪤 8. The Oversold Basement Divergence:  Only 2 shares (MTH, LTE)  have hit absolute 🔴 OVERSOLD  on the Daily timeframe, yet 11 shares  have hit that terminal floor on their long-term Weekly or Monthly charts (including names like PIK, SAP, and TFG ). This divergence means the long-term structural pain in these specific names is actually far worse than the daily noise implies. 🕳️ 9. Sector Polarization (Top vs. Bottom):  The Resource and Scarcity sector currently holds 100% of the Top 5  momentum rankings, while Discretionary Retail and Tech hold the vast majority of the Bottom 10 . The market is aggressively rewarding hard assets while punishing yield-sensitive and consumer-facing equities. 🧲 10. The Elasticity Gap:  The momentum spread between the #1 ranked share ( SOL , pushing deep into Overbought limits) and the #116 ranked share ( LTE , bleeding in Oversold capitulation) highlights an aggressively bifurcated market. This historic rubber-band tension suggests the JSE is highly susceptible to a violent "Pairs Trade" mean-reversion event. 📏 11. The Monthly "Safe Haven" Core:  Exactly 36 shares  hold a perfect 🟢 STRONG  rating on the Monthly timeframe (the largest single cohort on the macro chart). This shows that despite daily noise, the baseline structural health for a specific third of the market (mostly defensives, select banks, and large caps) remains intact and completely un-parabolic. ⚓ 12. The Absolute "Dead Zone":   11 shares  (including MRP, PRX, FBR, ITE, RCL, LTE) are completely submerged in 🔴 HIGH BEARISH MOMENTUM  or 🔴 OVERSOLD  across all three  timeframes. These are toxic assets demonstrating pure institutional abandonment with zero structural floor holding them up. ☠️ 13. Weekly Breakdown Acceleration:   36 shares (31%)  are printing 🔴 HIGH BEARISH MOMENTUM  or 🔴 OVERSOLD  on the Weekly timeframe. This proves the current sell-off is not just a tactical 1-to-3 day liquidity event, but an entrenched, structural multi-week distribution cycle. 🌪️ 14. The "Wait and See" Macro Stasis:   26 shares (22.4%)  sit exactly on ⚪ NEUTRAL  for their Monthly macro anchor. This indicates long-term macro indecision, where assets (like SHP, KRO, FSR, INL) are fully priced for the current rate cycle and require a massive catalyst to tip them into a new secular trend. 🧭 15. The Momentum Disconnect (The Pullback Radar):   28 shares  are printing 🟠 WEAK  or worse on the Daily timeframe while still miraculously holding 🟢 STRONG  on the Monthly (e.g., SBK, ABG, VOD, DSY). This massive cohort represents the ultimate "Buy on Pullback" opportunity, as short-term algorithms flush prices down precisely to long-term institutional support levels. 🎯 16. The "Too Fast" Warning (Weekly Overheating):  Only 8 shares  are flashing 🟢 HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM  or 🟢 OVERBOUGHT  on the Weekly chart (SOL, OMN, GLN, TGA, AFE, CLI, EXX, SOLBE1). A weekly reading this vertically hot historically precedes a multi-week sideways consolidation, signaling these names are actively hostile to new trend-following entries. 🥵 17. Total Macro Breadth Inversion:  If we sum the absolute extremes, only 7 shares  are printing 🟢 OVERBOUGHT  on the Monthly chart, while nearly triple that amount ( 20 shares ) are buried in 🔴 HIGH BEARISH MOMENTUM  or 🔴 OVERSOLD  on the Monthly chart. The macro tail of the market is currently much heavier than the macro head. ⚖️ 18. The Gold Dispersion:  Within the Gold/PGM sector, the technical dispersion is vast. ANG  holds a 🟢 STRONG  Monthly but drifts in ⚪ NEUTRAL  Daily, while SSW  has collapsed into 🔴 HIGH BEARISH MOMENTUM  Weekly. This mathematical split proves the sector is trading strictly on individual cost curves and asset quality, not a broad commodity beta bid. 🪙 19. The Retail Death Spiral:  Out of the 7 shares  printing an absolute 🔴 OVERSOLD  on the Weekly chart, 5 are retail/consumer-facing  (SPP, CLS, TFG, PPH, WHL). The mathematical destruction concentrated here confirms the market has entirely priced out any near-term domestic consumer recovery. 🛒 20. The Alpha Squeeze Cohort:  Exactly 14 shares  are currently classified under the clean "Buy Breakout 🟢" category (where Daily momentum is healthy, but avoids Overbought exhaustion). These highly selective names (like DCP, HCI, KRO, S32) represent the only remaining pockets of low-friction upward mobility on the entire JSE. 🚀 Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Buy at $363.55 or lower Stop-loss: $325.00 Target(s): $415.00 Code: MSFT Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za I'm adding the Price Action Model - take with a 15-minute delayed price. Previous Post: How To Trade Glencore Plc (GLN) Published Sunday 29 March for Monday, 30 March. An existing buy/long idea from 6547c (see chart reference), the share reached our long term target of 9400c (the 200-week SMA). Since then, the upward momentum has continued with the share outperforming it's JSE-listed peers and trading above R120. On the monthly time frame, the share is trading in an 'OVERBOUGHT' range. On the weekly, a 'HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM / APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT' regime is in place while on the daily time frame, a 'STRONG' regime is in place. An upside extension from current levels is likely to place the share in an OVERBOUGHT range on the weekly and monthly time frames and 'APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT on the daily time frame. What's the risk of buying now? Overbought conditions could start to come into play. What's the risk of sell now? Strong upward momentum can remain in place longer than anticipated. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue  and red horizontal lines  on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) : UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Analyst's Price Action Model Prosus N.V. - Weekly Chart Momentum Profile:  The weekly momentum profile exposes a violent, uniform bearish capitulation. The Base Term, Mid Term, Short Term, and Ultra Short Term tiers have all plunged deep into extremely weak and historically oversold territory. This severe downward clustering across the entire momentum suite signals a massive institutional exodus and overwhelming selling pressure. However, the absolute fastest oscillators are beginning to flatten at the zero-bound extreme, hinting at potential seller exhaustion in the immediate term. Structural Analysis & Tactical Bias:  Evaluating the broader macro context, the asset previously engineered a massive structural uptrend, peaking near the ~130,000c macro resistance zone. Within the 10-week window, this distribution phase resolved violently to the downside, fracturing the macro floor and initiating a brutal waterfall decline. Looking at the immediate 3-to-5-week timeframe, the tape bled out relentlessly, carving through multiple psychological floors. Isolating the immediate 1-week timeframe, the asset printed a small-bodied hesitation candle (a doji or spinning top) near ~75,972c, temporarily arresting the vertical free-fall. Given the deeply oversold fast momentum and the catastrophic structural breakdown, the tactical bias leans toward 🔴 Avoid / Waterfall Capitulation , though we are on high alert for a mean-reversion snapback. Key Support & Resistance Levels:  Overhead supply and macro resistance are now firmly established at ~85,000c to ~90,000c, representing recently broken support floors that now act as a massive ceiling containing trapped longs. Immediate structural support sits lower at the ~65,000c historical pivot, marking the next logical liquidity pool and the deeper target for the current flush. Should this major floor give way, deep historical demand lies much lower around ~53,000c to ~55,000c. Next Candle Probability:  The current price action is a textbook manifestation of Scenario 99: 🔴 Waterfall Capitulation (Exhaustion Pause) . The 1-week candle definitively arrested the immediate slide, printing a narrow-range hesitation structure at the lows. While the extreme oversold momentum readings can spark violent intraday relief bounces, the highest structural probability for the next weekly candle is highly volatile, bidirectional chop as the market attempts to find an equilibrium, with a persistent underlying risk of a secondary flush to test the ~65,000c support zone. Primary View Invalidation:  To invalidate this bearish capitulation primary view, buyers must orchestrate a miraculous, high-volume V-shaped short squeeze that immediately arrests the slide and sustains a weekly close back above the ~85,000c breakdown level. This would trap the aggressive short positioning, suggest the massive flush was an anomalous liquidity sweep, and stabilize the broader macro structure for a potential recovery. The Next 10 Days:  Over the next two trading weeks, the asset faces a critical stabilization test as it navigates the immediate fallout of this waterfall decline. Given the extreme oversold state of the fast momentum oscillators, market participants should anticipate highly erratic volatility, where sudden, sharp short-covering relief rallies are entirely plausible but remain structurally suspect. If buyers fail to orchestrate a definitive V-shaped recovery to clear local resistance, these bounces will simply provide fresh liquidity for institutional sellers, likely resulting in a secondary wave of distribution that presses the tape down to definitively test the ~65,000c historical demand zone. Tactical Risk Assessment: Buying vs. Selling What's the risk of buying now?  The primary risk of initiating a new long position at these levels is attempting to catch a falling knife in an active liquidation event. While momentum is historically oversold, a structurally damaged tape can grind lower for weeks or months. By buying prematurely before a confirmed higher-low base is established, you risk getting swept up in secondary algorithmic margin calls if the asset flushes toward the ~65,000c support void. What Can Change?  If institutional buyers aggressively step in to defend the tape at current levels and print a confirmed reversal pattern (such as a high-volume bullish engulfing weekly candle), it would immediately signal that the algorithmic liquidation phase has exhausted itself and a durable macro base is forming. What's the risk of selling now?  The primary risk of selling (whether panicking out of a long or initiating a late speculative short position) is the danger of getting caught in a violent "rubber band" short-squeeze. Because all momentum tiers are pinned at extreme oversold lows, the tape is highly pressurized. Any minor positive catalyst could ignite a rapid, high-velocity relief rally toward the ~85,000c supply wall, which would aggressively liquidate late short sellers and force them to buy back at much higher prices. What Can Change?  If the current hesitation candle fails entirely and the asset suffers a definitive, high-volume weekly close below the recent panic lows, it would confirm that sellers remain in absolute control. This would signal that the anticipated mean-reversion squeeze has been aborted, opening the trap door for a direct continuation of the waterfall decline toward historical demand. Forecast Projection Breakdown:  With fast momentum completely bottomed out and a clear downward expansion pattern cemented on the chart, the forward-looking probability distribution heavily favors a test of lower liquidity pools, though the extreme stretch warrants high vigilance for sudden snap-backs. The Bearish Scenario (55% Probability):  The capitulation continues after a brief pause. Sellers easily slice through the recent lows, initiating a rapid markdown targeting the ~65,000c liquidity pool as structural panic persists. The Base/Neutral Scenario (30% Probability):  The intense selling pressure temporarily exhausts itself. The asset enters a choppy, highly volatile lower-range distribution phase between ~70,000c and ~85,000c as the market attempts to find an equilibrium amid shifting flows. The Bullish Scenario (15% Probability):  The extreme oversold momentum triggers a violent short-covering squeeze. Buyers aggressively absorb the supply and force a rapid upward spike back toward the ~85,000c broken floor, invalidating the immediate free-fall. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue  and red horizontal lines  on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) : UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published on Sunday, 29 March for Monday, 30 March. S&P 500 Index (SPX) Momentum Profile:  The weekly momentum profile reveals a catastrophic and uniform collapse. The Ultra Short Term and Short Term tiers have plunged to absolute zero-bound extremes, indicating maximum historical localized selling pressure and algorithmic capitulation. The Mid Term has dragged deep into weak territory, and the Base Term has now fractured below its neutral band into weakness, confirming that the aggressive sell-off has fundamentally damaged the longer-term macro trend. Structural Analysis & Tactical Bias:  Evaluating the 20-week macro context, the SPX was previously in a sustained, orderly structural uptrend, peaking near ~6,650. Within the 10-week window, the index printed a clear double-top distribution structure, failing to sustain new highs as institutional exhaustion set in. Looking at the 3-to-5-week timeframe, this distribution phase resolved violently to the downside. Isolating the immediate 1-week timeframe, the index printed a devastating red waterfall candle, effortlessly slicing through the 6,500 critical psychological level to close near absolute weekly lows at 6,368.85. Given the total collapse in momentum and the definitive breakdown of the macro floor, the tactical bias is strictly 🔴 Avoid / Waterfall Capitulation . Key Support & Resistance Levels:  Overhead supply and macro resistance are firmly established at ~6,500 to ~6,600, representing the massive broken support zone that now acts as a formidable ceiling containing trapped long positions. Immediate structural support is currently in a state of price discovery, but psychological and historical liquidity points to the ~6,000 to ~6,100 zone as the next viable floor. Major historical demand lies deeper at ~5,700, marking the major breakout consolidation base from late 2024. Next Candle Probability:  The current price action perfectly aligns with Scenario 99: 🔴 Waterfall Capitulation . The 1-week candle is a massive, wide-range downward expansion that completely ignored any intraday buying attempts. Because it closed at the absolute lows with virtually no lower wick, it indicates sellers maintained aggressive, panic-driven control straight into the Friday bell. The highest structural probability for the next weekly candle is continued downside follow-through, targeting lower liquidity pools as margin calls and systematic unwinds persist. Primary View Invalidation:  To invalidate this waterfall capitulation primary view, buyers must orchestrate a miraculous, high-volume V-shaped short squeeze that immediately arrests the slide and sustains a weekly close back above the ~6,500 breakdown level. This would trap the aggressive short positioning, suggest the massive flush was an anomalous liquidity sweep, and stabilize the broader macro structure. Technical Risks & Opportunities: 3 Technical Risks: Cascading Systemic Unwinds:  A continuation below current levels risks triggering further mechanical selling from volatility-targeting funds and negative gamma options positioning, violently accelerating the markdown phase. Momentum Entrenchment:  If the Ultra Short Term and Short Term oscillators remain pinned at the zero-bound extreme without triggering a relief bounce, it signals a structural regime change where buyers have entirely abandoned the tape. Lower High Confirmation:  Any anemic, low-volume relief rally that fails to forcefully clear the 6,500 supply wall will simply provide smart money with premium liquidity to short into, cementing a macro lower-high. 3 Technical Opportunities: Oversold Rubber-Band Snapback:  The extreme downside fracturing and zero-bound momentum tiers create a highly pressurized, stretched environment; stabilization here could trigger a violent, highly tradable V-shaped relief rally. Generational Base Reset:  Should the index flush down to the 5,700 – 6,000 historical demand zone, it would wash out months of excess macro froth and provide a pristine, low-risk institutional accumulation zone for the next cycle. Volatility Contraction Setup:  If the tape can temporarily arrest the slide and begin printing tight inside bars, it sets up a defined-risk structural baseline for a mean-reversion trade once order flow balances. The Next 10 Days:  Over the next two trading weeks, the index faces a critical stabilization test as it navigates the immediate fallout of this waterfall capitulation. Given the zero-bound extremes in the faster momentum tiers, market participants should anticipate highly erratic, bidirectional volatility, where sudden, sharp short-covering relief rallies toward the ~6,500 broken support are entirely plausible but remain structurally suspect. If buyers fail to orchestrate a definitive V-shaped recovery to reclaim that 6,500 ceiling, these "dead-cat" bounces will simply provide fresh liquidity for institutional sellers, likely resulting in a secondary wave of algorithmic distribution that presses the tape down to definitively test the ~6,000 to ~6,100 historical demand zone before a durable macro floor can be established. Forecast Projection Breakdown:  With fast momentum obliterated and a clear downward expansion pattern cemented on the chart, the forward-looking probability distribution heavily favors a test of lower liquidity pools, though the extreme stretch warrants vigilance for sudden snap-backs. The Bearish Scenario (60% Probability):  The capitulation continues unabated. Sellers easily slice through minor psychological barriers, initiating a rapid markdown targeting the ~6,000 to ~6,100 liquidity pool as panic persists. The Base/Neutral Scenario (25% Probability):  The intense selling pressure temporarily exhausts itself. The index enters a choppy, highly volatile lower-range distribution phase between ~6,300 and ~6,500 as the market attempts to find an equilibrium amid shifting flows. The Bullish Scenario (15% Probability):  The extreme oversold momentum triggers a violent short-covering squeeze. Buyers aggressively absorb the supply and force a rapid upward spike back toward the ~6,500 broken floor, invalidating the immediate free-fall. Previous Post (28 October 2025): S&P 500 Index (Monthly Chart Time Frame): Broadly Overbought Conditions Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published Sunday 29 March for Monday, 30 March. Read about our recent ideas on JSE Banking Shares > https://www.unum.capital/post/banks3003 READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue  and red horizontal lines  on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) : UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Published Sunday 29 March for Monday, 30 March. An existing buy/long idea from 6547c (see chart reference), the share reached our long term target of 9400c (the 200-week SMA). Since then, the upward momentum has continued with the share outperforming it's JSE-listed peers and trading above R120. On the monthly time frame, the share is trading in an 'OVERBOUGHT' range. On the weekly, a 'HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM / APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT' regime is in place while on the daily time frame, a 'STRONG' regime is in place. An upside extension from current levels is likely to place the share in an OVERBOUGHT range on the weekly and monthly time frames and 'APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT on the daily time frame. What's the risk of buying now? Overbought conditions could start to come into play. What's the risk of sell now? Strong upward momentum can remain in place longer than anticipated. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue  and red horizontal lines  on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL) : UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION  and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY  for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. If you've been a consumer of our research but have not traded via the Unum Capital trading desk, why not consider making us your trading services provider? To open a trading account and/or move from your existing service provider, mail   tradingdesk@unum.co.za .   Alternatively, Sign Up Here:   https://tradedesk.co/tenant/Unum/signup Recently, we highlighted trading opportunities in 4 JSE Banks as well as publishing on the JSE Banks Index itself. Banks Index Warning (20-February) > https://www.unum.capital/post/banks2002 Banks Momentum Dashboard Warning: A.I Generated (27-Feb) > https://www.unum.capital/post/banks2702 Absa Group: Note Published 22 February - looked for a spike to trigger medium term overbought conditions. The share declined by 17% to it's recent lows. Original Note Published Here > https://www.unum.capital/post/abg2302 Standard Bank Group: Note Published 16 February - looked for a spike to trigger medium term overbought conditions. The share declined by 12% to it's recent lows. Original Note Published Here > https://www.unum.capital/post/sbk1602 Capitec Bank: Note Published 11 February - was approaching structural resistance. The share declined by over 15% to it's recent lows. Original Note Published Here > https://www.unum.capital/post/cpi1102 Nedbank Group: Note Published 26 February - at the time, a 'temperature check' via the price action model highlighted the poor buy/long reward-to-risk. The share declined by over 17% to it's recent lows. The original price action model and updated chart is shown below: Note the 5 to 8 week reading where the probability was for a consolidation or minor retracement . Also note the warning via the 2 to 4 week reading: "Would not enter a buy/long. The reward-to-risk is unattractive". Original Note Published Here > https://www.unum.capital/post/ned2602 If you are keen to know where the next-best buy or sell re-entry ranges are, open an account today. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes March 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rmar2026 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital