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  • Lester Davids

Notable

Updated: Mar 2

To trade, or open a new account, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk:

E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011 384 2923


Research Philosophy: Summary


  • My overall goal is to convey my best interpretation of the most relevant market information in order for you, as a client to: (1) understand the potential opportunities and manage the potential risks and (2) make informed decisions around trading opportunities.

  • All trade insights and ideas are intended to prepare and inform the trader about potentially attractive reward-to-risk opportunities with the aim of helping the client generate cash flow as part of a broader portfolio.

  • My intention is to utilize my insights to assess the 'best probability' and consider the range of outcomes under the potential scenarios.

  • Click here to read the full research philosophy

  • Top Trading Tips: (1) Let The Candle Confirm (Click Here To Read) (2) Failure & Reclaim (Click here To Read) (3) Igniting Bar (Click Here To Read)


Lester Davids

Analyst: Unum Capital

 

➡️ Monday 04-March-2024, 06h30 | Technical Summary: Mid & Large Caps, as of Friday's close.

To view the technical summary, click here => https://www.tradingview.com/x/1Whle8k7/

 

➡️ Monday 04-March-2024, 06h30 | JSE Relative Sector Regimes, as of yesterday’s close. To view the data set click on the following links: Chart #1 | Chart #2 | Chart #3


➡️ Monday 04-March-2024, 06h30 | JSE Relative Sector Ratings, as of Friday’s close.


 

➡️ Monday 04-March-2024, 06h30 | Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 40 Shares By Market Cap. Click here to access the data set => https://www.unum.capital/post/tactical-trading-guide


➡️ Monday 04-March-2024, 06h30 | Strategy Screen | Long Term (5 to 8 weeks): Aggressive buying but early signs of upward momentum possibly slowing. Could pull back to the 8 or 21-EMA. Ticker: ADH    


➡️ Monday 04-March-2024, 06h30 | TRU Truworths | Strong Rebound



➡️ Friday 01-March-2024, 06h30 | Update: DRD Gold - Positive price action yesterday (+4.56%). The move is in line with yesterday’s pre-market reading (highlighted) which was as follows: “Reward-to-risk becoming attractive for a buy/long position”.

 

➡️ Friday 01-March-2024, 06h30 | Update: BAW Barloworld - Received Price Upgrade From Absa To R106. As per yesterday’s pre-market research notes, the share was 1 of 4 names where both the short term and medium term (trading time frames) stated the following: “Reward-to-risk becoming attractive for a buy/long position”. 


➡️ Friday 01-March-2024, 06h30 | DATA POINT OF INTEREST: Top 40 Index Seasonality Over 20-Years (March): Average: +0.56%. Median: -0.08%



➡️ Friday 01-March-2024, 06h30 | JSE Relative Sector Regimes, as of yesterday’s close. To view the data set click on the following links: Chart #1 | Chart #2 | Chart #3


➡️ Friday 01-March-2024, 06h30 | Technical Summary: Mid & Large Caps, as of yesterday's close.

To view the technical summary, click here => https://www.tradingview.com/x/sM3ypNyv/


➡️ Friday 01-March-2024, 06h30 | SLM Sanlam Ltd | Yesterday the group released it’s trading statement for the 12 months ended 31-Dec-2023 where it stated that headline earnings per share would be higher by between 43% to 53% versus the prior period. Judging by the share price, the market responded positively as the share gained +2.7% by the close of trade (near it’s it’s 52-week high). The strength is in line with my comment on Thursday 15 February which considered the share on both an absolute and relative basis (vs the Top 40 Index).  

Click here to view the chart, with comment => https://www.tradingview.com/x/WvPRzk1j/



➡️ Friday 01-March-2024, 06h30 | Sticking with SLM Sanlam, the price action is also in line with yesterday morning’s pre-market reading via the Tactical Trading Guide which looked for a re-test of the 50-day EMA followed by a rebound. See chart + reading below:



➡️ Friday 01-March-2024, 06h30 | Large & Liquid | To view the chart & trading comment, click on the share => | MTN  Group | AGL Anglo American Plc | APN Aspen Pharmacare | BHG BHP Group | SBK Standard Bank


➡️ Friday 01-March-2024, 06h30 | Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 40 Shares By Market Cap. Click here to access the data set => https://www.unum.capital/post/tactical-trading-guide


➡️ Thursday 29 February-2024, 06h30 | Price Action Talking Points | Click Here To View the Commentary


➡️ Thursday 29 February-2024, 06h30 | 4 Shares Which Reflect That The Reward-To-Risk Is Appealing For A Buy/Long Positions (as per 2 time frames I.e. short term & medium term) | These shares are BAW Barloworld, DRD Gold, MKR Montauk Renewables & MTN Group. To confirm these readings, an improving candle structure is required as well as the development of a base in the share price.     

Click here to view the data => https://www.tradingview.com/x/6pTiuNmY/


➡️ Thursday 29 February-2024, 06h30 | TGA Thungela Resources | 3 Daily Candles Worth Noting. Notes/comments on the chart.


➡️ Thursday 29 February-2024, 06h30 | RNI Reinet Investments | Distance: The share is trading 48% above it’s 200-week simple moving average, which is double it’s long term average.

Click here to view the chart => https://www.tradingview.com/x/IWdw0BLQ/


➡️ Thursday 29 February-2024, 06h30 | Technical Summary: Mid & Large Caps, as of yesterday's close.

To view the technical summary, click here => https://www.tradingview.com/x/5aiRjlm2/


➡️ Thursday 29 February-2024, 06h30 | JSE Relative Sector Regimes, as of yesterday’s close. To view the data set click on the following links: Chart #1 | Chart #2 | Chart #3


➡️ Thursday 29 February-2024, 06h30 | Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 40 Shares By Market Cap. Click here to access the data set => https://www.unum.capital/post/tactical-trading-guide


➡️ Wednesday 28 February-2024, 06h30 | Technical Summary: Mid & Large Caps, as of yesterday's close.

To view the technical summary, click here => https://www.tradingview.com/x/lITj3tcX/


➡️ Wednesday 28 February-2024, 06h30 | JSE Relative Sector Regimes, as of yesterday’s close. To view the data set click on the following links: Chart #1 | Chart #2 | Chart #3


➡️ Wednesday 28 February-2024, 06h30 | BVT Bidvest Group | If you extended your look-back period, you’ll notice that the R234 level has been a key demand-supply zone over the medium term. Since December, the share has traded around this level and in recent weeks has started to break below this level. Note that the price is also below it’s (declining) 50-day EMA and below it’s 200-day SMA. These are negative positions from a technical perspective. ‘Event risk’ is on Monday 04 March in the form of earnings being reported to the market. Note: The 200-week is around the R205 level (subject to change as the price action develops.                     


➡️ Wednesday 28 February-2024, 06h30 | SOL Sasol Ltd | The 14-day RSI is at the highest level since 15 November, which is a positive development from a technical standpoint. Yesterday’s share price advanced (+4%) is also in line with my comment published last week Thursday (pre-market) which highlighted the same reading across all three time frames (“Reward-to-risk becoming attractive for a small buy/long position”)             

 

➡️ Wednesday 28 February-2024, 06h30 | CFR Richemont | The negative divergence as per the the 14-day RSI as well as the reading via the Tactical Trading Guide (“Aggressive buying but overbought on lower time frame. Expect consolidation or minor retracement”) ts starting to unfold with the share having weakened on Monday (-0.50%) followed by a further pullback during yesterday’s session (-1.15%). Also note the share having been one of the the most extended versus it’s 75-EMA.              

 

➡️ Wednesday 28 February-2024, 06h30 | TRU Truworths | As discussed and anticipated last week (Friday 23-Feb), the strong move higher to R80 (from R68) could be used as as opportunity to reduce long positions. In addition, the failure to hold the range/previous session highs should be monitored which would signal a loss of upward momentum. We have since seen the share retrace to a low of 7390c, which also exceeds the unfilled gap (20-February).              

 

➡️ Wednesday 28 February-2024, 06h30 | ABG Absa Group | On Monday, the share traded into it’s rising 50-day EMA, followed by a rebound on Tuesday (yesterday). The low was 16307c while the share traded into the high of 16756c. The move is in line with the Tactical Trading Guide which looked at the 50-day EMA as a buy/long re-entry zone. For ultra short term traders, these opportunities can be used to generate cash flow around core positions.                  

Click here to view the chart => https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/x/XEgdyIQ4.png 


➡️ Wednesday 28 February-2024, 06h30 | Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 40 Shares By Market Cap. Click here to access the data set => https://www.unum.capital/post/tactical-trading-guide



➡️ Tuesday 27 February-2024, 11h02 | JSE Top 40 Index | Linear Regression Analysis 21-Days ➡️ Range: (0) Mean [Technical Fair Value] ➡️Range of Price Action Outcomes In This Zone: (1) consolidates in this range or (2) finds buyers on an intraday basis, then clears the range highs (3) finds sellers on an intraday basis, then breaches the range lows. ➡️Trader’s Potential Action In This Range: Look for: (1) Consolidation followed by: (1) failure to hold highs, with strong offers or (2) holding highs, with strong bids. Linear Regression Slope: Down

Click here to view the chart => https://www.tradingview.com/x/cwpSjbVo/


➡️ Tuesday 27 February-2024, 06h30 | Technical Summary: Mid & Large Caps, as of yesterday's close.

To view the technical summary, click here => https://www.tradingview.com/x/KxYRRYWm/


➡️ Tuesday 27 February-2024, 06h30 | JSE Relative Sector Regimes, as of yesterday’s close. To view the data set click on the following links: Chart #1 | Chart #2 | Chart #3


➡️ Tuesday 27 February-2024, 06h30 | CPI Capitec Bank |UPDATE: The resistance range (R2081 to R2110) was tested followed by a pullback. This pullback also coincides with the reading via the Tactical Trading Guide (show on the chart on Thursday pre-market) which looked for a failure to hold the previous session/range highs. 


➡️ Tuesday 27 February-2024, 06h30 | VOD Vodacom Group (Update) | Refer to yesterday’s pre-market comment which highlighted the following: “…positive divergence 14-day RSI & positive crossover MACD” (see 1st extract below). Yesterday the candle structure was positive (confirming the positive signals on the indicators) while the tactical trading guide (highlighted in yellow) is also shown below (2nd extract).




➡️ Tuesday 27 February-2024, 06h30 | MTN Group | Similar to it’s sector peer Vodacom, MTN’s candle structure for yesterday’s session reflected one of potential buying interest. I acknowledge the share having been in a strong downside trend (high bearish momentum) while the lower level previously envisaged have unfolded (see yellow line I.e. potential price path on the chart). The previous swing low has been tested while the 14-day RSI is at it’s highest level since late January. Note: MTN remains a high-risk share.                 


➡️ Tuesday 27 February-2024, 06h30 | SBK Standard Bank | I do my utmost to provide a balanced perspective, specifically with regard to multiple time frames. My communication with clients suggest that there is demand for the Tactical Trading Guide and if you are a short term, active trader, there are always opportunities to generate cash flow around core positions. Yesterday’s pre-market reading for SBK is yet another example of how the reading acted as a guide to the potential price action and opportunity. In short, if the 8-day EMA was breached, then around the 21-EMA would be a range to buy. We saw the share trade at this level which was followed by string buying which saw the share close near the highs of the day.  



➡️ Tuesday 27 February-2024, 06h30 | Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary): Largest 40 Shares By Market Cap. Click here to access the data set => https://www.unum.capital/post/tactical-trading-guide

 


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