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Premium Content > https://www.unum.capital/post/premiumcontent Free Content: June 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjune2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Free Content Note: When published intraday, JSE equity prices are delayed by 15-minutes. Previous Post EOD Tuesday 02 June: BHP Group: All-Time High. What's The Current Reward-To-Risk? Recommended at R418 on 20 June 2025. Now +R750. Based on the Weekly Chart for BHP Group Limited (BHG), the reward-to-risk profile has become increasingly complex as the asset enters a parabolic mark-up phase. The upside reward potential is historically strong 🟩 because the stock is trading in clear "blue sky" territory, entirely unburdened by overhead supply or historical resistance. Conversely, the downside risk is elevating 🟥. The market has accelerated so aggressively that the nearest structural support levels are now significantly below current price action, making the asset vulnerable to sharp, mean-reverting pullbacks even within the context of a primary uptrend. The Last Candle Structure confirms this extreme buying velocity. The current weekly session has formed a massive Bullish Expansion Candle 🟩, opening near its lows and surging to close near its absolute highs with virtually no upper wick. Looking at the Last 5 Candles Structure, we observe a relentless, uninterrupted sequence of bullish advances with expanding ranges, highlighting a total capitulation of sellers. The Last 10 Candles Structure captures the launchpad of this move, showing a decisive breakout from a multi-year consolidation base that immediately transitioned into vertical price discovery 🟩. Zooming out to the Last 3 Months Candle Structure, the asset has experienced an exponential rally, leaving behind a massive technical footprint of sheer institutional demand that has outpaced all recent historical accumulation phases. The trend’s steepness and slope reflect a market that has gone parabolic. The angle of ascent is highly aggressive, estimated at roughly 80 to 85 degrees on the macro timeframe 🟧. While this confirms that the prevailing trend is undeniably bullish 🟩, such vertical slopes on a weekly chart are rarely sustainable in perpetuity without a period of high-volatility digestion or lateral consolidation to allow moving averages to catch up to the price. In terms of the Momentum Profile, the indicators signal a profoundly strong but deeply extended macro trend. The Tactical Momentum is currently classified as HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM / APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT 🟧, reflecting extreme velocity that is nearing the absolute upper bounds of its historical range. Similarly, the Fast Weekly momentum has breached into absolute OVERBOUGHT 🟧 territory, confirming that short-term buyers are paying significant premiums. Moving to the structural timeframe, the Structural Trend momentum is also officially OVERBOUGHT 🟧, a rare condition that underscores the sheer magnitude of this breakout but warns of impending exhaustion. Finally, the Primary Trend momentum has shifted into HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM / APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT 🟩 territory, confirming that the foundational, long-term cycle is exceptionally strong and fully participating in this historic expansion. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Premium Content > https://www.unum.capital/post/premiumcontent Free Content: June 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjune2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Free Content Gold Spot (XAU/USD) [$4,464.76]. 🟥 Structural Breakdown 📉 Macro Markdown ⬇️ Sell on Rally 🟥 ⚖️ Tactically, long positions encounter severe friction as the asset navigates a deep macro correction from its $5,598 all-time high, pressing heavily against the critical $4,370 - $4,400 support shelf. Conversely, short positions must guard against aggressive mean-reversion bounces if this major structural floor holds. 🔭 Forecasting models indicate continued structural vulnerability and downside testing over the 1- to 3-month horizons (🔴), requiring a prolonged period of base-building and volatility compression (🟡) to repair the technical damage. 📊 Driven by a broken momentum profile where the Structural Trend remains firmly locked in a markdown phase, any tactical relief is currently capped by a heavy supply ceiling near $4,620. 🌍 With multi-timeframe distribution evident following the parabolic peak, the preferred strategic approach is to avoid premature accumulation and utilize short-term corrective bounces to reduce exposure or establish well-defined tactical shorts until a definitive macro floor is confirmed. Current Phase: 🔴 Structural Markdown / Support Search Next Best-Probability Phase: 🟡 Volatility Compression / Base Building Analyst Verdict: Markdown Continuation / Sell on Rally. Tactical Risk Assessment: Integrated Confluence Buying & Long Positions Risk for New Buy Entries: Falling Knife Risk. You are looking at an asset trapped in a major corrective descending triangle, hovering dangerously close to the critical $4,370 structural floor. With the Mid Term (Daily) momentum drifting weakly, entering before a confirmed floor is established carries extreme risk of catching a falling knife ahead of a capitulation flush. Risk for Existing Long Positions: Existential Drawdown. The breakdown from higher consolidation zones has transformed former support into heavy overhead resistance. If the immediate $4,370 liquidity pocket fails, positions will be exposed to a swift technical vacuum targeting the $4,000 - $4,100 macro anchor. What Can Change? A high-volume daily reversal session printing a prominent lower shadow directly off the $4,370 shelf, accompanied by a sharp positive hook in short-term momentum, would indicate early institutional absorption and a potential tactical bottom. Selling & Short Positions Risk for New Short Entries: The Mean-Reversion Snapback. While the primary path of least resistance is currently down, shorting directly into a major historical support boundary like $4,370 exposes capital to sudden, low-volume short-covering squeezes designed to reset fast tactical oscillators. Risk for Existing Short Positions: Profit Erosion. Existing short positions from the recent highs are highly profitable. The operational risk is complacency; failing to lock in partial gains near major support risks surrendering substantial unbooked premium during a mean-reversion bounce. What Can Change? A clean, high-volume weekly close below the $4,370 support floor would confirm a markdown continuation, signaling that sell-side gravity remains entirely un-bid. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Premium Content > https://www.unum.capital/post/premiumcontent Free Content: June 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjune2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Free Content Note: When published intraday, JSE equity prices are delayed by 15-minutes. Oceana Group (OCE) Zooming Out READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Premium Content > https://www.unum.capital/post/premiumcontent Free Content: June 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjune2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Free Content Note: When published intraday, JSE equity prices are delayed by 15-minutes. Alphamin Resources (APH) - I'm also here to place share on your radar, to let you know what I'm seeing (in case you missed it of course). READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Premium Content > https://www.unum.capital/post/premiumcontent Free Content: June 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjune2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Free Content Note: When published intraday, JSE equity prices are delayed by 15-minutes. The aggregate price action for ANG indicates a highly vulnerable technical structure in the immediate term. The primary regime across the Mid and Base terms reflects distinct weakness, anchoring the asset in a definitively Bearish 🟥 posture. Across the short and medium-term forward projections, the severe weakness explicitly dictates a hands-off, Neutral ⬜ tactical execution, requiring traders to wait until tangible stabilization materializes on the lower time frames. However, the long-term outlook reveals an underlying steady upward trend that is currently being tested by this lower-timeframe distribution. This overarching structure sets up a conditional Buy on deeper pullback 🔵 scenario, specifically targeting support at or just below the 50-EMA, where a structural reclaim of that level would be required to trigger a definitive rebound buy. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Premium Content > https://www.unum.capital/post/premiumcontent Free Content: June 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjune2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Free Content Time: 19H15 (South African Time) Buy at 15.80 - 16.30 Stop-loss: 14.30 Target: 20.00 Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Premium Content > https://www.unum.capital/post/premiumcontent Free Content: June 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjune2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za SPAR GROUP Friday 29 May: Flash Chart: 🟩Long Term Support / 🟥Very High Risk Spar Group (SPP) "...zooming out, you'll note the share is trading 2008 support levels, which could attractive systematic investors, though the price plunge reflects aggressive selling pressure on the back of a poor market update. Look for a flush lower and potential reclaim..." Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Premium Content > https://www.unum.capital/post/premiumcontent Free Content: June 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjune2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Free Content Deere & Co. The undercut and reclaim can often lead to a short squeeze. Also note the improving price action/candle structure. Buy on pullback $570-$575 Stop-loss: $538 Target: $620 READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes January 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjan2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Invesco AI & Next Gen Software ETF (IGPT) Previous Post (29 July 2025): Global Idea: Invesco AI & Next Gen Software ETF (IGPT); Re-Accelerating Momentum + Base Breakout. Consolidation Expected However Path Likely Higher Over Medium Term. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Premium Content > https://www.unum.capital/post/premiumcontent Free Content: June 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjune2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za S&P 500 Index (SPX500) [7,609.78]. 🟩 Structural Breakout 🟧 Tactical Overheating ⬆️ Buy on Pullback 🟩 ⚖️ Tactically, long positions encounter immediate friction as the daily momentum indicators reach an extended, overbought ceiling, flashing localized signs of near-term exhaustion. Conversely, short positions face severe "steamroller" risk when fading a synchronized, multi-timeframe macro breakout that is clearing key psychological thresholds. 🔭 Forecasting models indicate that near-term volatility spikes or shallow corrective flushes will seamlessly evolve into structural trend continuation, supporting a high-probability 3- to 6-month secular expansion. 📊 Driven by a powerful momentum profile where the Structural Trend and Primary Trend are fully aligned and accelerating upward, the broad-market index has broken cleanly into unmapped blue-sky discovery territory. 🌍 With strong institutional sponsorship visible across all major time horizons, the preferred strategic approach is to aggressively trail protective stops on existing longs and wait to accumulate core exposure on any tactical pullbacks toward the 7,400 structural support shelf. Current Phase: 🟢 Blue Sky Discovery / Parabolic Expansion Next Best-Probability Phase: 🟡 Tactical Reset / Volatility Digestion Analyst Verdict: Trend Continuation / Hold & Trail Stops. Tactical Risk Assessment: Integrated Confluence Buying & Long Positions Risk for New Buy Entries: Parabolic Climax. Initiating fresh long positions directly into a vertical, multi-day acceleration that has confidently cleared 7,500 carries severe immediate risk. With Tactical Momentum (Daily) pinned deeply in its upper bound, entering at the absolute extension leaves capital highly vulnerable to an algorithmic mean-reversion flush aimed at testing the 7,400 breakout shelf and gap-fill zone. Risk for Existing Long Positions: Profit Erosion via Volatility. The primary macro matrix is robustly bullish, but failing to trail stops aggressively near these psychological extremes exposes unbooked premium to violent, low-liquidity shakeouts designed to reset overextended short-term indicators. What Can Change? Continued, heavy index-heavyweight inflows forcing a clean weekly close above the 7,700 level would signal that the macro cycle is entirely overriding tactical gravity, extending the vertical squeeze. Selling & Short Positions Risk for New Short Entries: Steamroller Risk. Attempting to top-tick a broad-market index while the Primary Trend (Monthly) is undergoing a powerful, non-divergent vertical expansion is exceptionally dangerous. Overbought momentum profiles do not automatically function as sell signals during a blue-sky breakout; they can easily remain sustained for extended periods. Risk for Existing Short Positions: Existential Capitulation. Caught shorts are acting as structural fuel for this upward march. Because the intermediate trend has eliminated all visible overhead supply and friction, defending short exposure here subjects capital to uncapped, vertical drawdown. What Can Change? A high-volume distribution tail (such as an intra-day engulfing failure) that violently pushes the index back beneath the 7,400 breakout pivot would signal immediate structural exhaustion, trapping late-stage buyers and validating a deeper mean-reversion move. Previous Post (01 May 2026): S&P 500 Index Bottom Line: I Was Wrong, But The Data Wasn't. THE DATA (PRICE ACTION MODEL): Thus far, the index rebounded by nearly 14%, in line with the price action model (1 to 10 day time frame) which stated that the 'reward-to-risk had become appealing for a buy/long position.' LESTER'S VIEW: The was out of line with my manual view i.e. it did not get down to the buy re-entry range nor did it find resistance at the sell re-entry range. My expectation was for a further decline toward the prior breakout level or a minor rally before a dip toward the next buy re-entry range. Previous Post (Sunday, 28 March): S&P 500 Index: Waterfall Breakdown + Next Best Actionable Areas Published on Sunday, 29 March for Monday, 30 March. S&P 500 Index (SPX) Momentum Profile: The weekly momentum profile reveals a catastrophic and uniform collapse. The Ultra Short Term and Short Term tiers have plunged to absolute zero-bound extremes, indicating maximum historical localized selling pressure and algorithmic capitulation. The Mid Term has dragged deep into weak territory, and the Base Term has now fractured below its neutral band into weakness, confirming that the aggressive sell-off has fundamentally damaged the longer-term macro trend. Structural Analysis & Tactical Bias: Evaluating the 20-week macro context, the SPX was previously in a sustained, orderly structural uptrend, peaking near ~6,650. Within the 10-week window, the index printed a clear double-top distribution structure, failing to sustain new highs as institutional exhaustion set in. Looking at the 3-to-5-week timeframe, this distribution phase resolved violently to the downside. Isolating the immediate 1-week timeframe, the index printed a devastating red waterfall candle, effortlessly slicing through the 6,500 critical psychological level to close near absolute weekly lows at 6,368.85. Given the total collapse in momentum and the definitive breakdown of the macro floor, the tactical bias is strictly 🔴 Avoid / Waterfall Capitulation. Key Support & Resistance Levels: Overhead supply and macro resistance are firmly established at ~6,500 to ~6,600, representing the massive broken support zone that now acts as a formidable ceiling containing trapped long positions. Immediate structural support is currently in a state of price discovery, but psychological and historical liquidity points to the ~6,000 to ~6,100 zone as the next viable floor. Major historical demand lies deeper at ~5,700, marking the major breakout consolidation base from late 2024. Next Candle Probability: The current price action perfectly aligns with Scenario 99: 🔴 Waterfall Capitulation. The 1-week candle is a massive, wide-range downward expansion that completely ignored any intraday buying attempts. Because it closed at the absolute lows with virtually no lower wick, it indicates sellers maintained aggressive, panic-driven control straight into the Friday bell. The highest structural probability for the next weekly candle is continued downside follow-through, targeting lower liquidity pools as margin calls and systematic unwinds persist. Primary View Invalidation: To invalidate this waterfall capitulation primary view, buyers must orchestrate a miraculous, high-volume V-shaped short squeeze that immediately arrests the slide and sustains a weekly close back above the ~6,500 breakdown level. This would trap the aggressive short positioning, suggest the massive flush was an anomalous liquidity sweep, and stabilize the broader macro structure. Technical Risks & Opportunities: 3 Technical Risks: Cascading Systemic Unwinds: A continuation below current levels risks triggering further mechanical selling from volatility-targeting funds and negative gamma options positioning, violently accelerating the markdown phase. Momentum Entrenchment: If the Ultra Short Term and Short Term oscillators remain pinned at the zero-bound extreme without triggering a relief bounce, it signals a structural regime change where buyers have entirely abandoned the tape. Lower High Confirmation: Any anemic, low-volume relief rally that fails to forcefully clear the 6,500 supply wall will simply provide smart money with premium liquidity to short into, cementing a macro lower-high. 3 Technical Opportunities: Oversold Rubber-Band Snapback: The extreme downside fracturing and zero-bound momentum tiers create a highly pressurized, stretched environment; stabilization here could trigger a violent, highly tradable V-shaped relief rally. Generational Base Reset: Should the index flush down to the 5,700 – 6,000 historical demand zone, it would wash out months of excess macro froth and provide a pristine, low-risk institutional accumulation zone for the next cycle. Volatility Contraction Setup: If the tape can temporarily arrest the slide and begin printing tight inside bars, it sets up a defined-risk structural baseline for a mean-reversion trade once order flow balances. The Next 10 Days: Over the next two trading weeks, the index faces a critical stabilization test as it navigates the immediate fallout of this waterfall capitulation. Given the zero-bound extremes in the faster momentum tiers, market participants should anticipate highly erratic, bidirectional volatility, where sudden, sharp short-covering relief rallies toward the ~6,500 broken support are entirely plausible but remain structurally suspect. If buyers fail to orchestrate a definitive V-shaped recovery to reclaim that 6,500 ceiling, these "dead-cat" bounces will simply provide fresh liquidity for institutional sellers, likely resulting in a secondary wave of algorithmic distribution that presses the tape down to definitively test the ~6,000 to ~6,100 historical demand zone before a durable macro floor can be established. Forecast Projection Breakdown: With fast momentum obliterated and a clear downward expansion pattern cemented on the chart, the forward-looking probability distribution heavily favors a test of lower liquidity pools, though the extreme stretch warrants vigilance for sudden snap-backs. The Bearish Scenario (60% Probability): The capitulation continues unabated. Sellers easily slice through minor psychological barriers, initiating a rapid markdown targeting the ~6,000 to ~6,100 liquidity pool as panic persists. The Base/Neutral Scenario (25% Probability): The intense selling pressure temporarily exhausts itself. The index enters a choppy, highly volatile lower-range distribution phase between ~6,300 and ~6,500 as the market attempts to find an equilibrium amid shifting flows. The Bullish Scenario (15% Probability): The extreme oversold momentum triggers a violent short-covering squeeze. Buyers aggressively absorb the supply and force a rapid upward spike back toward the ~6,500 broken floor, invalidating the immediate free-fall. Previous Post (28 October 2025): S&P 500 Index (Monthly Chart Time Frame): Broadly Overbought Conditions Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Premium Content > https://www.unum.capital/post/premiumcontent Free Content: June 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjune2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za VanEck Steel ETF Previous Post (27 September): VanEck Steel ETF: Multi-Year Base Looking To Break Out (See Monthly Chart) Previous Post (11 July): Global Idea: ArcelorMittal (ADR); Strong Price Action Within Weekly Consolidation Last Price: $34.41 Target: $53.00 Stop-loss: $25.12 Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Premium Content > https://www.unum.capital/post/premiumcontent Free Content: June 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjune2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (Friday 29 May) "...On the 21-week EMA for the first time since the start of the war....look for lower levels followed by a potential rebound. See price action model..." Previous Post (08 April): Brent Crude Oil: Now 18% Lower; Pullback In Line With Commentary Analysis of Brent Crude Oil Published: Monday, 06 April. The Oil Spike. Link > https://www.unum.capital/post/oil0803 Current Phase: 🟡 High-Level Consolidation Next Best-Probability Phase: 🟡 High-Level Chop / Volatility Digestion Momentum Profile: The multi-timeframe momentum profile reveals a highly pressurized tape that has stretched too far, too fast, and is now actively seeking equilibrium. Monthly (Macro): The entire momentum suite is exploding vertically from a deep structural base, thrusting straight into extreme overbought territory. This confirms a massive, overarching regime shift and a dominant secular bull phase. Weekly (Structural): The momentum suite reached extreme overbought clustering, but the Ultra Short Term oscillator has just executed a violent, vertical crash down toward the neutral midline. This is a definitive warning sign of structural exhaustion and aggressive institutional profit-taking. Daily (Tactical): The fast daily oscillators have completely cooled off from their overbought extremes, slicing bearishly through the neutral midline and actively dragging the slower Mid Term and Base Term tiers lower. Synthesis: We are witnessing a classic parabolic digestion. The macro (Monthly) trend is relentlessly bullish, but the structural (Weekly) trend has exhausted its immediate fuel, and the tactical (Daily) momentum has already reset to the downside. This divergence dictates that a high-level consolidation or a deeper corrective pullback is required to balance the order book. Structural Analysis & Tactical Bias: Evaluating the broader macro context, the asset recently engineered a breathtaking vertical breakout, launching from the ~$80.00 accumulation base and surging parabolically to print a peak near ~$111.00. Isolating the immediate daily price action, the ascent has forcefully stalled. The tape is currently printing a high-level distribution/consolidation block just below the recent highs, characterized by topping tails and erratic intraday chop, currently trading near ~$107.47. Given the violent downward hook in weekly momentum and the cooling daily tape, the tactical bias leans heavily toward 🟡 High-Level Consolidation / Mean-Reversion Pullback. Key Support & Resistance Levels: Immediate overhead supply and local resistance sit tightly at the recent peak near ~$111.00 to ~$112.00. If this level is eventually cleared, the ultimate macro target and historical resistance ceiling rests near ~$120.00. Immediate structural support is established at the psychological and local pivot zone of ~$100.00. Because the recent rally was a vertical "blue-sky" surge, a massive structural air pocket exists below; if the $100.00 floor gives way, the next robust structural base lies much deeper in the ~$90.00 liquidity zone. Next Candle Probability: The current price action aligns with Scenario 44: 🟡 High-Level Chop / Volatility Digestion. The daily structure shows a total loss of upward velocity as the tape moves sideways-to-lower. The highest probability outcome for the next sequence of daily candles is continued range-bound chop or a grinding drift lower as algorithmic momentum forces the weekly oscillators out of their extreme overbought state. Primary View Invalidation: To invalidate this corrective/consolidation primary view, buyers must completely ignore the extreme overbought conditions and the crashing weekly momentum. They would need to orchestrate a massive, high-volume breakout that definitively clears and holds above the ~$112.00 local ceiling. This would signal a rare, runaway parabolic squeeze continuation toward $120.00. The Next 10 Days: Over the next two trading weeks, the asset faces a critical test of its high-level flag structure. Given that daily momentum is actively cooling while the weekly tape screams exhaustion, market participants should anticipate erratic, bidirectional price action heavily skewed toward testing local floors. The tape will likely oscillate violently as early longs take profits. If the ~$100.00 local floor cracks, expect a rapid algorithmic flush to definitively test the ~$90.00 structural base. Tactical Risk Assessment: Buying vs. Selling What's the risk of buying now? The primary risk of initiating a new long position at ~$107.47 is that you are chasing a vertically overextended weekly/monthly chart precisely as structural momentum is crashing. Because the ascent left a massive air pocket beneath it, buying here exposes you to the risk of a severe mean-reversion drawdown toward the ~$100.00 or ~$90.00 support voids before a true macro higher-low is formed. What Can Change? If institutional buyers aggressively defend the ~$100.00 level, absorb all overhead supply, and force a high-volume daily close above ~$112.00, it validates the parabolic strength and significantly lowers the risk of an immediate deep pullback. What's the risk of selling now? The primary risk of selling (whether taking profits or initiating a speculative short position) is stepping directly in front of a confirmed macro regime shift. While the weekly chart is exhausted and a pullback is logically favored, the underlying monthly trend is aggressively bullish. In commodity markets, overbought squeezes can remain irrational longer than anticipated. What Can Change? If the daily price structure definitively slices through the ~$100.00 local support with expanding volume, it mechanically confirms the localized exhaustion thesis, signaling that gravity has taken control and a deeper structural pullback to $90.00 is underway. Timeframe Confluence & Forecasting (WCL Model) Applying the Weighted Confluence Logic to the current momentum structure: 1-Month Forecast (🔴 Bearish / Pullback): Driven by 60% Daily / 30% Weekly / 10% Monthly. The daily oscillators are drifting into weakness, heavily supported by the violent downward hook on the weekly chart. We project lower prices over the next 30 days as the asset executes a necessary mean-reversion structural correction toward the ~$100.00 or ~$90.00 levels to digest the vertical rally. 3-Month Forecast (🟡 Base/Neutral): Driven by 20% Daily / 50% Weekly / 30% Monthly. The intense overbought conditions on the macro timeframes will require significant time to reset. We project highly volatile, structural chop and base-building roughly between ~$90.00 and ~$110.00 as the tape exhausts the sellers and builds a durable institutional foundation. 6-Month Forecast (🟢 Bullish): Driven by 10% Daily / 20% Weekly / 70% Monthly. The monthly timeframe dominates. The massive surge from the $80.00 base confirmed a secular regime shift. Once the 3-month corrective digestion completes, we project higher prices six months out as the primary secular bull trend resumes its assault on the ~$120.00 macro resistance. Forecast Projection Breakdown: With daily and weekly momentum cooling to digest extreme macro overbought conditions, the forward-looking probability distribution heavily favors sideways consolidation or a healthy mean-reverting pullback. The Base/Neutral Scenario (45% Probability): The tape manages to hold the high-level flag. The asset enters a choppy distribution/accumulation phase strictly between ~$100.00 and ~$111.00 to allow the slower moving averages to catch up to the price. The Bearish/Pullback Scenario (35% Probability): Parabolic gravity takes hold. Sellers break the $100.00 floor, initiating a sharp, healthy structural retracement targeting the ~$90.00 liquidity pool to build a true macro higher-low. The Bullish Scenario (20% Probability): The macro momentum is simply unstoppable. Buyers absorb all profit-taking without needing a deep pullback, squeezing the price relentlessly through the $112.00 ceiling to continue the vertical advance toward $120.00. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital