Search this site

Research Notes November 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rnov2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za High Five: 5 KEY POINTS TO KNOW ABOUT Platinum (Daily View) Intermediate Swing Breakdown:  The 7-Day Mid Term trend has officially dipped into the "Weak" tier. This is a critical signal indicating that the selling pressure over the last week has been severe enough to damage the intermediate daily structure, elevating the risk of a deeper correction. Fast Momentum Stabilization:  In contrast to the 7-Day weakness, the Ultra-Short Term (2-Day) indicator has hooked upwards back into standard "Neutral" territory. This divergence suggests immediate selling exhaustion and a potential tactical attempt to find a short-term floor near current levels. Base Trend under Duress:  The 14-Day Base Trend is holding precariously in the lower half of the "Neutral" zone. It is sloping downwards, signaling that the core daily bullish trend is fading and is at risk of joining the Mid Term trend in bearish territory if $1500 fails. Lower High Structure:  The daily price action is defined by a clear series of lower highs descending from the $1600 peak. Until this bearish market structure is broken by a close above a previous daily swing high (approx. $1560), rallies are suspect. Critical Support Confluence:  The asset is currently testing a vital support zone between $1500 and $1530. This area represents the "last line of defense" for the daily bull trend before a likely flush towards major structural breakout levels near $1450. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes November 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rnov2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za High Five: 5 KEY POINTS TO NOTE FOR Silver (XAGUSD) Parabolic Rally Cooling:  Silver has experienced an explosive vertical rally, recently tagging the $49 level. The current price action represents a necessary cooling phase after an unsustainable parabolic advance. Acute Momentum Crash:  The fastest trend indicator (2-Week) has collapsed from extreme "Overbought" levels (>95) directly into the "Weak" tier (currently 29.29). This signals intense immediate profit-taking and a potential short-term local top. Structural Integrity Intact:  Despite the sharp short-term pullback, the Base Term (14-Week) trend remains in "High Bullish Momentum" territory (above 70). The long-term bull market structure is not currently threatened by this consolidation. Bull Market Divergence:  A classic bull market divergence is visible: fast indicators are oversold or neutral, while slow indicators remain highly bullish. This typically indicates a "buy the dip" environment rather than a major trend reversal. Volatility Warning:  The extreme spread between the fastest and slowest momentum indicators indicates highly volatile trading conditions ahead as the market attempts to find equilibrium price after the recent surge. The metal is in a consolidation phase following a massive breakout rally. Core Thesis Silver is undergoing an acute routine correction within a powerful primary uptrend. The "Ultra-Volatile" short-term indicators have fully reset from historic highs, suggesting the most aggressive phase of selling may be nearing exhaustion, even as the longer-term trends remain robustly bullish. Comprehensive Summary The momentum profile for Silver highlights a market digesting massive recent gains. The Ultra Short Term trend has officially broken down into the WEAK tier, confirming immediate bearish pressure. However, the Mid Term is holding STRONG, and firmly entrenched HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM in the Base Term suggests that large-scale institutional demand remains present. The market is likely searching for a higher low to serve as a launchpad for an eventual test of the psychological $50 level. Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis The Ultra Short Term trend is WEAK and sloping Sharply Downwards, reflecting intense immediate profit-taking. The Short Term trend is NEUTRAL and sloping Sharply Downwards, indicating the pullback has neutralized the aggressive 3-week buying pressure. The Mid Term trend is STRONG and sloping Downwards, showing that the intermediate uptrend is cooling but remains technically solid. The Base Term trend is in HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM and is sloping Gently Downwards, confirming the core long-term bull trend is dominant despite recent volatility. Breakouts, Breakdowns, and Reversals (Recent Range Focus) The asset is currently pulling back after failing to hold above $49. Bullish Continuation:  A weekly close back above $49.10 is needed to signal the end of this correction and open the path to $50+. Bearish Reversal Risk:  A sustained close below the $45.00 - $46.00 support zone could signal a deeper correction is needed to wash out late leverage. Key Actionable Zones Immediate Resistance  is at the recent cycle high of ~$49.10. Major Psychological Resistance  is at $50.00. Immediate Support  is likely to be found near previous consolidation tops around ~$46.00. Critical Structural Support  for the medium-term trend is significantly lower, near the breakout zones of $35.00, though a test that deep is not currently indicated by the Base trend. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes November 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rnov2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (Wednesday 05 November) Momentum Analysis: FirstRand Ltd Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes November 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rnov2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za High Five: Key Points To Note Dominant Bearish Structure:  Thungela remains trapped in a severe long-term downtrend, having lost significant value from its all-time highs. The primary structural indicators remain deeply entrenched in "Weak" territory, confirming bears are still in ultimate control. Aggressive Mean Reversion:  A sharp counter-trend bounce is actively underway. The fastest momentum indicator has violently swung from oversold conditions straight into the "Strong" tier, signaling an acute short-covering rally or aggressive speculative buying at these lows. Momentum Disconnect:  A massive divergence currently exists. While the ultra-short-term trend is flashing bullish signals, the mid and base-term trends remain bearish. This conflict typifies a volatile "bear market rally" rather than a sustainable recovery at this stage. Base Trend Weakness:  Crucially, the 14-Week Base trend remains stuck in the "Weak" tier (below 42). Until this core indicator can at least reclaim "Neutral" territory, any upside price action must be viewed with skepticism as a likely selling opportunity for longer-term players. Critical Resistance Test:  Price is approaching the top of its recent consolidation range. A failure to break decisively above the 8500 - 9000c zone will likely see the dominant downtrend resume and test recent lows. The stock is undergoing a volatile mean-reversion bounce within the context of a firmly established long-term bear market. Core Thesis TGA is experiencing a classic "oversold bounce" within a structural downtrend. The extreme speed of the recovery in the Ultra Short Term momentum suggests aggressive short-covering. However, the lack of support from Mid and Base term trends defines this strictly as a counter-trend trading opportunity for now, rather than a confirmed long-term investment reversal. The thesis remains cautiously bearish on a structural level until major overhead resistance is cleared. Comprehensive Summary The momentum profile for TGA is highly fractured. The long-term structure is damaged, evidenced by the Base Term trend languishing in the WEAK tier. However, short-term dynamics have shifted violently bullish, likely due to an absence of sellers at extreme lows rather than sustained institutional accumulation. This creates a high-risk, high-volatility environment where short-term gains can be rapid but are vulnerable to sudden reversals as they meet established long-term supply zones. Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis The Ultra Short Term trend has surged into the STRONG tier and is sloping Sharply Upwards, reflecting the acute immediate buying pressure. The Short Term trend has recovered into the NEUTRAL zone and is sloping Upwards, confirming the tactical bounce is gaining some traction. The Mid Term trend remains in the WEAK tier, though it is currently sloping Flat to slightly Up, indicating stabilization but not recovery. The Base Term trend is also in the WEAK tier and sloping Flat, confirming that the long-term bearish inertia has not yet been overcome. Breakouts, Breakdowns, and Reversals (Recent Range Focus) The stock is currently attempting a tactical reversal from deep lows. Bullish Reversal Potential:  A sustained weekly close above 9000c is needed to confirm a larger intermediate-term bottom and potentially target the 10000c psychological level. Bearish Continuation Risk:  Rejection near current levels (approx. 8000 - 8500c) would likely result in a "dead cat bounce" scenario, leading to a retest of the 7000c lows. Key Actionable Zones Immediate Resistance  is firmly established between 8500 and 9000c. Structural Resistance  is higher at the 10000c round number. Critical Support  is located at the recent cycle lows around 6800 - 7200c; a break below this would signal the next leg down in the major bear trend. Weekly Chart Daily Chart Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes November 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rnov2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes November 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rnov2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes November 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rnov2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes November 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rnov2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes November 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rnov2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za High Five Dominant Bullish Structure:  The JSE Top 40 remains in a powerful long-term uptrend, with the price recently achieving all-time highs. The longest-term trend indicators are still deeply entrenched in highly bullish territory, confirming the overarching strength of the market. Short-Term Cooling:  A healthy consolidation is underway. The fastest trend indicators have sharply corrected from "Overbought" levels down into "Neutral" and "Strong" zones, reflecting necessary profit-taking after the recent vertical rally. Resilient Base Momentum:  Despite the short-term pullback, the Base Term trend remains firmly in the "High Bullish Momentum" tier. This indicates that the core structural demand for SA equities remains intact and has not yet been compromised by recent selling. Momentum Divergence:  A distinct divergence has formed between the fast, correcting short-term trends and the robust, elevated long-term trends. This suggests the current price action is likely a consolidation pattern within a larger bull market rather than a major reversal. Critical Support Hold:  The index is currently holding above key psychological breakout levels (near 100,000). Maintaining this floor is essential to keep the immediate bullish breakout structure alive and set the stage for the next leg higher. The index is currently in a consolidation phase following a relentless rally to new all-time highs. While short-term indicators are cooling off aggressively, the long-term structural momentum remains decisively bullish. Current Price: 102,681 Core Thesis The JSE Top 40 is experiencing a classic bull market consolidation. The aggressive cooling of the Ultra Short Term momentum from extreme highs is a healthy development, allowing the market to digest recent gains. The thesis remains bullish as long as the Base Term momentum indicators sustain their position in the upper bullish tiers. The current pullback is viewed as a potential re-entry opportunity within an ongoing structural uptrend, provided key support near the 100,000 psychological level holds firm. Comprehensive Summary The J200's momentum profile shows a market transitioning from an unsustainable vertical rally into a sustainable high-level consolidation. The Ultra Short Term trend has rapidly dropped into the NEUTRAL zone, signaling an immediate pause in aggressive buying. However, the Mid Term and Base Term trends remain in the HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM tier. This alignment signals that while immediate upside may be capped as the market catches its breath, the primary trend is unequivocally upward, and deep pullbacks are likely to find strong institutional support. Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis The Ultra Short Term trend is currently NEUTRAL and sloping Downwards, reflecting the immediate cooling of price action from the recent peaks. The Short Term trend is firmly STRONG but sloping Downwards, indicating that while the aggressive buy pressure has eased, sellers have not seized control. The Mid Term trend remains in HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM, though it is now sloping Downwards, suggesting the intermediate trend is entering a consolidation phase. The Base Term trend is also in HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM and is actively sloping Gently Downwards, showing minor cooling at the core level but retaining immense structural strength. Breakouts, Breakdowns, and Reversals (Recent Range Focus) The index has recently broken out to new all-time highs and is now testing the sustainability of this breakout. Bullish Continuation:  A weekly close back above the recent established high near 104,500 would signal the end of this brief consolidation and a resumption of the primary uptrend. Bearish Reversal Risk:  A sustained break back below the 98,000 breakout level would indicate a "failed breakout" scenario, likely dragging the fast momentum indicators into bearish territory and risking a deeper correction. Key Actionable Zones The primary focus is on managing the current consolidation. Immediate Resistance  is located at the all-time high, approximately 104,800. Psychological Support  is strong at the 100,000 round number. Critical Structural Support  is found at previous resistance-turned-support near 98,000. A defense of the 100,000 - 98,000 zone is critical to maintaining the highly bullish long-term thesis. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes November 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rnov2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes November 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rnov2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Extreme Bullish Trend:  The NASDAQ 100 is in a very strong, well-established long-term uptrend , trading near all-time highs. The primary trend remains powerfully bullish. Short-Term Exhaustion/Neutrality:  The Ultra Short-Term (50.35) and Short-Term (45.94) momentum indicators have pulled back sharply from the Overbought tiers and are currently sitting in the NEUTRAL  zone. This signals that the immediate buying pressure has exhausted, and the market is entering a phase of consolidation or sideways movement . Mid-Term Structural Strength:  The Mid-Term (53.56) and Base Term (57.79) momentum are both firmly in the upper half of the NEUTRAL  tier, confirming the structural integrity  of the longer-term uptrend remains solid. No Structural Risk Yet:  No momentum indicator is approaching the WEAK or OVERSOLD  tiers. The overall profile suggests the market is merely taking a healthy pause  rather than signaling a risk of a significant reversal. Continuation Setup:  The market is poised for a bullish continuation  once the short-term consolidation is complete. A move by the Ultra Short-Term RSI back above 65 would signal the return of strong directional momentum and a likely challenge of the recent highs.   The index is currently undergoing a minor, healthy pullback from its recent all-time highs, with all short-term momentum indicators resetting back toward the midline. Current Price: 25679   Core Thesis The aggressive short-term buying pressure has exhausted, causing the Ultra Short-Term and Short-Term momentum indicators to revert to the NEUTRAL  zone. This action represents a healthy consolidation phase within a dominant long-term uptrend. The thesis favors a bullish continuation  once the short-term momentum indicators begin to turn upwards again, signaling the market is ready to challenge new highs. Comprehensive Summary The NAS100's momentum profile confirms a strong underlying bullish structure  despite the minor current correction. Both the Ultra Short-Term  and Short-Term  momentum indicators have completed their pullback from the Overbought tiers, now stabilizing in the NEUTRAL zone. This neutralization of short-term momentum is constructive, absorbing prior gains without triggering significant selling. The Mid-Term  and Base Term  trends remain firmly positioned in the upper half of the NEUTRAL tier, showing that the long-term structural integrity is fully intact and the path of least resistance remains to the upside. Multi-Timeframe Momentum Analysis The momentum is resetting across the shortest timeframes while holding structural strength: Ultra Short-Term Momentum:  Currently at 50.35. This is firmly in the NEUTRAL tier, having dropped aggressively from the Overbought extreme. Sloping sideways , indicating immediate buying pressure is fully paused. Short-Term Momentum:  Currently at 45.94. This is in the NEUTRAL  tier, showing a balanced, non-directional bias. Sloping sideways , reinforcing the consolidation phase. Mid-Term Momentum:  Currently at 53.56. This is in the NEUTRAL  tier, indicating a balanced structural trend. Sloping sideways , confirming intermediate stability. Base Term Momentum (14-Period):  Currently at 57.79. This is firmly in the NEUTRAL tier and is positioned near the STRONG  boundary. Sloping sideways , confirming the dominant long-term trend remains structurally sound. Breakouts, Breakdowns, and Reversals (Recent Range Focus) The index is consolidating beneath its recent highs and preparing for the next directional move. Immediate Pressure (Consolidation):  The neutral momentum across all timeframes suggests the index will likely remain in a tight consolidation range over the immediate term, with the midline of the RSI acting as an anchor. Bullish Continuation Confirmation:  A definitive break and close above the recent high 25800 would signal the end of consolidation and the start of a new, aggressive push toward 26,000.00. Bearish Breakdown Reversal (Structural):  A clear and sustained close below the nearest strong support 24,500 would be required to confirm a structural breakdown, though this is currently a low-probability event given the strength of the long-term trend. Key Actionable Zones The actionable zones focus on capturing the next bullish push and defining the key support structure for the current consolidation. The Breakout Resistance  is the immediate ceiling that must be overcome, located between 25,800.00 - 26,000.00, which would confirm the continuation of the dominant uptrend. Conversely, the Consolidation Support  between 25200 - 25500 is the anticipated area for the index to stabilize during this short-term pause, offering a potential high-probability entry for long positions. Finally, the Base Structural Support  at 24500 represents the major structural low of the recent consolidation and must hold to maintain the overall bullish thesis. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes November 2025 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rnov2025 Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tr adingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (05 November): 🎥Watch: Sibanye Stillwater - Actionable Areas For Short Term Traders Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital