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Research Notes For 23 to 27 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2327june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post: Trading Clicks (13 June): Sharp Downside Reversal Off Sell Range (R404 to R365); Next-Best Probabilities. See circled area. Previous Post (15 May): Trading Clicks: bearish Reversal Off Sell Range: Update: Bearish reversal off sell range. Now trading 37807c vs 40500c Previous Post: Our recent buy long idea on Clicks worked out well for clients who latched onto the opportunity. Driven by a manual as well as an automated view (price action model), the share traded into the buy re-entry range (mid-point R315) which was followed by a sharp rebound to above R404 (+28%) . Scroll (further) down to view the original post. On Monday we set our sell re-entry range at 40513c to 41401c. Yesterday, the share continued it's rally, reaching a high of 40481c before retracing to test a low of 38593c. It's a pity that the share didn't trade fully into the sell re-entry range as the high was just shy of that. That's markets for you!!! Previous Post (Monday, 21 April): Click(s) Here To Take Profit If you bought Clicks in the actionable area, then you are in the money by 6000c. The share traded into the next best-probability buy range which was followed by a sharp rally. Recently, clients of Unum Capital were alerted to a trading opportunity in Clicks. The link to the original post is as follows: https://www.unum.capital/post/click-quality Our thesis at the time was driven by the appealing (pending) reward-to-risk, supported the price action model model which stated the following: Short Term (approx. 1 to 10 days): "The reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position" Medium Term (approx. 2 to 4 weeks): "Aggressive selling underway. Wait for the lower time frames to stabilize". Long Term (approx. 5 to 8 weeks): "The share has been weak, with selling pressure however, there is a probability of a small rebound" Where to from here? The share closed the last session in ' HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM / APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT ' regime. This means that it has experienced a strong rally over the short term. Where is the next (best probability) level to buy, and why? Should the price immediately retrace from current levels, the rising 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) as well as the 75-day exponential moving average (EMA) is the next best-probability re-accumulation range. The year-to-date VWAP is in a similar range. BLUE/TURQUOISE DASHED LINES ------- Where is the next (best probability) level to sell, and why? Should the price continue to immediately advance from current levels, the share is likely to face resistance (1) at or just above the prior swing highs (best probability R405 to R412) , (2) in addition, the share will likely be extended to the upside versus both it's 8-day and 21-day exponential moving averages (EMA). It is also likely to be trading in a short term overbought range. RED DASHED LINES ------- Zooming out further, R411 to R427 is an extreme range, from both a technical and fundamental valuation perspective. Previous Post (end of day, 18 March): Clicks Group: Quality Company Approaching Buy Range + Alert To Model Readings. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 23 to 27 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2327june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Updated Chart Shown Below. As discussed on Thursday 19 June: 'Trading Sasol: Short Term Overbought (50-Week Resistance)'. The current price action model reading is as follows: Previous Post (Thursday 19 June): Trading Sasol: Short Term Overbought (50-Week Resistance) + Price Action Probabilities Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 23 to 27 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2327june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 23 to 27 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2327june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Strong Bull Trend Nearing Exhaustion Shell PLC (SHEL) is currently in a strong bullish regime, with technical analysis confirming that buyers are firmly in control across all meaningful timeframes. The stock is attempting to advance and has demonstrated consistently positive momentum. However, the recent aggressive rally has pushed the stock into a short-term state that is "Approaching Overbought."  This condition, characterized by high bullish momentum on the 7-day trend, increases the probability of a pullback or consolidation phase. The model's consistent message across all timeframes is to avoid chasing the stock at these extended price levels. Instead, the primary strategy is one of patience, waiting for a healthy consolidation or a dip to key short-term moving averages (the 8 or 21-day EMA) to find a more favorable, lower-risk entry point to participate in the prevailing uptrend. This is a classic "buy the dip" scenario, not a "buy the breakout" setup. 2. Visualizing the Bullish Setup The technical outlook points to a primary uptrend that is currently extended. The optimal bullish setup is not to buy at current levels, but rather to wait for a price retracement. Primary Scenario:  The price pulls back from its current highs toward the key short-term support zone, which is defined by the 8-day and 21-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Entry Trigger:  A long position would be triggered if the stock finds support in this zone and then demonstrates renewed strength, confirming that buyers are re-engaging after the pullback. Target:  The subsequent move would be expected to target and potentially exceed the prior highs. 3. Energy Sector: Fundamental Catalysts The performance of Shell is heavily influenced by the fundamental drivers affecting the broader energy sector. 3.1. Bullish Catalysts (Tailwinds): Strong Energy Prices:  Elevated oil and gas prices, which are currently supported by disciplined OPEC+ supply management and a significant geopolitical risk premium, directly boost revenue and profitability for major producers like Shell. Shareholder Returns:  Strong free cash flow, generated from high energy prices, allows the company to execute a robust capital return program. This includes aggressive share buybacks, which support the share price, and a reliable, growing dividend. 3.2. Bearish Catalysts (Headwinds): Global Economic Slowdown:  A major recession would lead to a significant decrease in global energy demand. This "demand destruction" would put severe downward pressure on oil and gas prices, directly impacting Shell's revenues and margins. Energy Transition Risk:  The long-term, secular global shift toward renewable energy sources and away from fossil fuels poses a structural headwind to the traditional oil and gas business model. This requires significant, ongoing investment in new technologies and creates uncertainty around the long-term value of legacy assets. 4. Dissecting the Price Action Model The technical outlook for Shell is consistent across multiple timeframes, pointing to a strong trend that is due for a pause. Short-Term (1-10 Days):  The model indicates that buyers are in control, but there are signs of weakness on the lowest time frames. This suggests that a pullback is likely. The recommended strategy is to look for this pullback to the 8 or 21-EMA to establish a potential "buy range." Medium-Term (2-4 Weeks):  The view is of a steady upward trend. However, there is a possibility of sideways consolidation around the current levels as the market takes time to absorb the recent significant gains before the next move higher. Long-Term (5-8 Weeks):  The stock is attempting to advance within an established bullish regime. The model advises using pullbacks to the prior session's close or the 8-EMA as an "accumulation zone" for long-term positions. 5. Price Action Probabilities Based on the current technical readings, the probabilities for the next major price move are assessed as follows: Pullback then Continuation (65% Probability):  This is the primary and most likely scenario. The "Approaching Overbought" condition resolves through a healthy and orderly pullback to the 8/21-EMA support zone. This retracement alleviates the overbought condition and provides a lower-risk entry point for the next leg higher, in line with the primary uptrend. Sideways Consolidation (25% Probability):  The stock moves sideways in a choppy range, absorbing the recent aggressive buying through time rather than through a significant price drop. The uptrend would be expected to continue after this consolidation phase. Deeper Correction (10% Probability):  This is the least likely scenario. In this case, the failure to hold the highs triggers a more significant correction that breaks below the key short-term moving average support levels, signaling a potential trend change. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 23 to 27 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2327june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za ARK Autonomous Tech & Robotics ETF (ARKQ) Coiling for a Major Move After a multi-year consolidation period, the ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ) is now pressing up against a major resistance level around $90.26 . This prolonged basing pattern is technically significant; it often represents a slow transfer of shares from weaker, short-term holders to stronger, long-term investors who are accumulating a position. Such patterns can store a tremendous amount of kinetic energy. A decisive breakout above the ~$90 resistance level would not just be a technical event; it would signal a fundamental shift in market perception, potentially releasing that pent-up energy and initiating a new, sustained uptrend. The current status is "Breakout Pending,"  as the ETF consolidates just below this critical level. The primary strategy is to wait for confirmation of the breakout before initiating new long positions, as false breakouts are a risk. 2. Visualizing the Breakout Setup The price chart of ARKQ shows a long consolidation period where the price has been building a "cause" (the base) for a new advance. The key levels to watch are: Key Resistance (~$90.26):  This level represents the ceiling of the multi-year consolidation range. A decisive weekly or monthly close above this price is the required trigger for a bullish breakout. Support Zone (~$71.18):  This level represents the floor of the recent basing pattern. A break below this support would invalidate the bullish thesis and suggest a continuation of the consolidation or a potential bearish reversal. 3. Top Holdings & Thematic Drivers The ETF's performance is driven by its holdings in companies at the forefront of disruptive innovation. Key holdings and their themes include: Tesla (TSLA):  A leader in electric vehicles, battery technology, and, crucially for this ETF, the development of full self-driving (FSD) capabilities and the Optimus humanoid robot. Trimble Inc. (TRMB):  Provides high-precision positioning technology (GPS) for agriculture, construction, and transportation, enabling the automation and increased efficiency of core industrial sectors. Kratos Defense (KTOS):  A key player in the development of unmanned aerial systems (drones) and other autonomous technologies for modern defense and security applications. 4. Fundamental Themes Driving the Sector 4.1. Bullish Catalysts (Tailwinds): AI & Automation Adoption:  The explosion in AI and machine learning is creating unprecedented demand for robotics and industrial automation to improve efficiency, lower costs, and enhance capabilities across all industries. Secular Growth Trends:  The ETF provides focused exposure to long-term, high-growth themes such as autonomous vehicles, 3D printing, space exploration, and advanced manufacturing, which are still in their early innings. Reshoring & Supply Chain Modernization:  A global trend towards reshoring manufacturing requires massive investment in new, highly automated factories, which is a direct tailwind for the robotics industry. 4.2. Bearish Catalysts (Headwinds): High Valuation & Rate Sensitivity:  Many holdings are high-growth, long-duration assets with premium valuations. This makes them particularly sensitive to changes in interest rates; higher rates can significantly compress their valuation multiples. Economic Cyclicality:  Corporate spending on large-scale automation and robotics projects is often cyclical. In a significant economic downturn, companies may delay or cancel these capital-intensive projects, impacting the sector's growth. Regulatory & Ethical Hurdles:  The rapid advancement of AI and autonomous systems faces growing ethical questions and the increasing likelihood of government regulation, which could slow down deployment and create compliance costs. 5. Price Action Probabilities Bullish Breakout (65% Probability):  The primary scenario. The ETF musters enough buying pressure to close decisively above the ~$90.26 resistance, signaling the start of a new major uptrend with significant upside potential. Continued Consolidation (25% Probability):  The price fails to break out on its initial attempt and continues to consolidate sideways below resistance, building more cause for a future, potentially more powerful, move. Failed Breakout & Reversal (10% Probability):  The alternative scenario. The breakout attempt fails decisively, and the price reverses lower, breaking below the prior support zone around $71.18, which would be a major bearish signal. 6. The Tactical Playbook A simplified, three-step decision model for trading the potential breakout: WATCH:  Monitor the price action at the key resistance level of ~$90.26.  It is advisable to avoid entering a trade while the ETF is below this level. CONFIRM:  A true breakout requires a decisive close  (preferably on a weekly basis) above resistance, ideally accompanied by an increase in trading volume to confirm buyer conviction. MANAGE RISK:  After a successful breakout, the old resistance level (~$90.26) becomes the new technical support. A stop-loss could be placed below this level to manage risk on a long position. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 23 to 27 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2327june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Trapped in a Weak Consolidation Growthpoint Properties (GRT) is currently in a state of technical indecision, trapped within a sideways consolidation phase. This lack of direction is occurring within a broader "Weak" medium-term regime, suggesting that the current price action is more likely a pause in an ongoing downtrend rather than a genuine bottoming process. The long-term outlook is Neutral, explicitly lacking a directional bias. This reinforces the view that there is no clear technical edge for either bulls or bears at this moment. A new, sustainable trend will only be triggered by a decisive breakout from the current trading range. Until such a resolution occurs, the most prudent strategy is to remain on the sidelines and await a clearer signal from the market. 2. Visualizing the Current Trading Range The stock is caught between two well-defined technical levels, which must be monitored closely: Resistance (Range High):  This level acts as the ceiling for the current consolidation. A decisive and high-volume breakout above this level is required to signal a bullish recovery. Support (Range Low):  This level acts as the floor. A breakdown below this support would confirm the continuation of the broader downtrend and likely lead to further downside. The price action between these two boundaries is expected to remain choppy and directionless. 3. Property Sector: Fundamental Catalysts The performance of Growthpoint is heavily influenced by the fundamental drivers affecting the broader South African property sector. 3.1. Bullish Catalysts (Tailwinds): Potential Interest Rate Cuts:  The listed property sector is highly sensitive to interest rates due to its capital-intensive nature. Any future rate cuts by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) would be a significant positive catalyst, as this would lower borrowing costs and tend to increase property valuations. Diversified Portfolio:  Growthpoint's exposure to a diverse portfolio of high-quality retail, industrial, and international assets provides a degree of resilience and a stable, diversified rental income stream that can weather weakness in any single sub-sector. 3.2. Bearish Catalysts (Headwinds): Weak Domestic Economy:  This remains the primary headwind. South Africa's low-growth environment leads to higher property vacancy rates and limits the ability to implement rental escalations, particularly in the office and retail sectors. High Interest Rates:  The current "higher for longer" interest rate environment increases the cost of debt, which is a major expense for property companies. This directly and negatively impacts earnings and cash flow. 4. Dissecting the Price Action Model The technical outlook for GRT is consistent across multiple timeframes, painting a picture of weakness and indecision: Short-Term (1-10 Days):  The trend is rated "Very Weak."  The model advises waiting for the price to stabilize on the lower time frames before any bullish position can be considered. A recovery buy/long is only triggered on a confirmed break of the current range high on strong buying volume. Medium-Term (2-4 Weeks):  The trend is described as "Weak In A Consolidation Phase."  There is no clear directional signal at present, reinforcing the need for patience. Long-Term (5-8 Weeks):  The outlook "Lacks Directional Bias."  The model indicates that a break of the current range is required to trigger the next sustainable directional move. 5. Price Action Probabilities Based on the current technical readings, the probabilities for the next major move are assessed as follows: Continued Range-Bound Action (60% Probability):  The most likely scenario. The stock remains trapped between support and resistance, reflecting ongoing market indecision and a balance of power between buyers and sellers. Bearish Breakdown (25% Probability):  The broader weak trend reasserts itself, causing the price to break decisively below the current range support. This would signal a continuation of the downtrend and likely lead to further downside. Bullish Breakout (15% Probability):  The least likely scenario. A significant influx of buying interest emerges, pushing the price decisively above the range high. This would invalidate the bearish thesis and trigger a recovery. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 23 to 27 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2327june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Well done short sellers. Previous Post (Monday 09 June): FSR Running 30%. Potential Resistance Into The 200-Day SMA. The share has rebounded sharply, with today's high being 30% above the buy range of 5800c to 6000c. The price action model reading as at the time of analysis is as follows: Here's a breakdown of the current price action: The 7-day trend is indicated as "High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought," while the 14-day trend is "Bullish." Comparison: Both the short-term (7-day) and slightly longer short-term (14-day) trends indicate upward momentum ("High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought" and "Bullish" respectively). This suggests a consistent buying pressure across these timeframes. The "Bullish" 14-day trend reinforces the "High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought" 7-day trend, indicating that the recent strength is part of a broader upward movement. Potential Trading Approach for FSR: Short Term  (Approximately Next 1 to 10 Trading Days): The model notes, "Attempting To Advance Whilst In A Bullish Regime-If It Pulls Back Use The Prior Session Close or 8-EMA As An Accumulation Zone." Approach : While the stock is attempting to advance in a bullish regime, if it pulls back, use the prior session's close or the 8-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as an accumulation zone. Medium Term  (Approximately Next 2 to 4 Weeks): The model indicates "In or Commencing Upward Trend However Strongly Consider The Potential Failure To Hold Prior Session Range Highs Which Will Create A Tactical Short-Sell Opportunity." Approach : The medium term suggests that the stock is in or commencing an upward trend. However, strongly consider the potential for failure to hold prior session range highs, as this would create a tactical short-sell opportunity. Long Term  (Approximately Next 5 to 8 Weeks): The model states, "In or Commencing Upward Trend However Strongly Consider The Potential Failure To Hold Prior Session Range Highs Which Will Create A Tactical Short-Sell Opportunity." Approach : The long-term perspective also indicates that the stock is in or commencing an upward trend. Similar to the medium term, it's crucial to strongly consider the potential for failure to hold prior session range highs, as this would create a tactical short-sell opportunity. Overall Trading Considerations for FSR: Consistent bullish momentum: Both short and slightly longer short-term trends are bullish, supporting upward price action. Short-term caution: Despite the buying pressure, the model advises using pullbacks to the prior session's close or 8-EMA as accumulation zones. Medium-term and Long-term caution: Both the medium and long-term perspectives highlight a significant caution: the potential failure to hold prior session range highs, which would create a tactical short-sell opportunity. In summary , for FSR, the current view is bullish across short to long terms, with strong momentum in the short term. However, traders should be acutely aware of the potential for failure to hold prior session range highs, as this is identified as a key trigger for tactical short-sell opportunities across all timeframes beyond the very short term. Previous Post: Actionable Areas: FirsrRand (Published Saturday 05 April for Monday 07 April) Original Post: https://www.unum.capital/post/fsraction FirstRand (FSR) is down 29% from it's Sept-2024 peak, with the share trading near it's June lows. It's not inconceivable that the share could trade down at the 5800c to 6000c range , which is a medium term support range. At current levels, oversold conditions are already present which reflects aggressive selling pressure however, also raises the probability of an ultra short term rebound . Last close: 6293c FSR Daily Chart as of the close on Friday 04 April Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 09 to 13 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r0913june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (10 June): Trading Reinet Investments: A Familiar Consolidation In February at R474, we discussed RNI, highlighting a massive base while also stating that the share has room to run. The share recently crossed above R500 and has developed a consolidation below the highs which appears similar to the one seen in 2023 (see yellow circled area). A break above resistance opens the upper boundary of the channel (~R550) as a target. Amidst today's red, RNI, with it's relative strength caught my attention: Massive multi-month base, with a short term bull flag. Not extended, room to run. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 23 to 27 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2327june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za Previous Post (15 May): USD/ZAR: Reward-To-Risk Becoming Attractive For A Small Buy/Long Position This is a further on the previous post which considered the potential for a small rebound. We saw this occur as the pair traded from R18.20 to R18.46. As also previously noted, the level down to APPROXIMATELY R17.99 was a key level of interest. Previous Post (06 May) USD/ZAR: Approaching Oversold + Probability of a Small Rebound Please see the price action model + the chart below. {Chart: Full Screen} The slide below is from our research report 'The Sum of the Charts' for Monday, 05 May 2025. Previous Post (Monday, 05 May): The Rand Has Advanced In Line With The Model Reading In 07 April, we published a note, highlighting the poor buy/long reward-to-risk with the best probability for the price action model over the subsequent 2 to 4 weeks being a consolidation or minor retracement. We have since seen the pair retrace sharply, from R19.38 to R18.26. Previous Post: USD/ZAR: Ultra Short Term Sees Poor Buy/Long Reward-To-Risk Current price action model reading + updated chart. We saw the share temporarily hold the the R18.23 to R18.36 zone before trading lower, then reclaiming it for a rally to the current multi-week highs nears R19.44. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Trade FX: USD/ZAR  with Unum Capital. To get started, e-mail lester@unum.co.za This is a further on the previous post which considered the potential for a small rebound. We saw this occur as the pair traded from R18.20 to R18.46. As also previously noted, the level down to APPROXIMATELY R17.99 was a key level of interest. Previous Post (06 May) USD/ZAR: Approaching Oversold + Probability of a Small Rebound Please see the price action model + the chart below. {Chart: Full Screen} The slide below is from our research report 'The Sum of the Charts' for Monday, 05 May 2025. Previous Post (Monday, 05 May): The Rand Has Advanced In Line With The Model Reading In 07 April, we published a note, highlighting the poor buy/long reward-to-risk with the best probability for the price action model over the subsequent 2 to 4 weeks being a consolidation or minor retracement. We have since seen the pair retrace sharply, from R19.38 to R18.26. Previous Post: USD/ZAR: Ultra Short Term Sees Poor Buy/Long Reward-To-Risk Current price action model reading + updated chart. We saw the share temporarily hold the the R18.23 to R18.36 zone before trading lower, then reclaiming it for a rally to the current multi-week highs nears R19.44. Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 23 to 27 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2327june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The South African banking sector, as represented by its four largest constituents, is undergoing a period of uniform short-term weakness. A sharp, sector-wide pullback has shifted the immediate technical outlook to "Very Weak," necessitating a cautious, patient approach from investors and traders. However, beneath this surface-level weakness, a clear divergence in the longer-term technical health of the individual banks is apparent. Two distinct narratives are emerging: Constructive Pullback:  For market leaders like Capitec and Standard Bank, the current downturn appears to be a healthy and constructive pullback within a broader, established uptrend. Significant Weakness:  For the laggards, Nedbank and FirstRand, the price action is more concerning, showing signs of deeper technical damage that may prove more challenging to repair. The primary strategy across the sector is to wait for the current wave of selling to abate. Once stabilization occurs, the most prudent course of action would be to focus on the strongest names (Capitec, Standard Bank) for potential "buy the dip" opportunities, as they are best positioned to lead any subsequent recovery. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

Research Notes For 23 to 27 June > https://www.unum.capital/post/r2327june Trade   Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email   tradingdesk@unum.co.za The share traded right in the middle of the R720 to R730 range with a print of R725 before rebounding to a high of R994 as of today, Monday 23 June. Previous Post (Saturday, 05 April, 07h43) Actionable Area: Prosus N.V Prosus N.V (PRX).  The share has retreated from the upper boundary of it's rising channel, encountering distribution over the last 4 weeks. The 75-day EMA and 21-week EMA continue to trend up, however, the deteriorating candle structure does not rule out a move toward the lower boundary of the channel, which is in line with the rising 200-day SMA as well as the 50-week EMA. This comes in at approximately 72000c to 73000c. This range is subject to change as the price action and news flow develops. Last Close: 81094c   Lester Davids Analyst: Unum Capital