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  • Satrix Resources: Outlook, Probabilities & Risks

    +30 Take Profit Opportunities: Our Capabilities > https://www.unum.capital/post/capabilities Free Content: July 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjuly2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za NOTE: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes Published for the week commencing Monday, 06 July 2026. TECHNICAL CONDITION: STRUCTURAL CORRECTIVE PHASE / LOCAL RELIEF BOUNCE ATTEMPT CATEGORY: BEARISH MEAN-REVERSION / SUPPORT DEFENSE WATCH TREND STATUS Daily Trend: Short-Term Downtrend / Tactical Relief Consolidation Weekly Trend: Intermediate Corrective Phase / Weak Momentum Monthly Trend: Secular Bull Market / Macro Mean-Reversion Pullback Primary Action: Exercise Caution on New Longs / Defer Aggressive Accumulation CORE THESIS: Significant Cyclical Correction Testing Long-Term Macro Demand The Satrix RESI (Resource ETF) is undergoing a deep intermediate-term correction following a spectacular secular bull run that peaked in late 2025 near the 18,000 level. Driven by cyclical commodity headwinds, the asset has experienced a persistent downward expansion over the first half of 2026, clearing previous support structures to search for a definitive macro floor. It is currently trading near 11,623 (with the daily tactical close resting at 11,488). The momentum profile across multiple timeframes highlights a mature corrective regime that is trying to stabilize. While the long-term secular trend remains valid as an ultimate backstop, intermediate weekly momentum has degraded into a weak posture, confirming that sellers retain control of the medium-term narrative. Shorter-term tactical engines are exhibiting a local relief bounce, attempting to transition into a neutral defensive base. While the severe downside velocity is beginning to taper off, entering large new structural positions here remains premature until a clear higher low or an accumulation breakout pattern forms. The strategic priority centers on defending remaining capital, sizing down tactical long exposures, and waiting for intermediate trend confirmation. Verdict: AVOID CHASING SHORT-TERM RELIEF BOUNCES / EXERCISE PATIENCE ON CORE ACCUMULATION / PROTECT LONG-TERM CAPITAL UNTIL WEEKLY MOMENTUM REBOUNDS. STRUCTURAL PROFILE (Based on Core Momentum Data) DAILY (Tactical): Short-Term Trend ➔ NEUTRAL RELIEF CONSOLIDATION WEEKLY (Intermediate): Structural Trend ➔ WEAK INTERMEDIATE DOWN-TREND MONTHLY (Secular): Macro Cycle ➔ NEUTRAL MACRO MEAN-REVERSION Profile Alignment: The timeframe stack is unaligned and presents a challenging environment for structural bulls. The Monthly chart shows a standard macro pullback toward long-term trend support, holding a neutral structural posture after shedding significant overextended premium. However, the Weekly chart acts as the primary headwind, with momentum trapped in a weak configuration characterized by successive lower highs and lower lows. The Daily chart offers a minor silver lining, stabilizing into a neutral configuration as a local short-term oversold bounce cushions the immediate decline. STRUCTURAL TIME FRAME ANALYSIS Daily Momentum (The Tactical Engine) The Daily framework reflects an ongoing short-term downtrend that has paused into a horizontal defensive block. After a sharp flush toward the recent low of 11,450, a minor influx of short-term buying has pulled the asset slightly higher to close the session at 11,488. This stabilization has allowed daily momentum to step up into a Neutral regime. While this signifies a temporary cessation of intense liquidation pressure, it remains a high-level consolidation within a broader down-structure rather than an absolute trend reversal. Weekly Expansion (The Structural Driver) The Weekly setup outlines a textbook intermediate corrective cycle. The descent from the 2025 cyclical highs has been continuous and heavy, with weekly momentum locked inside the Weak category. Institutional distribution has dominated the medium-term landscape, and every technical rally over the past two quarters has been aggressively met with overhead supply. Until weekly momentum can register a sustained turn back into a neutral or strong configuration, intermediate pullbacks are highly vulnerable to failure. Monthly Volatility (The Secular Anchor) The Monthly perspective illustrates the broader cyclical horizon of the JSE resources basket. Despite the painful drawdown experienced throughout 2026, the long-term chart shows that the asset is interacting with a multi-year structural support cluster between 10,500 and 11,500. This structural cooling off has successfully pushed secular momentum back down into a perfectly balanced Neutral posture. This macro reset is necessary to flush out excess leverage, creating a clean environment for a future long-term cyclical base. INTERACTION VERDICT — Support Defense Watch: "The macro engine has successfully cooled down to a neutral posture, landing directly on major long-term structural support. However, intermediate weekly momentum is still weak, signaling that the downward structural drift isn't fully resolved. Short-term daily neutral bounces should be viewed cautiously as tactical relief until the weekly chart prints a structural higher low." CATEGORIZATION & STRATEGY Daily Timeframe (Tactical) Primary Category: NEUTRAL RELIEF CONSOLIDATION Impending Transition: WEAK REGIME RESUMPTION OR STRONG BOUNCE CONFIRMATION Strategic Overlay: TRADE SHORT-TERM RANGES WITH EXTREMELY TIGHT RISK CONTROLS Weekly Timeframe (Intermediate) Primary Category: WEAK INTERMEDIATE DOWN-TREND Impending Transition: HIGH BEARISH MOMENTUM ACCELERATION OR NEUTRAL BASE FORMATION Strategic Overlay: DEFER LARGE-SCALE BUCKET ACCUMULATION Monthly Timeframe (Secular) Primary Category: NEUTRAL MACRO MEAN-REVERSION Impending Transition: STRONG SECULAR TREND RE-IGNITION OR DEEPER CYCLE BREAKDOWN Strategic Overlay: HOLD CORE HISTORICAL LOW EXPOSURES / FOCUS ON VALUE SELECTIVITY STRATEGIC INTERPRETATIONS BY TIMEFRAME TACTICAL (Next 1 to 3 Weeks): "The Daily chart is carving out a fragile floor above 11,450 while dealing with localized overhead resistance near 12,000. Aggressive mean-reversion traders might look to play a tight range bounce, but long-term players should avoid scaling in heavily here. A failure to hold 11,450 on a daily close will likely open the door for a rapid sweep to deeper support." Action: Monitor Local Lows (Defensive Stance) INTERMEDIATE (Next 3 to 9 Months): "The Weekly chart is the critical guidepost, and it remains firmly unsupportive of an aggressive bull thesis. Do not try to catch the falling knife while intermediate momentum is categorized as Weak. Let the asset build a rounding floor, and wait until weekly momentum shifts back into a neutral posture before increasing resource sector allocations." Action: Stand Aside on New Core Capital SECULAR (Next 1 to 3 Years): "The Monthly framework confirms that the multi-year resource cycle is retesting major long-term inflection zones. Long-term investors who positioned at the origin of the 2020 macro bottoms should continue to hold their core exposure comfortably, but hold back aggressive lump-sum capital injections until the macro base matures." Action: Maintain Structural Longs / Defer Lump Sums KEY RISKS TO THESIS The Capitulation Flush (Downside Acceleration) Scenario: The ongoing daily consolidation fails to attract sufficient institutional backing. Sellers breach the immediate 11,450–10,702 safety zone, triggering a rapid capitulation drop down to the 9,500–10,000 long-term macro target before finding value. Impact: Early breakout buyers get trapped in an extended, painful drawdown. Emphasizes why trailing stops and capital preservation are non-negotiable. The Dead Cat Bounce (Bull Trap) Scenario: A short-term supply squeeze drives price action quickly back toward 12,500. However, because weekly momentum remains structurally weak, the rally fails to establish a higher high, exhausts new buyers, and rolls over into another aggressive liquidation wave. Impact: Requires tactical participants to strictly avoid buying late-stage daily extensions and to treat early counter-trend rallies as liquidation windows. DECISION LOGIC Current State: "Weak Intermediate Trend with Local Tactical Support Defense" Question: Has the Weekly trend shown a structural higher low or a clear push back into a neutral momentum regime? Yes (Weekly momentum prints a definitive positive shift and price clears intermediate range resistance) ➔ BEGIN ACCUMULATING CORE LONG POSITIONS No, but holding steady (Price continues to chop sideways, carving out a long-term bottoming tail) ➔ HOLD EXISTING EXPOSURE & MONITOR SECULAR FLOORS No, price breaks below short-term support (Decisive daily close below recent multi-month lows) ➔ STAND ASIDE / CONSERVE CASH FOR DEEPER SECULAR VALUE DESTINATIONS PRICE PROJECTIONS: FORWARD MODELING BULL CASE ("Base Formation & Rebound") — Target ~13,500 – 14,000 | Probability: 35% The current structural support band holds firm. The daily neutral consolidation turns out to be a structural bottoming pattern, prompting institutional accumulation that slowly turns weekly momentum back to neutral and sparks a recovery leg. BASE CASE ("Extended Bottoming Process") — Target ~11,000 – 12,500 | Probability: 50% Price continues an extended, messy sideways grind across both daily and weekly timeframes. This lengthy consolidation is required to exhaust remaining sellers and slowly build a high-conviction structural floor over the coming months. BEAR CASE ("Macro Trend Breakdown") — Target ~9,500 | Probability: 15% A broader commodities liquidation breaks the multi-year macro support shelf. The asset enters a deep cyclical capitulation, invalidating the immediate recovery thesis and extending the structural bear cycle. SCENARIO PLANNING Protecting Core Positions: If you are holding historical long-term allocations from much lower entry thresholds, look to adjust your structural protective stops below the major secular safety levels. Allow the asset breathing room to find its cyclical floor, but do not allow a macro structural breakdown to erase long-term profits. Managing New Entries: Strictly avoid chasing green daily sessions. In a weak intermediate framework, optimal execution requires extreme patience—either buying verified tests of major historical demand floors with highly disciplined positioning or waiting for the weekly trend structure to turn positive. EXECUTION PROTOCOL PRIMARY: Maintain an ultra-defensive posture, hold current core long-term allocations with wide trailing risk profiles, and defer major new long allocations until intermediate momentum trends improve. Step 1: Do not initiate any aggressive counter-trend long positions with full sizing. Fighting an intermediate trend with embedded weak momentum across the weekly frame is an inefficient use of trading capital. Step 2: For tactical relief trades, wait for clear intra-range daily demand confirmations near 11,450 and size down significantly, using strict trailing stops immediately below local lows. Step 3: For institutional scale-ins, remain entirely patient. Allow the multi-month resource consolidation process to play out fully, conserving buying power until the technical data confirms a structural turn. CONCLUSION The Satrix RESI is showing an unaligned technical profile, where a powerful long-term secular bull market is undergoing a serious intermediate-term cyclical correction. The Monthly frame has completed a helpful mean-reversion move into a Neutral regime, bringing the asset into contact with major long-term historical demand zones. However, because Weekly momentum remains structurally stuck in a Weak posture, the near-term environment continues to favor sellers on intermediate timelines. While the Daily chart is attempting to assemble a short-term neutral cushion, market participants should avoid over-interpreting minor relief rallies. Maintain a highly disciplined, patient strategy—comfortably hold long-term core allocations, but allow the intermediate structural bottoming process to complete its development before aggressively committing fresh long-term capital. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • ⚠️Sector Risks: 🟥 Exhaustion and Mean Reversion (The Powerhouses)

    +30 Take Profit Opportunities: Our Capabilities > https://www.unum.capital/post/capabilities Free Content: July 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjuly2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za NOTE: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes Analyzing momentum requires understanding that trends can exhaust, reverse, or trap investors. Based on the principle that the shorter timeframe is the most reactive leading indicator, here are the core risks associated with positioning into each category: 🟥 1. Exhaustion and Mean Reversion (The Powerhouses) Affected Sectors: Banks, Telecoms The Risk: These sectors have massive medium-term (Overbought) and long-term (High Bullish) backing, but entering them now carries a high risk of buying at a cyclical top. Because they are already flagged as Overbought on the medium timeframe, they are highly vulnerable to rapid profit-taking. What to watch: If the short-term momentum drops from Strong down to Neutral or Weak, it signals that exhaustion is beginning to pull down the longer-term horizons. JSE Banks Relative To JSE Top 40 Index JSE Telecoms Relative To JSE Top 40 Index Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • ⚠️Sector Risks: 🟥The Bull Trap / False Breakout (The Shifters)

    +30 Take Profit Opportunities: Our Capabilities > https://www.unum.capital/post/capabilities Free Content: July 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjuly2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za NOTE: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes Analyzing momentum requires understanding that trends can exhaust, reverse, or trap investors. Based on the principle that the shorter timeframe is the most reactive leading indicator, here are the core risks associated with positioning into each category: 🟥 2. The Bull Trap / False Breakout (The Shifters) Affected Sectors: Consumer Discretionary The Risk: Consumer Discretionary looks highly attractive because the short-term and medium-term momentum is High Bullish / Approaching Overbought. However, the long-term trend is still firmly Weak. The core risk here is a bull trap—where short-term reactive noise creates the illusion of a recovery, only for the overarching long-term downward pressure to resume and crush the rally. What to watch: If the short-term momentum fails to hold High Bullish and quickly slips back to Neutral or Weak, the structural long-term decline has won. JSE Consumer Discretionary Relative JSE Top 40 Index Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • 🥇JSE Sector Leaderboard + Momentum Tracker

    +30 Take Profit Opportunities: Our Capabilities > https://www.unum.capital/post/capabilities Free Content: July 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjuly2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za NOTE: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes Short-Term Trajectory Tracker Tracking short-term momentum path: Jun 19 → Jun 23 → Jun 26 → Jun 30 → Jul 03 Cons Disc: Strong → Strong → Strong → High Bullish → High Bullish (New Apex Leader) Hospitals: Strong → Neutral → Strong → High Bullish → High Bullish (Surging Inflows) Banks: Overbought → High Bullish → High Bullish → High Bullish → Strong (Healthy Pacing) Insurers: High Bullish → Strong → Strong → Strong → Strong (Consolidating Gains) Telecoms: Strong → Neutral → Strong → Strong → Strong (Steady Structural Bid) Gold Miners: Weak → Weak → Neutral → Neutral → Strong (Defensive Safe-Haven Rotation) Luxury Goods: High Bullish → Strong → High Bullish → Strong → Neutral (Short-Term Exhaustion) Div. Miners: Weak → Weak → Weak → Neutral → Neutral (Stabilizing Post-Correction) Platinum Miners: Weak → Weak → Neutral → Weak → Neutral (Lacking Catalysts) Cons Staples: Strong → Neutral → Neutral → Neutral → Neutral (Rotational Outflows) Paper & Pulp: Neutral → Weak → Weak → Weak → Neutral (Selling Pressure Paused) Technology: Neutral → Weak → Weak → Neutral → Weak (Renewed Breakdown) Chemicals: Neutral → Neutral → Weak → Weak → Weak (Deteriorating Near-Term) Coal Miners: Neutral → Weak → Weak → High Bearish → High Bearish (Total Capitulation) Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • South African (JSE) Risk & Sentiment Index

    +30 Take Profit Opportunities: Our Capabilities > https://www.unum.capital/post/capabilities Free Content: July 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjuly2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za NOTE: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes Published for the week commencing Monday, 06 July 2026. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • British American Tobacco

    +30 Take Profit Opportunities: Our Capabilities > https://www.unum.capital/post/capabilities Free Content: July 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjuly2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za NOTE: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes Published for the week commencing Monday, 06 July 2026. TECHNICAL CONDITION: STRUCTURAL UPTREND / SECULAR BREAKOUT CONTINUATION CATEGORY: BULLISH / ACCUMULATION RANGE WATCH TREND STATUS Daily Trend: Neutral Consolidation / Range Chop Weekly Trend: Structural Uptrend / Neutral Momentum Pause Monthly Trend: Macro Breakout / Strong Bullish Expansion Primary Action: Hold Core Positions / Accumulate on Lower-Timeframe Support CORE THESIS: Secular Bull Market Consolidating Within an Intermediate Range British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) remains locked in a powerful, multi-year secular advance on the macro frame. After forming a significant structural base throughout 2023 and early 2024 near the 53,000 level, the asset embarked on a steady upward continuation, clearing historical resistance areas to trade firmly near the psychological 100,000 mark (closing at 99,900). However, while the long-term secular trend is perfectly aligned to the upside, the shorter-term momentum profiles indicate a well-deserved period of consolidation. Both the Daily and Weekly momentum structures have settled into a Neutral posture, reflecting a healthy balancing of supply and demand after the recent multi-month rally peaked near 109,000. Rather than indicating structural weakness, this sideways digest absorbs overhead resistance and prevents the asset from becoming unsustainably overextended. The strategic focus remains firmly on holding core positions, avoiding over-trading the mid-range chop, and looking to add exposure on shallow pullbacks to structural support or upon a clean breakout above local range boundaries. Verdict: COMFORTABLY HOLD EXISTING LONG POSITIONS / ACCUMULATE ON STRUCTURAL SUPPORT / AVOID INITIATING AGGRESSIVE SHORTS AGAINST A STRONG SECULAR TREND. READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Approaching Multi-Year Polarity Range at R648 to R685....Take Note

    +30 Take Profit Opportunities: Our Capabilities > https://www.unum.capital/post/capabilities Free Content: July 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjuly2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za NOTE: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes Prosus N.V (PRX) READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • Capitec Bank: The Probabilities From Current Levels + Bull, Base & Bear Case

    +30 Take Profit Opportunities: Our Capabilities > https://www.unum.capital/post/capabilities Free Content: July 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjuly2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za NOTE: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • 🟩The Model Gave Us A Double Buy Trigger. Now +12.5% Higher.

    +30 Take Profit Opportunities: Our Capabilities > https://www.unum.capital/post/capabilities Free Content: July 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjuly2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za NOTE: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes The share traded just a few cents shy of the R515 (-R495) buy range with the low being R516.68 on the day. The share reversed immediately and is now higher by 12.55% with a high of R596.99 this morning (at the time of writing i.e. 09h29am). Previous Post (24 June):💡🟩Early Buy Trigger. Lower Levels Expected Before Tactical Rebound (Higher Than Average Risk Idea) Provisional Buy Re-Entry : R515 to R495 Stop-loss: R460 Target: Open READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • 🟥🟩🟧 JSE Sector Momentum Dashboard

    +30 Take Profit Opportunities: Our Capabilities > https://www.unum.capital/post/capabilities Free Content: July 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjuly2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za NOTE: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes Published after the market close on Thursday 02 July, for Friday 03 July. Early-July Macro Overlay The rotation across the market has taken a distinct turn as Q3 begins, with a dramatic cooling of short-term momentum across former safe havens and secular leaders alike. While Banks continue their absolute dominance, maintaining an iron grip on their leadership position, previous stalwarts like Luxury Goods, Telecoms, and Insurers have seen their short-term trajectories flatline into temporary digestion phases. Conversely, Consumer Discretionary and Hospitals have surged aggressively to join Banks at the apex of near-term velocity. On the negative side, the severe distribution within the commodities space remains highly fragmented; while Diversified Miners show signs of near-term stabilization, Coal Miners have completely collapsed into intense selling pressure. Apex Leaders: Banks, Consumer Discretionary, Hospitals Cooling Off: Luxury Goods, Telecoms, Insurers Deepening Weakness: Coal Miners, Chemicals Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • 💡Trade Setup: Re-Emerging Momentum; Target of 4800c.

    +30 Take Profit Opportunities: Our Capabilities > https://www.unum.capital/post/capabilities Free Content: July 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjuly2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za NOTE: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes Published after the market close on Thursday 02 July, for Friday 03 July. Quilter PLC (QLT) is emerging from a multi-month base formation with improving candle structure. Buy at 4303c or better. Stop-loss = 4015c Target = 4800c We previous discussed QLT at the following link, which was update from a previous post in which we alerted clients to opportunities in QLT at R20.78. It currently traders above R43.00 which is a 106% gain in less than 30 months. https://www.unum.capital/post/jse-asset-managers-strong-gains-for-quilter-and-coronation-fund-managers-wednesday-17-july-2024 READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

  • 🟩Take (Partial) Profit: Short Term Traders (Running 8%) ✔ Medium Term Traders: Hold For Potentially Higher Levels (Further Recovery)

    +30 Take Profit Opportunities: Our Capabilities > https://www.unum.capital/post/capabilities Free Content: July 2026 > https://www.unum.capital/post/rjuly2026 Trade Local & Global Financial Markets with Unum Capital. To get started, email tradingdesk@unum.co.za NOTE: When Published Intraday (JSE Equities), Prices Are Delayed By 15 Minutes Sibanye Stillwater (SSW) - into the buy re-entry range and rebounding 8% (was higher earlier in the day). A note for medium term traders: hold but raise your stop-loss to protect capital. Previous Post (Sunday, 21 June): How To Trade Sibanye Stillwater + Current Risks & Probabilities Earlier this month (Sunday 07 June) we highlighted the share as a buying opportunity, under the condition that the price traded into the provisional buy range. The share traded into the buy range and rebound strongly (+19%), helping traders lock in profit and generate cash flow. We have since seen the share roll back over, remaining weak but possibly offering an opportunity to buy on lower levels. The price action model highlights a 'weak' regime while the short term reading states the share is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position. The medium term reading notes aggressive selling while warning traders to wait for the lower time frames to stabilize. On the highest time frame, there is a 'probability of a small rebound'. Best probability provisional buy range: 3200c to 3420c Stop-loss: 3010c Target: Open All levels are subject to change as the news flow and price action develops. Previous Post (Friday, 12 June): 🟩Making Money on Sibanye Stillwater ✔ Take Profit On This Rebound +7.4% The share traded below 3700c (low of 3694c), giving traders an opportunity to accumulate. The share is currently higher by 7.4% from 3700c. For short term traders, the rebound creates an opportunity to take profit. Previous Post (Sunday 07 June) 💡🟩JSE Platinum Share: Bearish Trend, But Prints Below 3700c Creates Oversold Buying (Rebound) Opportunity (1) regime = high bearish momentum / approaching oversold (2) 200d breakdown (3) very poor candle structure (4) trading on neckline support (likely to break lower) (5) unfilled gap at ~4000c and ~3819c (6) aggressive selling candle take it down to the 200-week near 3700c-3400c READY TO TRADE: ACTIONABLE AREAS For active traders who look to generate cash flow on a continuous basis, determining the ‘next best probability’ level to execute against may be of immense value, specifically by helping to determine the best potential times and levels to commit capital. The blue and red horizontal lines on the chart represent a next-best-probability buy re-entry range and a next-best-probability sell re-entry range over the short term. The ranges assume no existing position is being held by a trader, while the probabilities are based on several factors, which may include: Short-term ratings and medium-term regimes Momentum indicators Horizontal or diagonal support and resistance Candle structure Moving averages and standard deviation Please note that these are short-term levels and may contrast with medium- and long-term outlooks, which are based on the weekly and monthly charts and are generally more applicable to long-term investors. These levels are subject to change based on market sentiment, subsequent price action, and company/sector-specific or macroeconomic news flow. As always, while the levels are outlined to guide your capital deployment, traders should be prepared to adjust in real-time based on the aforementioned factors. THE TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (PRICE ACTION MODEL): UNCOVER OPPORTUNITIES & ASSESS REWARD-TO-RISK It helps helps clients determine and shed light on the some of the following: The CURRENT TECHNICAL POSITION and a PRICE ACTION PROBABILITY for multiple time frames. Three (3) ‘trading’ time frames are considered: Short Term (1 to 10 days) / Medium Term (2 to 4 weeks) and Long Term (5 to 8 weeks) Whether the reward-to-risk is attractive for a buy/long position Whether a share is weak. In this case, wait until the price stabilizes before looking to enter (i.e. want until it stops going down) Whether aggressive buying is underway. In this case, do not ‘chase’ (do not buy) but instead wait for a pullback to re-enter a buy or an overextension with deteriorating candle structure to sell/short. Whether a trader can look to buy a pullback into a key moving average (continuation trade) Whether a share needs to break a range for a new trend to be determined (bullish or bearish) Whether a traders needs to monitor for a change of character that could lead to a bullish or bearish reversal Whether a share could start a consolidation phase or before continuing it’s bullish or bearish trend Whether the upward momentum is slowing (if it's in a bullish phase) Whether buyers can look to 'phase in' to a position (if it's in a bearish phase) Whether a share lacks directional bias. The data set is available in real-time (on request) The readings are subject to change as the price action develops. Lester Davids Senior Investment Analyst: Unum Capital

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